Integrating disaster risk reduction in national development planning: experience and challenges of Jamaica

It is generally recognised by the disaster risk management and development communities that disasters have a negative impact on development, and indeed can set back development by years. This realisation led to a new paradigm for the management of hazards and their impacts, namely an integrated approach which emphasises disaster risk reduction being incorporated into national development planning. Awareness, however, does not necessarily translate into implementation. ‘Reduce the underlying risk factors’, Priority for Action 4 of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, reported the lowest average score for progress of the five priority areas. Challenges to progress, as reported by Governments included inappropriate development practices, high levels of poverty and other factors which increase vulnerability. Various authors have recognised the difficulty of consistently and successfully integrating disaster risk reduction into development planning. This integration is particularly challenging for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) which face high exposure to hazards, vulnerable populations and limited resources, often both human and financial. The efforts of Jamaica, a Caribbean SIDS, at integrating disaster risk reduction into national development, and some factors which proved to be important in making progress are presented here. This retrospective paper is written from the perspective of a participant observer and traces developments in disaster risk management over three decades, 1980–2010. Integration and inclusiveness, use of quantitative methods and application of risk assessments are identified as being important in gaining acceptance for disaster risk reduction.     

基于RF-ELM模型的边坡稳定性预测研究

为实现对边坡稳定性的有效预测,将极限学习机算法与旋转森林算法相结合,并依据影响边坡稳定性的六项重要因素,建立了边坡稳定性预测的RF-ELM预测模型。该模型是以极限学习机算法为基分类器,以旋转森林算法为框架的集成学习模型,利用UCI数据库中三组数据集验证了该集成模型确实提高了ELM的预测性能。将RF-ELM模型应用于边坡稳定性的预测问题中,结合39组工程实例数据进行预测实验,结果表明该模型具有较高的预测精度,可有效的对边坡稳定性进行预测。     

Fluorescence excitation-emission matrix combined with regional integration analysis to characterize the composition and transformation of humic and fulvic acids from landfill at different stabilization stages

Fluorescence excitation-emission matrix spectroscopy (EEMs) combined with fluorescence regional integration (FRI) analysis was used to investigate the composition and transformation of humic acid (HA) and fulvic acid (FA) from landfill. The EEMs of HAs at different landfill ages were characterized by two typical fluorescence chromophores with Ex/Em pairs at Ex = 420-470 nm/Em = 490-530 nm and Ex = 345-375 nm/Em = 450-465 nm. EEMs of FA were featured by other two distinctly different fluorophores with Ex/Em pairs at Ex = 315-335 nm/Em = 420-440 nm and Ex = 255-275 nm/Em = 425-455 nm. The results show that HA extracted from the refuse disposed in the year of 1989 was formed by connecting small-condensed aromatic structures with protein-like chains. Compared with HA extracted from the refuse disposed in the year of 1992, HA extracted from the refuse of 1996 had a higher fluorescence intensity and lower r_(B,A) (the ratio of the fluorescence intensities of peak B and peak A) value. It contained low molar mass components, low aromatic condensation degree, and more easily oxidized substituents. This indicates that the landfill time strongly affects the EEMs characteristics of HA, and that the humification degree of HA increases with the landfill time. A red shift to a longer wavelength region and an increase of fluorescence intensity were observed when the concentration of HA was increased, suggesting that concentration had a great influence on the fluorescence characteristics of HAs. pH (2-12) also had significant effects on the fluorescence intensity, although it exerted no effect on the peak position of fluorescence of HA and FA. The results of FRI show that increasing concentration lead to more interactions among various structure components and that small molecular weight units tend to aggregate or be masked into more complicated and larger structures. The pH influence on the fluorescence intensity of HA seems mainly through molecular configuration, while the fluorescence intensity change with pH may be due to various substituents of FA.     

