Network inclusion probabilities and Horvitz-Thompson estimation for adaptive simple Latin square sampling

Consider a survey of a plant or animal species in which abundance or presence/absence will be recorded. Further assume that the presence of the plant or animal is rare and tends to cluster. A sampling design will be implemented to determine which units to sample within the study region. Adaptive cluster sampling designs Thompson (1990) are sampling designs that are implemented by first selecting a sample of units according to some conventional probability sampling design. Then, whenever a specified criterion is satisfied upon measuring the variable of interest, additional units are adaptively sampled in neighborhoods of those units satisfying the criterion. The success of these adaptive designs depends on the probabilities of finding the rare clustered events, called networks. This research uses combinatorial generating functions to calculate network inclusion probabilities associated with a simple Latin square sample. It will be shown that, in general, adaptive simple Latin square sampling when compared to adaptive simple random sampling will (i) yield higher network inclusion probabilities and (ii) provide Horvitz-Thompson estimators with smaller variability.     

Parameter uncertainties in the modelling of vegetation dynamics—Effects on tree community structure and ecosystem functioning in European forest biomes

Dynamic vegetation models are useful tools for analysing terrestrial ecosystem processes and their interactions with climate through variations in carbon and water exchange. Long-term changes in structure and composition (vegetation dynamics) caused by altered competitive strength between plant functional types (PFTs) are attracting increasing attention as controls on ecosystem functioning and potential feedbacks to climate. Imperfect process knowledge and limited observational data restrict the possibility to parameterise these processes adequately and potentially contribute to uncertainty in model results. This study addresses uncertainty among parameters scaling vegetation dynamic processes in a process-based ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, designed for regional-scale studies, with the objective to assess the extent to which this uncertainty propagates to additional uncertainty in the tree community structure (in terms of the tree functional types present and their relative abundance) and thus to ecosystem functioning (carbon storage and fluxes). The results clearly indicate that the uncertainties in parameterisation can lead to a shift in competitive balance, most strikingly among deciduous tree PFTs, with dominance of either shade-tolerant or shade-intolerant PFTs being possible, depending on the choice of plausible parameter values. Despite this uncertainty, our results indicate that the resulting effect on ecosystem functioning is low. Since the vegetation dynamics in LPJ-GUESS are representative for the more complex Earth system models now being applied within ecosystem and climate research, we assume that our findings will be of general relevance. We suggest that, in terms of carbon storage and fluxes, the heavier parameterisation requirement of the processes involved does not widen the overall uncertainty in model predictions.     

Fish-Passage Facilities as Ecological Traps in Large Neotropical Rivers

Abstract:  At present most of the large rivers of South America are impounded. Management plans historically have relied on the construction of fish passages, specifically ladders, to mitigate the impact of these waterway blockages on fisheries and biodiversity. Nevertheless, the design of these facilities is not ecologically sound and they are not monitored continually. Consequently, the real role of South American fish passages in fisheries and biodiversity management is unclear and the results of some studies suggest that ladders are problematic in fish conservation. We examined the characteristics and negative aspects of fish passages within a larger context and considered the notion that these facilities are ecological traps in some Brazilian impoundments. Four conditions are required to characterize a fish passage as an ecological trap: (1) attractive forces leading fish to ascend the passage; (2) unidirectional migratory movements (upstream); (3) the environment above the passage has poor conditions for fish recruitment (e.g., the absence of spawning grounds and nursery areas); and (4) the environment below the passage has a proper structure for recruitment. When these conditions exist individuals move to poor-quality habitats, fitness is reduced, and populations are threatened. To exemplify this situation we analyzed two case studies in the upper Paraná River basin, Brazil, in which the four conditions were met and migratory fish populations were declining. If passages work as ecological traps, regional fisheries will be in danger of collapse and conservation policies toward biodiversity will become more difficult and ineffective. The situation demands the closing of the passage in conjunction with alternative management actions to preserve system functionality, especially the conservation of critical habitats downstream and the restoration of damaged habitats in the region.     

