Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge,
as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts
in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps
for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal
city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated
models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement. 相似文献
The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors. 相似文献
We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model
was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this
formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community,
and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability
is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the
African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced
long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters
influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable
diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus,
given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas
should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived
elephant threats to vegetation. 相似文献
The practice of contaminant transport and remediation has shown significant progress in recent years. However, despite the
significant progress made, remediation efforts are often delayed by extremely long breakthrough curve tails that render efforts
to bring the level of contaminants below the regulatory standards inefficient. One hypothesis is that these long tails are
due to the reservoir-like slow diffusive processes in soil micropore zones. This study compares the effects of micropores
at macroscopic and microscopic levels and establishes a link between these approaches for validation and calibration purposes.
The link between macroscopic and microscopic levels is established through comparisons and testing of the two models while
incorporating appropriate scale and boundary effects. Despite the differences in conceptual approaches and simulation time,
the two approaches rendered meaningful results. The link helps forecast the effects of micropore zone transport processes
in the subsurface efficiently and thus allows development of numerical tools that could contribute towards more efficient
remediation design. 相似文献
In the crystalline rocks of the Canadian Shield, geochemical conditions are currently reducing at depths of 500-1000 m. However, during future glacial periods, altered hydrologic conditions could potentially result in enhanced recharge of glacial melt water containing a relatively high concentration of dissolved oxygen (O2). It is therefore of interest to investigate the physical and geochemical processes, including naturally-occurring redox reactions, that may control O2 ingress. In this study, the reactive transport code MIN3P is used in combination with 2k factorial analyses to identify the most important parameters controlling oxygen migration and attenuation in fractured crystalline rocks. Scenarios considered are based on simplified conceptual models that include a single vertical fracture, or a fracture zone, contained within a rock matrix that extends from the ground surface to a depth of 500 m. Consistent with field observations, Fe(II)-bearing minerals are present in the fractures (i.e. chlorite) and the rock matrix (biotite and small quantities of pyrite). For the parameter ranges investigated, results indicate that for the single fracture case, the most influential factors controlling dissolved O2 ingress are flow velocity in the fracture, fracture aperture, and the biotite reaction rate in the rock matrix. The most important parameters for the fracture zone simulations are flow velocity in the individual fractures, pO2 in the recharge water, biotite reaction rate, and to a lesser degree the abundance and reactivity of chlorite in the fracture zone, and the fracture zone width. These parameters should therefore receive increased consideration during site characterization, and in the formulation of site-specific models intended to predict O2 behavior in crystalline rocks. 相似文献
Interpersonal trust is associated with a range of adaptive outcomes, including knowledge sharing. However, to date, our knowledge of antecedents and consequences of employees feeling trusted by supervisors in organizations remains limited. On the basis of a multisource, multiwave field study among 956 employees from 5 Norwegian organizations, we examined the predictive roles of perceived mastery climate and employee felt trust for employees' knowledge sharing. Drawing on the achievement goal theory, we develop and test a model to demonstrate that when employees perceive a mastery climate, they are more likely to feel trusted by their supervisors at both the individual and group levels. Moreover, the relationship between employees' perceptions of a mastery climate and supervisor‐rated knowledge sharing is mediated by perceptions of being trusted by the supervisor. Theoretical contributions and practical implications of our findings are discussed. 相似文献
Objective: Evaluating the biofidelity of pedestrian finite element models (PFEM) using postmortem human subjects (PMHS) is a challenge because differences in anthropometry between PMHS and PFEM could limit a model's capability to accurately capture cadaveric responses. Geometrical personalization via morphing can modify the PFEM geometry to match the specific PMHS anthropometry, which could alleviate this issue. In this study, the Total Human Model for Safety (THUMS) PFEM (Ver 4.01) was compared to the cadaveric response in vehicle–pedestrian impacts using geometrically personalized models.
Methods: The AM50 THUMS PFEM was used as the baseline model, and 2 morphed PFEM were created to the anthropometric specifications of 2 obese PMHS used in a previous pedestrian impact study with a mid-size sedan. The same measurements as those obtained during the PMHS tests were calculated from the simulations (kinematics, accelerations, strains), and biofidelity metrics based on signals correlation (correlation and analysis, CORA) were established to compare the response of the models to the experiments. Injury outcomes were predicted deterministically (through strain-based threshold) and probabilistically (with injury risk functions) and compared with the injuries reported in the necropsy.
Results: The baseline model could not accurately capture all aspects of the PMHS kinematics, strain, and injury risks, whereas the morphed models reproduced biofidelic response in terms of trajectory (CORA score = 0.927 ± 0.092), velocities (0.975 ± 0.027), accelerations (0.862 ± 0.072), and strains (0.707 ± 0.143). The personalized THUMS models also generally predicted injuries consistent with those identified during posttest autopsy.
Conclusions: The study highlights the need to control for pedestrian anthropometry when validating pedestrian human body models against PMHS data. The information provided in the current study could be useful for improving model biofidelity for vehicle–pedestrian impact scenarios. 相似文献