黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险评价

结合黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险宏观性、综合性、复杂性的特点,论文以生态风险景观评价方法及3S技术等为研究手段,综合考虑重点产业发展战略人为风险源及自然风险源,以生态风险受体和终点选择、风险源分析、暴露危害分析、生态风险综合评价及生态风险分区为评价步骤,揭示了重点产业发展战略潜在生态风险空间分异特征。研究结果表明：黄河中上游重点产业战略实施区可划分为三类生态风险监控区,生态风险重点监控区自然风险源分布集中,重点产业人为风险源和自然风险源交织在一起,极易发生生态风险放大效应,生态风险次重点监控区自然生态风险源分布较单一,局部重点产业人为风险源强度增强,将增加区域生态风险水平,生态风险监控区自然生态风险源分布范围较小,潜在生态风险水平相对较低。论文探索了战略环评生态风险评价方法和评价思路,为国内重点产业发展战略生态风险评价提供了借鉴。     

Modelling landscape effects on density-contact rate relationships of deer in eastern Alberta: Implications for chronic wasting disease

Managing wildlife diseases requires an understanding of disease transmission, which may be strongly affected by host population density and landscape features. Transmission models are typically fit from time-series disease prevalence data and modelled based on how the contact rate among hosts is affected by density, which is often assumed to be a linear (density-dependent transmission) or constant (frequency-dependent transmission) relationship. However, long-term time-series data is unavailable for emerging diseases, and this approach cannot account for independent effects of landscape. We developed a mechanistic model based on ecological data to empirically derive the contact rate-density relationship in white-tailed and mule deer in an enzootic region of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Alberta, Canada and to determine whether it was affected by landscape. Using data collected from aerial surveys and GPS-telemetry, we developed empirical relationships predicting deer group size, home range size, and habitat selection to iteratively simulate deer distributions across a range of densities and landscapes. We calculated a relative measure of total per-capita contact rate, which is proportional to the number of other deer contacted per individual per unit time, for each distribution as the sum of pairwise contact rates between a target deer and all other individuals. Each pairwise contact rate was estimated from an empirical relationship developed from GPS-telemetry data predicting pairwise contact rates as a function of home range overlap and landscape structure. Total per-capita contact rates increased as a saturating function of density, supporting a transmission model intermediate between density- and frequency-dependent transmission. This pattern resulted from group sizes that reached an asymptote with increasing deer density, although this relationship was mediated by tree and shrub coverage in the landscape, such that in heavily wooded areas, the contact rate saturated at much lower densities. These results suggest that CWD management based on herd reductions, which require a density-dependent contact rate to be effective, may have variable effects on disease across a single management region. The novel mechanistic approach we employed for estimating effects of density and landscape on transmission is a powerful complement to typical data-fitting approaches for modelling disease transmission.     

Predicting modes of spatial change from state-and-transition models

State-and-transition models (STMs) can represent many different types of landscape change, from simple gradient-driven transitions to complex, (pseudo-) random patterns. While previous applications of STMs have focused on individual states and transitions, this study addresses broader-scale modes of spatial change based on the entire network of states and transitions. STMs are treated as mathematical graphs, and several metrics from algebraic graph theory are applied—spectral radius, algebraic connectivity, and the S-metric. These indicate, respectively, the amplification of environmental change by state transitions, the relative rate of propagation of state changes through the landscape, and the degree of system structural constraints on the spatial propagation of state transitions. The analysis is illustrated by application to the Gualalupe/San Antonio River delta, Texas, with soil types as representations of system states. Concepts of change in deltaic environments are typically based on successional patterns in response to forcings such as sea level change or river inflows. However, results indicate more complex modes of change associated with amplification of changes in system states, relatively rapid spatial propagation of state transitions, and some structural constraints within the system. The implications are that complex, spatially variable state transitions are likely, constrained by local (within-delta) environmental gradients and initial conditions. As in most applications, the STM used in this study is a representation of observed state transitions. While the usual predictive application of STMs is identification of local state changes associated with, e.g., management strategies, the methods presented here show how STMs can be used at a broader scale to identify landscape scale modes of spatial change.     

