悬浮物测定中滤纸预处理方法的改进

通过服物测定中滤纸预处理方法，减少了悬浮物测定中的误差，提高了测定结果的精确度。     

产业转移视角下京津冀石化产业碳排放因素分解与减排潜力分析

石化产业是我国经济的支柱性产业,但其大量的碳排放却给环境造成严重负担,因此提倡石化产业低碳发展能有效推动京津冀区域经济与环境绿色均衡发展.基于产业转移视角,分析2007-2016年京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量现状;运用对数平均迪式分解（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI）法分解并分析京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量影响因素在三地的作用效果,进而借助产业竞争力系数佐证碳排放量影响因素作用效果在区域间的关联性;最后通过合理调整京津冀区域石化产业能源结构,将未调整和调整后的能源结构类型分别设置为基准情境和低碳情境,利用SPSS拟合最优曲线来预测2017-2030年京津冀区域石化产业减排潜力.结果表明:①2007-2016年京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量增加386.79×104 t,碳排放强度由0.77 t/（104元）降至0.31 t/（104元）.②2007-2016年,能源强度因素使京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量减少13 663.77×104 t,其贡献率高达148.38%;人均GDP因素促使石化产业碳排放量增加12 327.10×104 t,贡献率达110.69%.③对于石化产业竞争力系数,北京市由0.03降至-0.02,为三地石化产业转出地;河北省由-0.14增至0.16,为转入地.④在低碳情境下,2020年、2030年京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量分别比基准情境减少502.84×104、528.95×104 t,碳排放强度分别降至0.19、0.17 t/（104元）,均达到发展目标的要求.研究显示,2007-2016年京津冀区域石化产业碳排放量逐年上升,承受巨大减排压力,该区域可以通过调整石化产业能源结构来挖掘碳减排潜力,推动石化产业绿色发展.      

Uncertainty analysis of emission estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model

Uncertainty is a critical issue for all models that attempt to quantify the necessary emission reductions that are required to meet environmental quality targets. This paper discusses a methodology specifically developed to analyse the uncertainties in the emission estimates with the regional air pollution information and simulation (RAINS) integrated assessment model, considering the uncertainties in the model parameters themselves. Overall, it was found that a typical range of uncertainties for modeled national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia in Europe lies between 10 and 30%. In general, the uncertainties are strongly dependent on the potential for error compensation. This compensation potential is larger (and uncertainties are smaller) if calculated emissions are composed of a larger number of equal-sized source categories, where the errors in input parameters are not correlated with each other. Thus, estimates of the national total emissions are generally more certain than estimates of sectoral emissions. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the uncertainty in input parameters showed that the actual uncertainties are critically influenced by the specific situation (pollutant, year, country). However, the emission factor is an important contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of historical emissions, while uncertainty in the activity data dominates the future estimates.     

一种战车主减速器温度预测方法研究

目的针对战车主减速器温度预测需求,建立时间序列ARIMA多步预测和BP神经网络预测模型,提出基于BP神经网络修正误差的ARIMA模型温度预测方法。方法结合BP神经网络的非线性能力与ARIMA模型预测能力,分析ARIMA在多步预测时误差产生原因,在神经网络对ARIMA多步误差进行预测基础上计算修正因子,把误差修正因子和BP网络结合,实现对多步预测误差的修正。结果ARIMA模型多步预测时,预测误差随预测步数的逐步增加不断增大,引入了误差修正因子进行修正。通过预测值与实际值进行对比,可有效提高预测准确度。结论 BP神经网络和误差修正因子结合应用可显著提高温度预测效果。     

测量不确定度在水质自动监测仪器中的应用

不确定度是反映某一测量方法,在一定置信概率条件下测量所产生的不确定度量。文章对水质自动监测仪器中氨氮全自动分析仪在测量过程中影响结果的各不确定度分量进行了分析,并计算出仪器示值误差的扩展不确定度。     