Learning for sustainability through CIDA's “Community-based pest management in Central American agriculture” project: a deliberative,experiential and iterative process

Community-based approaches to environmental management provide opportunities for public engagement in local decision-making processes. This qualitative case study examines learning as resulted from participation in CIDA's “Community-based pest management in Central American agriculture” project. Outcomes include learning about alternative farming practices, human and natural environments, and safer pesticide use. Many participants learnt how to work more effectively with rural communities. For some, this changed their perspective about life and their role in society. Activities that fostered learning outcomes, including sustainability-related outcomes, were: planning and implementing project activities, experimenting on farm demonstration plots, participating in outreach workshops, and students doing rural practica. The learning process, involving international university collaborators and rural participants, is analyzed particularly as it relates to cultural context, collective action, and sustainability. Findings affirm that how the public participates in environmental management decisions influences the breadth and depth of learning outcomes; practical and policy implications are discussed.     

欧美新污染物监测进展及启示

新污染物监测是新污染物环境和健康风险评估及管控的重要基础。欧美发达国家环保部门在20世纪70年代就开展了新污染物监测工作,并且2000年后形成了相应的监测制度,而我国新污染物监测工作正处于业务化起步阶段。通过深入调研欧美国家水中新污染物监测为主的发展历程、监测清单、监测要求等内容,总结出3个特点:建立动态更新的新污染物清单监测机制;将规范的新污染物监测方法作为开展监测的重要前提;充分考虑监测可行性和经济成本。结合我国现阶段新污染物监管需求及监测现状,提出我国新污染物监测工作的3点建议:明晰国家、地方新污染物监测的职责分工,建立优先监测新污染物清单动态更新机制;加强新污染物监测能力建设,建立新污染物监测标准体系;循序渐进开展新污染物监测,注重监测的可行性和可持续性。     

Understanding large-scale deforestation in southern Jinotega, Nicaragua from 1978 to 1999 through the examination of changes in land use and land cover

Nicaragua, home to the largest remaining extent of rainforest in Central America (total surface area) and to a significant indigenous population, has lost approximately half of its forest cover since 1950. This major and rapid loss of forest cover has been explained as the consequence of an eastward moving agricultural frontier that cuts through the region of Jinotega. If the current deforestation rate continues, the country could lose its remaining forest cover over the course of the next two decades; therefore, it is essential that the dynamics and relationships of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in this region are understood. To examine LUCC in Nicaragua over time, Landsat imagery from the southern portion of the region of Jinotega, taken in 1978, 1987, and 1999 was utilized. A remote-sensing method, supervised classification, which allows for the grouping of spectrally similar values for each year, followed by an image change detection analysis (postclassification comparison) was conducted. Groundtruthing (field validation) was conducted in 2006 to validate the data, which yielded increasing overall accuracy rates of 71.68% for 1978, 82.35% for 1987, and 84.38% for 1999. The classification and change detection results showed that if the agricultural cultivation overtook this region, it happened before 1978. Therefore, the possibility that either deforestation did not actually occur along an agricultural frontier or that it was located further east exists; this would be an interesting subject for future studies. There was, however, clear evidence of increased forest cover from 1987 to 1999 near the urban center, correlating with the enforced reforestation law in the city of Jinotega.     

