中国东部春季一次强冷锋活动空气污染输送过程分析

利用CMAQ(4.7.1)和HYSPLIT后向轨迹模式,结合长岛和洪泽湖站点污染物观测数据,对2011年3月31日—4月3日影响我国东北部地区的一次典型强冷锋天气空气污染过程进行模拟分析,验证表明模式能较好地模拟此次强冷锋过程. 由结果可知,此次强冷锋前后污染物浓度呈先升后降又上升的现象. 在冷锋移动过程中,锋前出现一条高浓度污染带,锋面将污染物抬升至800～500 hPa的高度,使污染物在对流层中层快速向西太平洋传输;冷锋对当地污染物的去除不仅有水平方向的推动作用,还会使污染物向高空输送. 锋面过后污染物浓度急剧降低,冷锋对长岛站点SO₂、O₃、NO_x、PM_2.5的清除率分别为90.87%、34.10%、50.56%、72.69%,对洪泽湖站点则分别为82.53%、50.45%、65.11%、36.80%. 锋面过去1~2 d后,高压控制天气形势下污染物再次开始积累、浓度回升. 冷锋前后污染物形成一个“积累—锋前抬升—高空平流输送—锋后大风清除—积累”的循环.      

A modeling system for drinking water sources and its application to Jiangdong Reservoir in Xiamen city

Drinking water sources are highly valued by authorities for safeguarding the life of a city. Models are widely applied as important and effective tools in the management of water sources. However, it is difficult to apply models in water source management because water managers are often not equipped with the professional knowledge and operational skills necessary for making use of the models. This paper introduces a drinking water source simulation and prediction system that consists of a watershed model, a hydrological model and a water quality model. This system provides methods and technical guidance for the conventional management of water sources and emergency water event response. In this study, the sub-models of the system were developed based on the data of the Jiangdong Reservoir in Xiamen, and the model validation was based on local monitoring data. The hydrological model and water quality model were integrated by computer programming, and the watershed model was indirectly integrated into the system through a network platform. Furthermore, three applications for Jiangdong Reservoir water protection utilizing the system were introduced in this paper, including a conventional simulation, an emergency simulation, and an emergency measures evaluation.     

Sovereign financial disaster risk management: The case of Mexico

In 2006, Mexico became the first transition country to transfer part of its public-sector natural catastrophe risk to the international reinsurance and capital markets. The Mexican case is of considerable interest to highly exposed transition and developing countries, many of which are considering similar transactions. Risk financing instruments can assure governments of sufficient post-disaster capital to provide emergency response, disaster relief to the affected population and repair public infrastructure. The costs of financial instruments, however, can greatly exceed expected losses, and for this reason it is important to closely examine their benefits and alternatives. This paper analyzes the Mexican case from the perspective of the risk cedent (the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit), which was informed by analyses provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The rationale for a government to insure its contingent liabilities is presented along with the fiscal, legal and institutional context of the Mexican transaction. Using publicly available data, the paper scrutinizes the choice the authorities faced between two different risk-transfer instruments: reinsurance and a catastrophe bond. Making use of IIASA's catastrophe simulation model (CATSIM), this financial risk management decision is analyzed within the context of a public investment decision.     

Use of an Airborne Lidar System to Model Plant Species Composition and Diversity of Mediterranean Oak Forests

Abstract: Airborne lidar is a remote‐sensing tool of increasing importance in ecological and conservation research due to its ability to characterize three‐dimensional vegetation structure. If different aspects of plant species diversity and composition can be related to vegetation structure, landscape‐level assessments of plant communities may be possible. We examined this possibility for Mediterranean oak forests in southern Portugal, which are rich in biological diversity but also threatened. We compared data from a discrete, first‐and‐last return lidar data set collected for 31 plots of cork oak (Quercus suber) and Algerian oak (Quercus canariensis) forest with field data to test whether lidar can be used to predict the vertical structure of vegetation, diversity of plant species, and community type. Lidar‐ and field‐measured structural data were significantly correlated (up to r= 0.85). Diversity of forest species was significantly associated with lidar‐measured vegetation height (R²= 0.50, p < 0.001). Clustering and ordination of the species data pointed to the presence of 2 main forest classes that could be discriminated with an accuracy of 89% on the basis of lidar data. Lidar can be applied widely for mapping of habitat and assessments of habitat condition (e.g., in support of the European Species and Habitats Directive [92/43/EEC]). However, particular attention needs to be paid to issues of survey design: density of lidar points and geospatial accuracy of ground‐truthing and its timing relative to acquisition of lidar data.     

