Beach topography mapping—a comparsion of techniques

A comparison of current techniques for measuring elevations in the beach and near-shore zones is presented. Techniques considered include traditional methods such as ground survey along transects and airborne stereophotogrammetry, and also newer methods based on remote sensing such as airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR). The approach taken was to identify a representative group of users of beach elevation data, elicit their requirements regarding these data, then assess how well the different methods met these requirements on both technical and financial grounds. Potential users of beach height measurements include those concerned with coastal defence, coastal environmental management economic exploitation of the intertidal zone, and coastal flood forecasting. Three test areas in the UK were identified covering a range of such users and also different beach types. A total of 17 basic user requirements were elicited. For each requirement each method was scored according to the degree to which it could meet the requirement. Total scores were calculated and each method ranked. This was undertaken for all the requirements together, for a subset relating to survey of narrow beaches, and for a subset relating to survey of wide beaches. Approximate costs were also established for the top six methods. Airborne stereophotogrammetry proved to be the best method technically, but was also the most expensive. Ground survey provides very good technical performance on narrower beaches at moderate cost. Airborne LiDAR can achieve good technical performance on both narrow and wide beaches at lower cost than ground survey. The satellite-based waterline method was also inexpensive and gave good results on wide beaches. An overall conclusion is that, while the traditional methods of ground survey and airborne stereophotogrammetry remain the best for engineering-related surveys requiring high levels of accuracy, airborne LiDAR in particular looks set to have a significant impact on beach survey for applications for which a vertical accuracy of 20 cm is acceptable, provided that its technology evolves satisfactorily.     

Uncertainty in integrated coastal zone management

Uncertainty plays a major role in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A large part of this uncertainty is connected to our lack of knowledge of the integrated functioning of the coastal system and to the increasing need to act in a pro-active way. Increasingly, coastal managers are forced to take decisions based on information which is surrounded by uncertainties. Different types of uncertainty can be identified and the role of uncertainty in decision making, scientific uncertainty and model uncertainty in ICZM is discussed. The issue of spatial variability, which is believed to be extremely important in ICZM and represents a primary source of complexity and uncertainty, is also briefly introduced. Some principles for complex model building are described as an approach to handle, in a balanced way, the available data, information, knowledge and experience. The practical method of sensitivity analysis is then introduced as a method for a posterior evaluation of uncertainty in simulation models. We conclude by emphasising the need for the definition of an analysis plan in order to handle model uncertainty in a balanced way during the decision making process.     

环境约束下大都市城郊土地利用结构评价——基于信息熵和非期望产出模型分析

土地利用过程中会产生期望和非期望产出,针对以往土地利用结构评价中忽略环境产生的非期望产出而影响土地利用结构效率真实性问题,以大都市城郊的上海青浦区为例,宏观上,运用信息熵模型对该区2005~2014年土地利用结构有序性进行评价;微观上,运用非期望产出模型测算青浦区研究期间土地利用结构效率,为寻求区域土地利用结构效率损失的原因及改善途径提供参考。结果表明:(1)2005~2014年青浦区土地利用结构信息熵值时序上呈现"M"形变化趋势,空间上由中部向东西两翼递减;(2)2005~2014年青浦区土地利用结构效率变化趋势在时间序列上呈现"W"形变化趋势,空间上由中部的中心城区向东西两翼递减格局;(3)将环境的负产出纳入非期望产出模型进行土地利用结构效率评价,能更加准确的反映土地利用结构效率的真实性;(4)影响青浦区土地利用结构效率水平变化的主要因素为纯技术效率的变化,资源过度消耗和环境污染物排放过量是制约青浦区土地利用结构效率提升的主要原因。针对土地利用结构效率损失的原因及区域差异提出效率提升途径。研究结果可为青浦区土地利用结构优化和可持续发展提供科学借鉴。     

大连城市环境评价与城市发展定量研究

通过对大连城市环境系统的考察,设立了完整的评价指标体系,运用模糊优选理论建立模糊评价模型,对大连城市环境进行了定量研究,并结合经济和城市化情况进行了分析。研究结果表明:城市环境质量总体上是在逐年提高的,但从2002年以来发展较为平缓。经济和城市化情况有较大发展,但仍有不足之处。     

《燃煤二氧化硫排放污染防治技术政策》绩效定量评估

基于全国46个城市(其中38个城市位于"两控区")1996~2005年的面板数据,运用difference-in-differ-ences(DID)模型对《燃煤二氧化硫排放污染防治技术政策》的绩效进行了定量评估。结果表明,该政策的实施对于降低工业二氧化硫排放量起到积极作用,使"两控区"城市年工业二氧化硫的排放量平均降低了19.3%。     

Roles of semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds in secondary organic aerosol formation and its implication: A review

Secondary organic aerosol(SOA) is a very important component of fine particulate matter(PM_2.5) in the atmosphere. However, the simulations of SOA, which could help to elucidate the detailed mechanism of SOA formation and quantify the roles of various precursors, remains unsatisfactory, as SOA levels are frequently underestimated. It has been found that the performance of SOA formation models can be significantly improved by incorporating the emission and evolution of semivolatile and ...     

关于室内装修有害气体烘焙排风稀释技术数值研究

依据实测数据,应用数值计算手法,对烘焙排风稀释技术不同工况下总挥发性有机化合物的排除量、烘焙排风稀释阶段室内空气中总挥发性有机化合物的浓度变化进行计算并讨论烘焙温度、换气次数对去除效果的影响。     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

数据挖掘在预测组织事故防控效果中的应用*

为进一步探索数据挖据技术在组织事故预防工作中的融入性与适用性,基于24Model构建事故预控基础模型,通过预测准确率数值及接受者操作特性曲线（ROC曲线）对比分析随机森林（RF）、支持向量机(SVM)、决策树（DT）与神经网络（NN）4种方法对组织事故防控效果的预测性能。结果表明:针对事故率控制（Y1）、职业危害预防（Y2）、财产损失3类预测目标（Y3）,RF方法均能达到较高的准确率及稳定性,具有较优的预测性能。根据特征重要度（FI）排序,明确对组织事故水平影响最显著的因素为安全实践活动认知（SC5）及安全管理程序文件（SMS3）,FI值均大于0.150 0。研究结果可为有效预测组织事故防控效果提供方法依据,同时为企业安全工作的规划设计提供思路。     

喀斯特峡谷区工程性缺水原因及解决途径——以贵州省花江峡谷示范区为例

喀斯特峡谷区河深坡陡,地下水深埋,水资源利用难度大,加之经济和水利工程薄弱,是贵州省工程性缺水的典型区域。通过对花江峡谷示范区工程性缺水的原因剖析,提出一系列解决工程性缺水问题的措施,如雨水收集、表层喀斯特水和基岩裂隙水的开发利用、节水、加强对水利工程设施的管理和维护、加大水利投入以及提高植被覆盖率等,这对解决喀斯特峡谷及类似区域的工程性缺水问题有一定的指导和参考意义。