Matching the Multiple Scales of Conservation with the Multiple Scales of Climate Change

Abstract:  To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare.     

Applying Hierarchical Loglinear Models to Nonfatal Underground Coal Mine Accidents for Safety Management

Underground mining is considered to be one of the most dangerous industries and mining remains the most hazardous occupation. Categorical analysis of accident records may present valuable information for preventing accidents. In this study, hierarchical loglinear analysis was applied to occupational injuries that occurred in an underground coal mine. The main factors affecting the accidents were defined as occupation, area, reason, accident time and part of body affected. By considering subfactors of the main factors, multiway contingency tables were prepared and, thus, the probabilities that might affect nonfatal injuries were investigated. At the end of the study, important accident risk factors and job groups with a high probability of being exposed to those risk factors were determined. This article presents important information on decreasing the number accidents in underground coal mines.     

Analytical Study of the Heat Loss Attenuation by Clothing on Thermal Manikins Under Radiative Heat Loads

For wearers of protective clothing in radiation environments there are no quantitative guidelines available for the effect of a radiative heat load on heat exchange. Under the European Union funded project ThermProtect an analytical effort was defined to address the issue of radiative heat load while wearing protective clothing. As within the ThermProtect project much information has become available from thermal manikin experiments in thermal radiation environments, these sets of experimental data are used to verify the analytical approach. The analytical approach provided a good prediction of the heat loss in the manikin experiments, 95% of the variance was explained by the model. The model has not yet been validated at high radiative heat loads and neglects some physical properties of the radiation emissivity. Still, the analytical approach provides a pragmatic approach and may be useful for practical implementation in protective clothing standards for moderate thermal radiation environments.     

Air‐Water Temperature Relationships in the Trout Streams of Southeastern Minnesota's Carbonate‐Sandstone Landscape

Carbonate‐sandstone geology in southeastern Minnesota creates a heterogeneous landscape of springs, seeps, and sinkholes that supply groundwater into streams. Air temperatures are effective predictors of water temperature in surface‐water dominated streams. However, no published work investigates the relationship between air and water temperatures in groundwater‐fed streams (GWFS) across watersheds. We used simple linear regressions to examine weekly air‐water temperature relationships for 40 GWFS in southeastern Minnesota. A 40‐stream, composite linear regression model has a slope of 0.38, an intercept of 6.63, and R² of 0.83. The regression models for GWFS have lower slopes and higher intercepts in comparison to surface‐water dominated streams. Regression models for streams with high R² values offer promise for use as predictive tools for future climate conditions. Climate change is expected to alter the thermal regime of groundwater‐fed systems, but will do so at a slower rate than surface‐water dominated systems. A regression model of intercept vs. slope can be used to identify streams for which water temperatures are more meteorologically than groundwater controlled, and thus more vulnerable to climate change. Such relationships can be used to guide restoration vs. management strategies to protect trout streams.     

室内空气污染预测方法的实证研究

在大型(30m3)、小型(1m3)环境箱实验获得数据的基础上构建释放模型,并将模拟结果和现场监测得到的浓度水平进行对比,对开发的室内空气污染预测方法进行了实证研究.以一新装修房间为例,分别利用大型和小型环境箱实验,研究了复杂整装材料和简单层状材料的释放规律,建立了相应材料的污染物释放模型;依据单元内物质守恒理论和污染物充分混合的假设将释放模型组合,建立了室内空气污染预测方法,并预测了该房间甲醛和TVOC(total volatile organic compounds)浓度的变化过程.在考虑了0.03ACH(air change per hour)的换气率之后,模型预测与现场监测的污染物浓度变化趋势基本吻合,甲醛和TVOC污染预测误差(正则化标准差)分别为2.8%和1.6%.模型分析表明,各污染源对于甲醛污染的贡献,家具＞涂料＞地板;对于TVOC污染的贡献,涂料＞地板＞家具.结论表明,该预测方法可以真实反映现场污染物浓度变化趋势,可以用来分析各污染源对于整体污染的贡献、指导装修材料的选择和作为室内污染评估和控制的有效工具.     

主动脉动气流分选处理废弃催化剂

废弃催化剂重整后含有富集贵金属的海绵体和烧结磁珠,二者的有效分选是提纯贵金属富集体的重要环节。主动脉动气流分选装置能够对此物料进行干法分选,避免了湿法分选对物料的改性,有利于贵金属富集体的后续提纯。介绍了主动脉动气流分选装置的结构,分析主动脉动气流分选机理及其动力学模型。通过实际物料进行分选试验。结果表明,在脉动频率为7/3 Hz,气流流速为2.50~6.00 m/s时,总分选效率Ef高于94.50%;在气流流速为3.33 m/s时,分选效率最高,总分选效率Ef可达97.63%。     

水华对沉积物中氮的转化和去除的影响

湖泊富营养化和水华暴发已经成为突出的环境问题之一,了解水华对湖泊氮素的转化和去除的影响,对于削减湖泊氮负荷至关重要.本文研究了水华对沉积物中氮转化和氮转化相关功能基因的影响,并采用结构方程模型分析了水华影响湖泊中氮转化和去除的途径.结果表明,与厌氧氨氧化相比,反硝化作用是太湖沉积物氮削减的主要途径,对沉积物中总溶解性氮去除率的解释度为42. 3%.水华可以直接造成沉积物中TDN和TOC量的增加,提高厌氧氨氧化菌、nir S和nir K的基因丰度,并且间接提高沉积物中氨氮和硝酸盐的浓度,通过增强厌氧氨氧化和反硝化过程加速沉积物中氮的去除.     

Identification and quantification of the hydrological impacts of imperviousness in urban catchments: a review

Urbanisation produces numerous changes in the natural environments it replaces. The impacts include habitat fragmentation and changes to both the quality and quantity of the stormwater runoff, and result in changes to hydrological systems. This review integrates research in relatively diverse areas to examine how the impacts of urban imperviousness on hydrological systems can be quantified and modelled. It examines the nature of reported impacts of urbanisation on hydrological systems over four decades, including the effects of changes in imperviousness within catchments, and some inconsistencies in studies of the impacts of urbanisation. The distribution of imperviousness within urban areas is important in understanding the impacts of urbanisation and quantification requires detailed characterisation of urban areas. As a result most mapping of urban areas uses remote sensing techniques and this review examines a range of techniques using medium and high resolution imagery, including spectral unmixing. The third section examines the ways in which scientists and hydrological and environmental engineers model and quantify water flows in urban areas, the nature of hydrological models and methods for their calibration. The final section examines additional factors which influence the impact of impervious surfaces and some uncertainties that exist in current knowledge.     

Managing the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Gallocanta Basin,NE-Spain

The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable.     

煤巷掘进过程中粉尘浓度影响因素分析

为了掌握煤巷掘进过程中粉尘浓度变化的影响因素,根据气固两相流理论,针对矿井掘进工作面的特点,采用计算流体力学的离散相模型（DPM）考察了掘进巷道风速、风筒直径、风筒出风口到掘进工作面距离以及风筒的悬挂高度对粉尘浓度变化的影响。结果发现：当掘进巷道风速为0.25-4 m/s时,提高巷道内的通风风速,可以降低巷道内的粉尘浓度,缩短呼吸性粉尘浓度达到稳定的时间,减小工作面粉尘的危害;有利于通风除尘的风筒相关参数为风筒直径0.4-0.6 m、风筒出风口到掘进工作面距离6-7 m、风筒悬挂高度2.0-2.2 m。