基于景观中性模型的不同竞争力外来种入侵对栖息地毁坏的响应

栖息地毁坏和生物入侵被认为是全球物种多样性的两大威胁,也是当前研究的热点。同时,两者的共同作用将比单独作用所带来的物种多样性丧失更大。本文基于竞争-扩散均衡机制,考虑了外来种的不同竞争力,结合景观中性模型和元胞自动机模型,模拟了外来种入侵对栖息地毁坏（栖息地破碎和面积丧失）的响应。研究结果表明：1）外来种入侵成功将首先威胁竞争力与其相邻的弱物种;2）栖息地毁坏与种间竞争共同决定着外来种入侵的成功与否。当栖息地破碎促进了与外来种竞争力相邻的本地强物种时,将会抑制入侵;当其抑制了与外来种竞争力相邻的本地强物种时,则会促进入侵。当栖息地丧失促进了外来种相邻的本地强物种时,将会抑制入侵;当栖息地丧失抑制了外来种相邻的本地强物种,将一定程度地促进入侵,但随着丧失面积的增加,则转为抑制。因此,为了抑制不同竞争力的外来种入侵,应采取不同的栖息地保护策略,并保护和促进其竞争力相邻的本地强物种。     

基于RS/GIS的大辽河口湿地景观格局时空变化研究

基于1988、1995、2001和2007年的四期TM数据,应用GIS/RS技术与景观格局分析软件FRAGSTATS,定量分析大辽河口地区湿地景观格局的动态变化。结果表明,自1988年以来,大辽河口地区的湿地面积逐年增加,湿地景观多样性指数和均匀度指数呈现先降后升的趋势,景观破碎化程度增强。湿地类型变化主要表现在大量的自然湿地转化为人工湿地或人工景观,具体表现在转化为建筑用地、水稻田、养殖区。1988~1995年期间,大辽河口地区的环境质量下降,该地区生物生活环境的多样性降低,造成了一些物种种群数量的减少甚至消失;但是自1995年以后,该地区的景观多样性和均匀性升高,抗干扰能力增强,环境质量有所提高。研究区湿地景观格局的动态变化主要是受自然条件和人为活动干扰共同作用的结果。     

Does the risk of encountering lions influence African herbivore behaviour at waterholes?

A central question in the study of predator–prey relationships is to what extent prey behaviour is determined by avoidance of predators. Here, we test whether the long-term risk of encountering lions and the presence of lions in the vicinity influence the behaviour of large African herbivores at waterholes through avoidance of high-risk areas, increases in group size, changes in temporal niche or changes in the time spent in waterhole areas. In Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe, we monitored waterholes to study the behaviour of nine herbivore species under different risks of encountering lions. We radio-collared 26 lions in the study area which provided the opportunity to monitor whether lions were present during observation sessions and to map longer-term seasonal landscapes of risk of encountering lions. Our results show that the preferred prey species for lions (buffalo, kudu and giraffe) avoided risky waterholes. Group size increased as encounter risk increased for only two species (wildebeest and zebra), but this effect was not strong. Interestingly, buffalo avoided the hours of the day which are dangerous when the long-term and short-term risks of encountering lions were high, and all species showed avoidance of waterhole use at night times when lions were in the vicinity. This illustrates well how prey can make temporal adjustments to avoid dangerous periods coinciding with predator hunting. Additionally, many herbivores spent more time accessing water to drink when the long- and short-term risks of encountering lions were high, and they showed longer potential drinking time when the long-term risk of encountering lions was high, suggesting higher levels of vigilance. This study illustrates the diversity of behavioural adjustments to the risk of encountering a predator and how prey respond differently to temporal variations in this risk.     