The effectiveness of market-based conservation in the tropics: forest certification in Ecuador and Bolivia

During the last decade, forest certification has gained momentum as a market-based conservation strategy in tropical forest countries. Certification has been promoted to enhance forest management in countries where governance capacities are insufficient to adequately manage natural resources and enforce pertinent regulations, given that certification relies largely on non-governmental organisations and private businesses. However, at present there are few tropical countries with large areas of certified forests. In this study, we conducted semi-structured stakeholder interviews in Ecuador and Bolivia to identify key framework conditions that influence the costs and benefits for companies to switch from conventional to certified forestry operations. Bolivia has a much greater relative area under certified forest management than Ecuador and also significantly more certified producers. The difference in the success of certification between both countries is particularly notable because Bolivia is a poorer country with more widespread corruption, and is landlocked with less access to export routes. Despite these factors, several characteristics of the Bolivian forest industry contribute to lower additional costs of certified forest management compared to Ecuador. Bolivia has stronger government enforcement of forestry regulations a fact that increases the cost of illegal logging, management units are larger, and vertical integration in the process chain from timber extraction to markets is higher. Moreover, forestry laws in Bolivia are highly compatible with certification requirements, and the government provides significant tax benefits to certified producers. Results from this study suggest that certification can be successful in countries where governments have limited governance capacity. However, the economic incentives for certification do not only arise from favourable market conditions. Certification is likely to be more successful where governments enforce forestry laws, provide financial incentives for certified forestry, and provide land tenure security, and where large-scale and vertically integrated forestry operations are commercially feasible. For this reason, at present, there are few developing countries where forest certification is likely to achieve widespread success.     

Gaseous elemental mercury concentration in atmosphere at urban and remote sites in China

An investigation of gaseous elemental mercury concentration in atmosphere was conducted at Beijing and Guangzhou urban, Yangtze Delta regional sites and China Global Atmosphere Watch Baseline Observatory (CGAWBO) in Mt. Waliguan of remote continental area of China. High temporal resolved data were obtained using automated mercury analyzer RA-915 . Results showed that the overall hourly mean Hg0 concentrations in Mt. Waliguan were 1.7± 1.1 ng/m3 in summer and 0.6±0.08 ng/m3 in winter. The concentration in Yangtze Delta regional site was 5.4±4.1 ng/m3, which was much higher than those in Waliguan continental background area and also higher than that found in North America and Europe rural areas. In Beijing urban area the overall hourly mean Hg0 concentrations were 8.3±3.6 ng/m3 in winter, 6.5±5.2 ng/m3 in spring, 4.9±3.3 ng/m3 in summer, and 6.7±3.5 ng/m3 in autumn, respectively, and the concentration was 13.5±7.1 ng/m3 in Guangzhou site. The mean concentration reached the lowest value at 14:00 and the highest at 02:00 or 20:00 in all monitoring campaigns in Beijing and Guangzhou urban areas, which contrasted with the results measured in Yangtze Delta regional site and Mt. Waliguan. The features of concentration and diurnal variation of Hg0 in Beijing and Guangzhou implied the importance of local anthropogenic sources in contributing to the high Hg0 concentration in urban areas of China. Contrary seasonal variation patterns of Hg0 concentration were found between urban and remote sites. In Beijing the highest Hg0concentration was in winter and the lowest in summer, while in Mt. Waliguan the Hg0 concentration in summer was higher than that in winter. These indicated that different processes and factors controlled Hg0 concentration in urban, regional and remote areas.     

Estimating Climate Resilience for Conservation across Geophysical Settings

Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high‐scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high‐quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High‐scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies—for every geophysical setting—sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands.     

Possible treatments for arsenic removal in Latin American waters for human consumption

Considering the toxic effects of arsenic, the World Health Organization recommends a maximum concentration of 10 μg L⁻¹ of arsenic in drinking water. Latin American populations present severe health problems due to consumption of waters with high arsenic contents. The physicochemical properties of surface and groundwaters are different from those of other more studied regions of the planet, and the problem is still publicly unknown. Methods for arsenic removal suitable to be applied in Latin American waters are here summarized and commented. Conventional technologies (oxidation, coagulation-coprecipitation, adsorption, reverse osmosis, use of ion exchangers) are described, but emphasis is made in emergent decentralized economical methods as the use of inexpensive natural adsorbents, solar light technologies or biological treatments, as essential to palliate the situation in poor, isolated and dispersed populations of Latin American regions.