Assessment of the Water Quality and Ecosystem Health of the Great Barrier Reef (Australia): Conceptual Models

Run-off containing increased concentrations of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides from land-based anthropogenic activities is a significant influence on water quality and the ecologic conditions of nearshore areas of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia. The potential and actual impacts of increased pollutant concentrations range from bioaccumulation of contaminants and decreased photosynthetic capacity to major shifts in community structure and health of mangrove, coral reef, and seagrass ecosystems. A detailed conceptual model underpins and illustrates the links between the main anthropogenic pressures or threats (dry-land cattle grazing and intensive sugar cane cropping) and the production of key contaminants or stressors of Great Barrier Reef water quality. The conceptual model also includes longer-term threats to Great Barrier Reef water quality and ecosystem health, such as global climate change, that will potentially confound direct model interrelationships. The model recognises that system-specific attributes, such as monsoonal wind direction, rainfall intensity, and flood plume residence times, will act as system filters to modify the effects of any water-quality system stressor. The model also summarises key ecosystem responses in ecosystem health that can be monitored through indicators at catchment, riverine, and marine scales. Selected indicators include riverine and marine water quality, inshore coral reef and seagrass status, and biota pollutant burdens. These indicators have been adopted as components of a long-term monitoring program to enable assessment of the effectiveness of change in catchment-management practices in improving Great Barrier Reef (and adjacent catchment) water quality under the Queensland and Australian Governments’ Reef Water Quality Protection Plan.     

时变参数模型用于滑坡位移量预测的研究

滑坡的位移量发展受地质条件、气候环境以及人类活动等多种因素的影响,变化复杂,通常难以用固定参数的数学模型准确表达。时变参数模型的模型参数随时间变化,能够描述更为复杂的函数关系。将时变参数模型应用于滑坡位移量预测,通过对比发现,时变参数模型有望提高滑坡位移量的预测精度。     

Modelling and analysis of recruitment distributions

Recruitment data for 18 marine fish stocks are smoothed using 10 parametric families of probability distributions. Comparative fit of the 10 families is assessed by means of the maximized log-likelihood. Results indicate that the gamma distribution provides an overall good fit in the right-hand tail of the data, but that some adjustment to the gamma distribution is called for in the left-hand tail. Weight functions and weighted distributions are suggested as one means of achieving the needed adjustment.     

水蚀风蚀交错带小流域生态环境综合治理模式研究

水蚀风蚀交错带是黄土高原侵蚀最严重的地区和黄河下游河床粗泥沙的主要来源区，其生态环境脆弱、治理难度大，加之晋陕蒙能源基地的大规模开发，也带来了新的环境问题。鉴于治黄和煤田开发及生态环境整治的紧迫需要，以水蚀风蚀交错带六道沟小流域为试区，分析研究了该区水蚀风蚀时空分布规律及脆弱生态环境特征，提出以防治水蚀和风蚀为中心，以提高生态经济效益和持续发展为目标，以基本农田优化结构和高效利用及植被建设为重点，建立具有防蚀固沙兼高效生态经济功能的大农业复合生态系统综合治理模式，取得了良好的社会与经济效益。     

全耦合活性污泥模型(FCASM3) Ⅰ:建模机理及数学表征

在充分分析活性污泥系统中生物反应机理的基础上,建立了活性污泥系统生物去除营养物质的细观机理模型--全耦合活性污泥模型(Fully Coupled Activated Sludge Model No.3,简称FCASM3).FCASM3将系统中微生物划分为8类菌群,包含31种组分、72个子过程;该模型的主要特点是将活性污泥系统中的微生物进一步细化,充分考虑了系统中微生物间的相互作用.FCASM3引入了硝化-反硝化过程中的中间产物亚硝酸盐.实现了对两步硝化-反硝化过程的模拟;FCASM3不仅包含聚糖菌的有关生物反应过程,而且还考虑了聚磷菌(非反硝化聚磷菌和反硝化聚磷菌)以及聚糖菌的厌氧维持过程,为直接体现温度对生物反应的影响,FCASM3将温度作为一个变量直接耦合到生物反应速率方程中.     

广州轨道交通三号线高速行驶条件下对安全限界的影响研究

给出了轨道交通车辆横向偏移量的计算方法 ,并应用列车 -线路动力耦合模型 ,分析了广州地铁三号线的安全限界变化问题。确定了当前按 80km/h行车速度设计的建筑限界能满足 13 0km/h行车速度的要求 ,限界尺寸不需改动可保证列车运行安全平稳     

A pipeline of tweets: environmental movements’ use of Twitter in response to the Keystone XL pipeline

Social movements often amalgamate otherwise diffuse public political interests. In recent years, social media use has allowed both groups and individuals to engage with political issues both online and offline. How do organizations use Twitter to mobilize networked publics? To what extent do groups promote both ‘connective action’ online and traditional activism offline? How do their strategies differ according to whether they seek to promote or combat the status quo? And how do they balance encouraging and reinforcing individualized expression through group messaging? The ways pro-Keystone XL pipeline and anti-Keystone XL groups differed in their Keystone-related action on Twitter from January 2010 until October 2014 are analyzed. Boolean searching and Natural Language processing are used to analyze more than three million tweets. The results demonstrate that the frames within Twitter conversations have significant implications for how communities understand, develop, and mobilize around environmental issues.     

定费用时尿素热解脱硝系统的可靠性研究

针对费用最小化理论在可靠性分配中的局限性,建立更切合实际的固定费用下可靠度极大化思想。将该思想运用到尿素热解脱硝系统中,针对系统结构功能特征及运行特点,深入分析各系统间逻辑功能关系,提出了完整的尿素热解脱硝系统可靠性分配模型。并引入可靠性成本预估函数,以固定费用为约束,建立数学模型,实现了系统可靠性指标的最优化分配。最后以脱硝系统为例,获得具有实际意义的数值解,证明了该方法的可用性及正确性。     

森林合理年伐量分析确定方法研究

森林合理年伐分析确定是年森林采伐限额编制的关键技术之一,也是森林经理学的重要内容之一。本文从森林永续利用理论出发,以消长比度、成熟林采伐度、龄级结构改善度、流量均衡度、需要满足度５个指标建立了分析确定的综合评价模型,提出了森林合理年伐量分析确定的精确化方法,从而有效地保证了结果的科学性和准确性。     

Accounting for monogastric livestock as a driver in global land use and cover change assessments

Land systems are described based on various characteristics, including land cover composition and agricultural production. However, it is uncertain to what extent livestock, particularly monogastric livestock, determines land systems. We included monogastrics in a land system classification, and statistically analyzed the land cover composition and agricultural production of otherwise similar land systems with and without monogastric livestock. The results indicate that land systems with monogastrics are statistically different from their counterparts in the classification without monogastrics in terms of grassland area and crop yields, but are less different in terms of tree area, crop area, and ruminant livestock production. We then used a land systems map that includes monogastrics in the classification and a similar map that does not include monogastrics to project future changes in a novel manner that integrates livestock as a determinant of land systems. The results show that including monogastrics in otherwise similar projections yields less cropland intensification and more cropland expansion in several world regions, including Northern Africa and the Middle East. Other regions, such as Europe and Australia, were characterized by less decrease or more increase in tree area in the application with monogastrics, mainly due to the occurrence of open forests with monogastrics. This study prompts a call for improved characterization of land systems for land use and cover change (LUCC) assessments in order to better represent LUCC driven by monogastric livestock.