The role of local and landscape level measures of greenness in modelling boreal plant species richness

Measurements of primary productivity and its heterogeneity based on satellite images can provide useful estimates of species richness and distribution patterns. However, species richness at a given site may depend not only on local habitat quality and productivity but also on the characteristics of the surrounding landscape. In this study we investigated whether the predictions of species richness of plant families in northern boreal landscape in Finland can be improved by incorporating greenness information from the surrounding landscape, as derived from remotely sensed data (mean, maximum, standard deviation and range values of NDVI derived from Landsat ETM), into local greenness models. Using plant species richness data of 28 plant families from 440 grid cells of 25 ha in size, generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted into three different sets of explanatory variables: (1) local greenness only, (2) landscape greenness only, and (3) combined local and landscape greenness. The derived richness–greenness relationships were mainly unimodal or positively increasing but varied between different plant families, and depended also on whether greenness was measured as mean or maximum greenness. Incorporation of landscape level greenness variables improved significantly both the explanatory power and cross-validation statistics of the models including only local greenness variables. Landscape greenness information derived from remote sensing data integrated with local information has thus the potentiality to improve predictive assessments of species richness over extensive and inaccessible areas, especially in high-latitude landscapes. Overall, the significant relationship between plants and surrounding landscape quality detected here suggests that landscape factors should be considered in preserving species richness of boreal environments, as well as in conservation planning for biodiversity in other environments.     

The pattern of species turnover resulting from stochastic population dynamics: The model and field data

The model of random population dynamics in a sampling site returns geometric distribution of longevities of continuous presence (=persistence) and Poisson distribution of the presence–absence transitions. This discrete-time stochastic process describes the presence–absence pattern observed in the beetles surveyed 6 years on Mount Carmel, Israel. Homogeneous pools of species mostly on the Families rank, exhibit the predicted by the model patterns. Conformity to an ergodic hypothesis is the criterion of ecological homogeneity. This criterion assumes the equivalence of short-term behavior of entire pool and long-term behavior of any species from this pool. The pool of all 801 species of Order Coleoptera does not match the model. Thus a taxon of an arbitrary rank may not be considered a priory as a unit of ecological study. Determined from field data parameters of the model are biased and magnitude of the bias depends on longevity of the survey. Parameter of distribution depends also on species tolerance, which is the level adaptation of given species to given environment in given time interval. Random process of species turnover may be considered as a game of species to gain their presence against deteriorative fluctuations of environmental conditions.     

Challenges of simulating complex environmental systems at the landscape scale: A controversial dialogue between two cups of espresso

With the advancement of computational systems and the development of model integration concepts, complexity of environmental model systems increased. In contrast to that, theory and knowledge about > environmental systems as well as the capability for environmental systems analyses remained, to a large extent, unchanged. As a consequence, model conceptualization, data gathering, and validation, have faced new challenges that hardly can be tackled by modellers alone. In this discourse-like review, we argue that modelling with reliable simulations of human-environmental interactions necessitate linking modelling and simulation research much stronger to science fields such as landscape ecology, community ecology, eco-hydrology, etc. It thus becomes more and more important to identify the adequate degree of complexity in environmental models (which is not only a technical or methodological question), to ensure data availability, and to test model performance. Even equally important, providing problem specific answers to environmental problems using simulation tools requires addressing end-user and stakeholder requirements during early stages of problem development. In doing so, we avoid modelling and simulation as an end of its own.     

A landscape ecological approach to countryside planning

Extensive losses of semi‐natural rural biotopes have led to pressures for conservation and habitat creation. Of particular concern is the loss of large‐scale structure and regional distinctiveness. If this is to be regained, planners will require both an effective body of theory relating to large‐scale visual and ecological cohesion, and effective methods of implementation. This study reviews the value of landscape ecology as a theoretical framework and discusses some applications, with particular reference to the re‐forestation of lowland Britain.