In the mixed world of predictive biology—Contradiction or support

Statistical prediction is a tool and aim in ecology and wildlife management and conservation. A prediction may either be supported by or contradicted by observations of an unknown set of observations. A contradiction occurs if the prediction is not included within the range of the unknown observations, i.e. the prediction misses the cloud of observations completely. Mixed-effects models, frequently used for statistical assessment of clustered data, carry information needed for calculating the probability of such contradictions. Here we present a new versatile statistic, the probability of contradiction (P (Contra)), that describes how often we would anticipate a new cluster of observations contradicting our predictions. Some benefits of P (Contra) are: (1) easy to calculate and intuitive interpretation, (2) comparability between datasets, (3) inclusion of residual correlation, (4) summary of the multitude of information from mixed models into one statistics, and (5) applicable to local mixed-effect models.     

Sorption behavior of bensulfuron-methyl on andisols and ultisols volcanic ash-derived soils: Contribution of humic fractions and mineral-organic complexes

Bensulfuron-methyl sorption was studied in Andisol and Ultisol soils in view of their characteristic physical and chemical properties, presenting acidic pH and variable charge. Humic and fulvic acids (HA and FA) and humin (HUM) contributions were established. Sorption was studied by using two synthetic sorbents, an aluminum-silicate with iron oxide coverage and the same sorbent coated with humic acid. Freundlich model described Bensulfuron-methyl behavior in all sorbents (R² 0.969-0.998). K_f for soils (8.3-20.7 μg^1−1/n mL^1/n g⁻¹) were higher than those reported in the literature. Organic matter, halloysite or kaolinite, and specific surface area contributed to the global process. The highest K_f for HA, FA and HUM were 539.5, 82.9, and 98.7 μg^1−1/n mL^1/n g⁻¹. Model sorbents described the participation of variable charge materials with high adsorption capacity. The constant capacitance model was used to assess effects of Bensulfuron-methyl adsorption on the distribution of SOH, SOH₂⁺ and SO⁻ sites of sorbents.     

石墨炉升温程序的灰化技术

本文以测定铅为例,研究了石墨炉升温程序的灰化技术,包括基体干扰的消除,基体改进剂和Ｌ’ｖｏｖ平台的应用。     

用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)建立大气降水中酸雨pH值的预测模型

本文用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)建立了大气降水中pH值的预测模型。经三种不同方法检验。对我市1990—1993年大气降水中酸雨pH值进行了预测,结果令人满意。     

Release Characteristics of Nutrients from Polymer-coated Compound Controlled Release Fertilizers

Reliable information regarding release characteristics of nutrients from a polymer-coated controlled release fertilizer (CRF) is essential for beneficial agronomic and environmental results. Significant knowledge regarding nitrogen release from polymer-coated urea was gained while the information regarding the release of the different nutrients contained in polymer-coated compound N–P–K CRF remains limited. An experiment in which major factors affecting the differential release of nutrients from two coated compound CRF was performed in free water, water saturated sand and sand at field capacity. In general, nitrate release was the fastest, followed by ammonium and potassium whereas phosphate was significantly slower, with a rate of linear release in free water 45–70% slower than that of nitrate. Little differences were obtained for the lag periods of nitrate, ammonium and potassium release (2–10 days) under the experimental conditions, whereas for P they were one order of magnitude larger. The main factor slowing the release was assumed to be the lower solubility of ions with P being the least soluble. Release into free water was, expectedly, somewhat faster than that into saturated sand and significantly faster as compared to sand at field capacity and particularly so for P. Raising the temperature from 20 °C to 40 °C increased the rate of linear release of the different nutrients. The energy of activation, EA_rel, estimated for the linear release, of the different nutrients, was narrow ranging between 37 to 46 (KJ mol⁻¹) whereas the mean values obtained for the two CRF, differing by 50% in coating thickness, was non-significant. However, EA_rel was significantly different in different media. The complex effect of temperature on the lag period and nutrient interactions during release deserve further investigation.     

面向城市水环境治理的智慧水管家模式

近年来我国城市水环境治理取得了显著成效,已迈入水资源、水环境、水生态统筹治理的新阶段。传统水环境治理模式难以适应新阶段的问题和挑战,亟需探索一条可持续、系统性、高质量的水环境治理模式。智慧水管家模式是三峡集团在推进长江大保护过程中,系统构建形成的一套可复制推广的机制、理念、方法与技术支撑体系。从治理机制和理念、核心业务着力点以及科技支撑三个层面系统阐述了智慧水管家模式的核心内容,以期为我国城市水环境治理提供新思路。     

Environmental Communication as a Discipline of Crisis

This essay interprets Cox's keynote as a call for environmental communication to reorient itself as a form of ideological criticism and identifies the potential pitfalls of heeding that call. First, the author revisits key arguments surrounding the practice of ideological criticism in Communication Studies and articulates their relevance to discussions about the mission and purpose of environmental communication. Second, he suggests that an uncritical embrace of the rationale for a “crisis discipline” may perpetuate problematic assumptions about communication, both as a social practice and as a scholarly discipline. Third, he argues that such problems may be sidestepped by making environmental crisis itself a central concept and object of environmental communication inquiry, such that environmental communication does not merely respond to crisis but becomes a discipline of and about crisis. A focus on the dynamics of crisis, the author concludes, entails a persistent concern with judgment in its political, scholarly, and pedagogical contexts.     

火灾规律双重性模型及其对室内漏油火灾的分析

火灾的规律具有双重性:确定性和随机性。只有既研究其确定性又研究其随机性,并进而研究二者的综合才能完整地认识火灾的规律。本文提出火灾双重性规律的学术思想,通过构造室内漏油火灾的确定性和随机性模型,阐明运用火灾双重性规律表述火灾过程的具体方法。文中用微机实施的大量计算表明,该模型能方便地预言:发生室内漏油火灾时,室内设备是否会损坏以及可能被损坏的概率.     

Prevalence-adjusted optimisation of fuzzy models for species distribution

Most performance criteria which have been applied to train ecological models focus on the accuracy of the model predictions. However, these criteria depend on the prevalence of the training set and often do not take into account ecological issues such as the distinction between omission and commission errors. Moreover, a previous study indicated that model training based on different performance criteria results in different optimised models. Therefore, model developers should train models based on different performance criteria and select the most appropriate model depending on the modelling objective. This paper presents a new approach to train fuzzy models based on an adjustable performance criterion, called the adjusted average deviation (aAD). This criterion was applied to develop a species distribution model for spawning grayling in the Aare River near Thun, Switzerland. To analyse the strengths and weaknesses of this approach, it was compared to model training based on other performance criteria. The results suggest that model training based on accuracy-based performance criteria may produce unrealistic models at extreme prevalences of the training set, whereas the aAD allows for the identification of more accurate and more reliable models. Moreover, the adjustable parameter in this criterion enables modellers to situate the optimised models in the search space and thus provides an indication of the ecological model relevance. Consequently, it may support modellers and river managers in the decision making process by improving model reliability and insight into the modelling process. Due to the universality and the flexibility of the approach, it could be applied to any other ecosystem or species, and may therefore be valuable to ecological modelling and ecosystem management in general.