Dynamic floodplain vegetation model development for the Kootenai River, USA

The Kootenai River floodplain in Idaho, USA, is nearly disconnected from its main channel due to levee construction and the operation of Libby Dam since 1972. The decreases in flood frequency and magnitude combined with the river modification have changed the physical processes and the dynamics of floodplain vegetation. This research describes the concept, methodologies and simulated results of the rule-based dynamic floodplain vegetation model "CASiMiR-vegetation" that is used to simulate the effect of hydrological alteration on vegetation dynamics. The vegetation dynamics are simulated based on existing theory but adapted to observed field data on the Kootenai River. The model simulates the changing vegetation patterns on an annual basis from an initial condition based on spatially distributed physical parameters such as shear stress, flood duration and height-over-base flow level. The model was calibrated and the robustness of the model was analyzed. The hydrodynamic (HD) models were used to simulate relevant physical processes representing historic, pre-dam, and post-dam conditions from different representative hydrographs. The general concept of the vegetation model is that a vegetation community will be recycled if the magnitude of a relevant physical parameter is greater than the threshold value for specific vegetation; otherwise, succession will take place toward maturation stage. The overall accuracy and agreement Kappa between simulated and field observed maps were low considering individual vegetation types in both calibration and validation areas. Overall accuracy (42% and 58%) and agreement between maps (0.18 and 0.27) increased notably when individual vegetation types were merged into vegetation phases in both calibration and validation areas, respectively. The area balance approach was used to analyze the proportion of area occupied by different vegetation phases in the simulated and observed map. The result showed the impact of the river modification and hydrological alteration on the floodplain vegetation. The spatially distributed vegetation model developed in this study is a step forward in modeling riparian vegetation succession and can be used for operational loss assessment, and river and floodplain restoration projects.     

中国工业烟尘排放状况研究

烟尘是工业最主要的污染气体排放之一,它不仅威胁人体健康,还严重破坏区域环境。为了研究分析2001—2009年中国工业烟尘排放的发展趋势及其影响因素,并有针对性地提出工业烟尘减排的建议与对策,文章首先根据中国工业的经济与环境数据,描述分析了2001—2009年工业烟尘排放的发展趋势,再利用对数平均迪氏指数法（LMDI）将工业烟尘排放的影响因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应和治理效应4个子因素。通过对比分析各子因素的影响程度和发展变化情况,得出规模效应是工业烟尘排放的重要来源,技术效应和治理效应是工业烟尘减排的主要动力,而结构效应是未来烟尘减排的重要方向等结论。文章根据各工业子行业的烟尘产生与排放量,建议将化工及金属行业,水热电气供应业作为目前工业烟尘减排中的重点行业,这两个行业的烟尘产生量与排放量之和均达到工业烟尘产生量与排放量的80%以上。通过对比各影响因素对各工业子行业的影响程度,指出各子行业烟尘减排的主要方向与存在的障碍。     

煤矿噪声对人的注意力影响实验研究

为了研究煤矿噪声对作业人员注意力的影响,采用舒尔特方格法对20名被试者进行5 d的测试,以反应时间和错误次数为评价标准,测试了5种不同分贝煤矿噪声下的注意力水平。运用SPSS,Excel等软件对实验所得的反应时间、出错次数和超时次数进行分析。结果表明:不同噪声等级刺激对矿工的注意力水平存在差异。噪声等级在35~85 db时,注意力水平变化不显著,当噪声等级超过85 db后,对注意力水平的影响趋于显著。煤矿安全规程规定井下作业场所的噪声不应超过85 db,如果超过此临界值,噪声会对矿工的注意力产生较大的负面影响,导致不安全行为的发生;不同噪声等级分别与矿工出错次数、超时次数成正相关关系。当噪声等级在35~85 db时,随噪声刺激的增大,矿工出错次数的增长率先增大后减小,而超时次数的增长率刚好相反。噪声等级超过85 db后,矿工出错次数、超时次数的增长率一致。     

Relationships of salt-marsh plant distributions to tidal levels in Connecticut,USA

A three-year study of Connecticut, USA, salt-marsh vegetation was undertaken to determine the relationship of its distribution on the marsh surface to tidal levels, particularly mean high water (MHW) as measured on each of three sites representing different tidal amplitudes. Elevations and species present were measured on 1-m² grids in 10x 70-m belt transects at each site. After the data were subjected to discriminant analysis and other standard statistical procedures, the results showed that 98.4% of all observations ofSpartina alterniflora Loisel. occurred at or below MHW. The data can aid in salt-marsh restoration by offering a reliable indicator of what species should be planted when restored elevations and on-site MHW are known.     

南京市空气质量预报效果评估及误差分析

基于2020年南京市空气质量实况数据及预报数据,评估了当年南京市空气质量预报效果,分析了预报偏差特征及其成因。结果表明,4个季节中,秋季的空气质量指数(AQI)预报准确率评分和综合评分最高,夏季的首要污染物准确率评分最高;4个季节均出现正预报偏差,其中夏、冬季偏差大于春、秋季;首要污染物误报率与季节相关,二氧化氮(NO_(2))和可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))的误报率较高的原因是NO_(2)和PM_(10)作为首要污染物主要出现在春、秋季,而这2个季节4种主要污染物的空气质量分指数(IAQI)值非常接近,增加了预报员经验修正的难度。典型预报偏差个例分析结果表明,模式预报对于污染物质量浓度量级的预报偏差以及预报员对气象条件和前体物质量浓度变化关注不足,是导致最终预报出现低估的主要原因。