不同地区经济增长与环境污染关系的VAR模型分析——基于广州、佛山、肇庆经济圈的实证研究

利用向量自回归(VAR)计量技术对广州.佛山一肇庆(简称"广佛肇")经济圈各城市表征环境污染的指标(工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量和工业固废产生量)和表征经济增长的指标(人均GDP)的时序数据进行脉冲响应函数及预测方差分解分析,研究处于工业化后期的广州、佛山市及工业化前期的肇庆市经济发展与环境污染在时序维度上的关系及其...     

建筑火灾模拟模型设计

数值模拟是火灾科学研究中的一种重要方法。本文描述了建筑火灾模拟模型的建模思想和方法，该思想可用于研究建筑火灾过程规律、新的火灾安全方案或策略的工作效果和经济性分析，模拟模型可以给系统性能和火灾防治经济性以定量说明。并对在建模中存在的问题进行了探讨．     

基于水环境容量的开发区水污染控制对策研究——以镇江新区为例

随着镇江新区的快速城市化,环境压力指数化增长,环境保护面临着巨大的挑战。为了实现镇江新区的经济发展和环境保护双赢,以及区域的可持续性发展,本文深入分析城市化过程带来的一系列生态环境问题,系统评价快速城市化过程中水污染因子排放与长江流域水环境质量的关系,结合区域水环境特点,基于科学的水环境容量计算,修正区域用地总体规划和产业布局,为合理分配和长期有效地利用水环境容量资源和区域可持续发展提供理论支撑和对策。     

景观水系水质保障的规划方法研究——以奥林匹克森林公园主湖为例

景观水系水质保障的规划方法是环境规划学在景观水系的具体应用之一。与其他水环境相比,景现水系有其空间尺度小、环境容量低、水量不易平衡等特点。本研究针对景观水系的特点提出了景观水系水质保障规划的主要步骤,并阐述了各部分的关键问题。本研究以奥林匹克森林公园主湖为研究对象进行了案例分析,应用规划方法确定了规划目标,进行了水量平衡计算,识别了污染源,针对自来水补水、人工湿地净化再生水、水系循环等方法设计了一系列方案,并建立模型进行分析比较。研究结果表明,人工湿地净化再生水并进行每天10000m^3的湖水循环的方案可以保证水体水质稳定在地表水三类标准,为最优方案。     

Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.     

Assessing the effects of pseudo-absences on predictive distribution model performance

Modelling species distributions with presence data from atlases, museum collections and databases is challenging. In this paper, we compare seven procedures to generate pseudo-absence data, which in turn are used to generate GLM-logistic regressed models when reliable absence data are not available. We use pseudo-absences selected randomly or by means of presence-only methods (ENFA and MDE) to model the distribution of a threatened endemic Iberian moth species (Graellsia isabelae). The results show that the pseudo-absence selection method greatly influences the percentage of explained variability, the scores of the accuracy measures and, most importantly, the degree of constraint in the distribution estimated. As we extract pseudo-absences from environmental regions further from the optimum established by presence data, the models generated obtain better accuracy scores, and over-prediction increases. When variables other than environmental ones influence the distribution of the species (i.e., non-equilibrium state) and precise information on absences is non-existent, the random selection of pseudo-absences or their selection from environmental localities similar to those of species presence data generates the most constrained predictive distribution maps, because pseudo-absences can be located within environmentally suitable areas. This study shows that if we do not have reliable absence data, the method of pseudo-absence selection strongly conditions the obtained model, generating different model predictions in the gradient between potential and realized distributions.     

水利工程建设项目安全生产违规行为分析及监管模式优化

为优化水利工程建设项目安全监管模式、提高安全监管效能,选取山东省2020年重点水利工程质量安全监督报告进行统计分析,梳理出项目法人、代建单位、施工单位、监理单位、设计单位的安全生产违规行为共计1289个,以行为安全“2-4”模型为理论依据,对高频不安全行为产生的原因和规律进行研究。结果显示:水利工程建设项目五方参建单位的高频不安全行为中,安全管理体系程序文件不完善及执行过程不佳的组织不安全行为累计649频次,组织成员安全知识、意识、习惯不佳产生的个人不安全行为累计331频次。据此提出可将监管重点放在对参建单位管理体系的建立与运行上进行组织不安全行为控制,进而控制组织成员个人不安全行为,达到事故预防的目的。