气温变化对西南山区流域森林水文效应影响的模拟

为了揭示气温变化对西南山区流域森林水文效应的影响,用生物物理/动态植被模型SSiB4/TRIFFID与流域地形指数水文模型TOPMODEL的耦合模型SSiB4T/TRIFFID模拟了西南山区长江上游梭磨河流域森林水文效应对气温变化的响应,分析了气温变化对植被不同演替阶段的流域总径流和总蒸发以及冠层截流蒸发、植被蒸腾和土壤蒸发的影响。结果表明,（1）梭磨河流域森林（常绿针叶林）蒸腾与草和灌木差异小,森林蒸腾潜热比草和灌木仅高1~4 W.m-2,森林冠层截留蒸发高于草和灌木,但土壤蒸发明显低于草和灌木覆盖,森林覆盖流域总蒸发低于草和灌木覆盖甚至低于裸土蒸发,因此增加了流域总径流量,但森林增加径流的作用随土壤蒸发的减小而减小。（2）气温减小1℃将通过减小森林冠层截留蒸发和蒸腾而使森林增加流域总径流量的作用增加;相反,气温增加将增加森林冠层截留蒸发和蒸腾而使森林增加总径流量的作用减小。（3）当温度增加4℃,由于森林总蒸发较草和灌木明显增加,对于较高的土壤蒸发,森林增加总径流量的作用已不明显;对于较低的土壤蒸发,森林减小了流域总径流量。     

An approach to calculating allowable watershed pollutant loads

To improve the management of discharge pollutants loads in the reservoirs’ watershed, an approach of the allowable pollutants loads calculation and its allocation, based on the water environment model, was proposed. Establishment of the approach framework was described at first. Under the guidance of this framework, two major steps were as follows: modeling and scenario analysis were involved and should be applied to support the decision of discharge loads management; Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) model was selected as the kernel model in this framework. In modeling step, spatial discretization for establishing cell map in model, data preprocessing, parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis (which is considered as the significantly relevant factor of the margin of safety (MOS)), were conducted. As a result of the research, the model-based approach presented as a combination of estimation and precise calculation, which contributed to scenario analysis step. Some integrated modules, such as scenario simulation, result analysis and plan optimization were implemented as cycles in the scenario analysis. Finally, allowable pollutant loads under various conditions were calculated. The Chaihe Reservoir in Liaoning Province, China was used as a case study for an application of the approach described above. Results of the Chaihe reservoir water quality simulation, show good agreement with field data and demonstrated that the approach used in the present study provide an efficient and appropriate methodology for pollutant load allocation.     

基于Blender的矿山虚拟现实快速构建与实现

为了实现矿山三维实体模型和虚拟现实的快速搭建与实现,分析了当前数字化矿山建模可移植性差、扩展性不灵活、开发难度大的缺陷 ,提出了一种矿山三维模型及虚拟现实体系的自动构建方法:基于Blender开源软件提供的建模平台,利用Python语言编写矿山实体的表达方法 与生成算法;利用矿山基础信息,实现了对矿山井巷、矿体等三维实体模型的自动、快速构建,并以矿山井巷工程、矿体以及地表模型等实体 模型的构建为例进行了演示;利用Blender脚本实现对三维实体模型的快速渲染,初步建立了矿山虚拟现实环境与仿真系统,并利用驱动内核实 现虚拟情景的演示。结果表明,该方法具有开发快捷、要求低等特点,为数字化矿山建设提供了一种新的思路。     

Modeling estuarine-shelf exchanges in a deltaic estuary: Implications for coastal carbon budgets and hypoxia

The export of wetland-derived materials to the coastal ocean (i.e., the “Outwelling” hypothesis) has received considerable attention over the past several decades. While a number of studies have shown that estuaries export appreciable amounts of nutrients and carbon, few studies have attempted to estimate the importance of estuarine sources for the coastal carbon budgets in river-dominated coastal ecosystems. A novel tidal prism model was developed to examine estuarine-shelf exchanges in the Barataria estuary, a deltaic estuary located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This estuary has been the site of a massive wetland loss, and it has been hypothesized that carbon export from the eroding coastal wetlands supports the development of a large hypoxic zone in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. The model results show that the Barataria estuary receives nitrogen through the tidal passes and releases carbon to the coastal ocean. The mean calculated tidal water discharge of 6930 m³ s⁻¹ is equivalent to about 43% of the lower Mississippi River discharge. The annual total organic carbon (TOC) export is 109 million kg, or 57 gC m² yr⁻¹ when prorated to the total water area of the estuary. This carbon export is equivalent to a loss of 0.5 m of wetland soil horizon over an area of 8.4 km², and accounts for about 34% of the observed annual wetland loss in the estuary between 1978 and 2000. Compared to the lower Mississippi River, the Barataria estuary appears to be a very small source of TOC for the northern Gulf of Mexico (2.7% of riverine TOC), and is unlikely to have a significant influence on the development of the Gulf's hypoxia.     

Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.     

Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.