Modeling soil and plant phosphorus within DSSAT

The crop models in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) have served worldwide as a research tool for improving predictions of relationships between soil and plant nitrogen (N) and crop yield. However, without a phosphorus (P) simulation option, the applicability of the DSSAT crop models in P-deficient environments is limited. In this study, a soil-plant P model integrated to DSSAT was described, and results showing the ability of the model to mimic wide differences in maize responses to P in Ghana are presented as preliminary attempts to testing the model on highly weathered soils. The model simulates P transformations between soil inorganic labile, active and stable pools and soil organic microbial and stable pools. Plant growth is limited by P between two concentration thresholds that are species-specific optimum and minimum concentrations of P defined at different stages of plant growth. Phosphorus stress factors are computed to reduce photosynthesis, dry matter accumulation and dry matter partitioning. Testing on two highly weathered soils from Ghana over a wide range of N and P fertilizer application rates indicated that the P model achieved good predictability skill at one site (Kpeve) with a final grain yield root mean squared error (RMSE) of 535 kg ha⁻¹and a final biomass RMSE of 507 kg ha⁻¹. At the other site (Wa), the RMSE was 474 kg ha⁻¹ for final grain yield and 1675 kg ha⁻¹ for final biomass. A local sensitivity analysis indicated that under P-limiting conditions and no P fertilizer application, crop biomass, grain yield, and P uptake could be increased by over 0.10% due to organic P mineralization resulting from a 1% increase in organic carbon. It was also shown that the modeling philosophy that makes P in a root-free zone unavailable to plants resulted in a better agreement of simulated crop biomass and grain yield with field measurements. Because the complex soil P chemistry makes the availability of P to plants extremely variable, testing under a wider range of agro-ecological conditions is needed to complement the initial evaluation presented here, and extend the use of the DSSAT-P model to other P-deficient environments.     

2种统计方法在一次实验室间比对中的应用比较

比较了稳健统计法和误差系数法在水中苯系物实验室间比对结果中的应用,分别采用两种方法对比对结果进行了分析,探讨了两种统计方法的差异和适用范围。结果显示,两种方法对此次比对结果的分析结论基本一致,在实际应用中应跟据实验室间比对的目的和样品特点选择合适的统计方法。     

Modelling Escherichia coli concentration in a wastewater reservoir using an operational parameter MRT%FE and first order kinetics

The operational parameter MRT%FE, representing the mean residence time of different ages fractions of effluent within a completely mixed reactor, was evaluated and integrated with first order kinetics. The parameter was used to model Escherichia coli concentrations in a municipal wastewater reservoir managed under different operating conditions (continuous and discontinuous). The study was conducted during 2004-2005 in a reservoir receiving effluents from the activated sludge treatment plant of Caltagirone (Eastern Sicily - Italy). The analytical approach is applied to the hydraulic state variables of the system (daily stored volumes, inlet and outlet flows), and the physical-chemical (pH, temperature, EC, TSS, BOD(5), COD) and bacteriological wastewater parameters (E. coli, FC, FS). In order to evaluate the reliability of the proposed approach, predicted E. coli concentrations within the reservoir were compared with measured ones by the correlation coefficient, F-test and Sperman's index. The study included the evaluation of die-off coefficient K(T) (d(-1)), light extinction coefficient K (m(-1)) and their relationships with climatic factors. Results of the study confirm that E. coli removal is related to the fractions of fresh effluent remaining each day within the reservoir with MRT%FE of about 5-8d, significantly lower than the nominal detention time (about 27d). The E. coli die-off coefficient (K(T)) was higher during system discontinuous operations and correlated with incident solar radiation and water temperature.     

广州市污染季节空气质量预报效果评估及误差分析

基于广州市2016年第四季度空气质量实测及预报数据,对广州市污染季节空气质量预报效果进行了评估,结果表明,2016年第四季度广州市空气质量级别预报准确率83.7%、AQI范围预报准确率67.4%、首要污染物预报准确率67.2%、综合考核评分87.4分、相关系数0.78,预报效果总体良好,预报准确率在优良级别时相对较高,而在轻度污染以上级别时相对较低。预报误差分析表明,气象预报精细化程度不足、模式预报不确定性等客观因素,预报员缺乏对污染过程物理化学机制的深入理解等主观因素共同导致了预报的误差。     

“精密度偏性分析”是环境监测质量保证的重要手段

“精密度偏性分析”是环境监测质量保证的重要手段。通过它可以了解其方法的误差和检出限是否达到要求,同时也了解实验室和操作人员对该方法的适应性。     

Method for identifying errors in chemical process development and design base on accidents knowledge

It has been claimed that the high accident rate in the chemical process industry is due to poor dissemination of accident knowledge that affects directly the level of learning from accidents. In response to this situation, this paper utilized past accident knowledge as a basis to develop a safety oriented design tool whereby the accident information were directly disseminated into plant design. The method was developed based on our previous accident analysis of design error in which the common design errors were ranked in accordance to their frequency and its origins during normal plant design project. Based on the design error ranking and its origin at a specific design phases, a method for design error detection is proposed. The method is expected to be able to identify the possible design error and its causes throughout chemical process development and design. The main objective is to trigger safe design thinking at the specific design phases so that appropriate action for risk reduction could be timely implemented. The Bhopal and BP Texas tragedies are used as case studies to test and verify the method. The proposed method can detect up to 74% of design errors.     

基于MTBF的光电感烟探测器可靠性研究

针对火灾探测报警系统重要组成模块—光电感烟探测器-报警控制器,根据其在实际使用过程中的不完全故障数据,改良了前人对该问题的传统研究方法,并提出了分段定时截尾可靠性参数模型。该模型主要考虑火灾探测报警系统控制器工作时序性和故障处理时间的影响,采用自主提出的原始故障数据筛选统计方法,分别求得光电感烟模块的首次使用寿命与平均故障间隔时间的参数估计。该方法能够减少火灾探测报警系统初始使用寿命过长而产生的平均故障间隔时间的估计偏差,对于火灾探测报警系统整体使用寿命的估计和维修管理有着重要意义。同时基于序贯思想的动态截尾也克服了定时截尾模型无法准确判断试验停止时间的不足,在保证参数较为精确的前提下最大限度地节省时间和资源。     

中原地区旱涝等级预测──利用游程理论和王邨重建的2232a降水距平资料

本文采用王重建的２２３２ａ降水长序列运用Ｍａｒｋｏｖ过程理论分析了中原各地区旱涝等级的概率特征；定义了净旱涝历时、净旱涝烈度、平均净旱涝烈度参量，并用之建立了中原中心区降水的丰枯段等级预测模式。为中原地区旱涝分析和预测提供了理论依据。     

人的失误本质及检测的研究

对人的失误本质、定义及特点作了系统的分析研究。针对人的失误产生条件、原因及类型，提出了检测失误与控制失误的技术     

福州市环境空气质量预报误差分析

介绍了福州市环境空气质量预报系统，分析了预报产生误差的原因，指出SO2、NOx预报误差相对较小，TSP预报误差相对较大，误差主要由局地污染源的不确定和特殊天气情况造成，具此提出了提高预报准确性的改进方法和措施。