无锡惠山污水处理厂升级改造工程设计

介绍了无锡惠山污水处理厂升级改造工程。根据现状确定采用絮凝沉淀+转盘过滤+紫外消毒作为三级处理工艺,设计出水达GB18918-2002《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》一级A标准。根据厂区实际情况,设计采用一体化综合池,并着重介绍了各个处理单元设计参数和运行特点,为已建污水处理厂升级改造工程的一体化深度处理设计提供参考依据。     

矿井风险评价基本模型研究与探讨

提出风险的绝对值和相对值的概念,探讨了如何合成事故发生可能性和事故后果严重程度这两个指标,如何确定多个评价单元的评价对象的风险等级划分等问题。     

INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT WHO SHOULD LEAD,WHO SHOULD PAY?1

ABSTRACT: Improving water management to meet future global needs will certainly require technical advances, but the main challenge is to integrate the viewpoints of diverse societal interests into decisions about allocation of water resources. The integration cannot be done solely by the market because it requires a balancing among interests which do not respond well to market forces, nor by the state alone because of institutional problems. The concept of “integrated water resources management” has been developed to provide the framework for the required balancing of interests, and, like similar concepts in industries other than water, it has a dual purpose - to link stakeholders and apply best practices to management actions. To clarify the process of integrated water management, the paper focuses on two questions: who should lead integrated water resources management and who should pay for it? Several examples are given to illustrate a range of situations. The paper concludes with a call to improve paradigms of integrated water management, a proposition that water organizations should accept and budget for their external responsibilities as well as their direct missions, affirmation of the need for state and federal agencies to be involved with local interests, a call for better scientific and public information, and identification of the need for continued work to improve the process of integrated water management.     

环境模型与GIS的集成技术研究

首先介绍了环境模型发展现状,重点论述了环境模型与GIS集成的必要性和优势;环境模型与GIS集成的方式、集成系统的体系结构以及它们各自的优缺点,最后以福建省海岸带环境决策支持系统为例具体介绍了环境模型与GIS的集成,并对环境模型与GIS集成未来发展提出了几点看法。     

Factors influencing scaling up of agroforestry-based spatial land-use integration for soil fertility management in Arsamma Watershed,Southwestern Ethiopian Highlands

This study was set to examine factors influencing agroforestry upscaling, inter-plot natural fertilizer transfer and inter-plot income flow in Arsamma watershed. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to gather necessary information. Contingency table, chi-square, Phi and Cramer's V were used to analyze the data. Access to seedlings was the most important determinant of agroforestry upscaling; and farmers' production orientation, farm size and wealth status ranked, respectively, second, third and fourth. Inter-plot natural fertilizer transfer was primarily influenced by participation in agricultural extension. Wealth status and livestock size ranked, respectively, second and third in influencing inter-plot natural fertilizer transfer. The study indicated a geographic concept of spatial land-use integration for soil fertility management and key factors influencing agroforestry-based land-use integration. Agroforestry-centered diversified small-scale agricultural commercialization, tree-crop-livestock integration, agricultural extension services promotion and multi-purpose tree species supply are the way out to upscale agroforestry and agroforestry-based spatial land-use integration.     

基于资源环境统筹下的“多规合一”试点建设—以河南省获嘉县为例

"多规合一"是一项从国家顶层设计推进的市县规划体制改革,河南省获嘉县作为全国28个"多规合一"试点城市之一,是欠发达平原农业区小城市的典型代表。本文深入分析了获嘉县多规并存的冲突与差异、资源环境与城市发展不协调的现实,同时在考虑生态环境空间约束与资源承载的前提下,突出生态环境的基本制约与保障作用,提出从底线控制、规模约束、环境保障三方面体现市县多规融合,从规划体系、标准数据、空间布局、信息平台、管理机制五个方面实现多规融合,并给出了多规融合调整策略。     

基于系统动力学—投入产出分析整合方法的江苏省产业用水综合效用分析

产业用水结构的欠合理一定程度上制约着社会的发展,如何科学评价产业用水情况,取得在经济效益、水资源和环境资源约束下的协调发展已成为目前区域社会经济发展面临与亟待解答的科学问题。以江苏省为例,提出了系统动力学—投入产出分析整合方法,在构建反映产业结构、用水结构和排污结构的互动反馈的水资源综合利用系统动力学模型基础上,通过敏感性分析确定对系统影响较大的关键变量,运用投入产出分析技术,对江苏省各部门用水特性、排污特性和经济效益特性进行计算测度,由此构建了3种产业发展模拟方案。依据系统动力学模型输出结果,对2025年3种方案下的重点产业部门用水综合效用情况进行对比分析,进而优选出"节水治污型"方案,并最后提出保障方案实施的对策建议,为江苏省产业和用水结构调整提供决策依据。