Demographic Consequences of Terrestrial Habitat Loss for Pool‐Breeding Amphibians: Predicting Extinction Risks Associated with Inadequate Size of Buffer Zones

Abstract: Much of the biodiversity associated with isolated wetlands requires aquatic and terrestrial habitat to maintain viable populations. Current federal wetland regulations in the United States do not protect isolated wetlands or extend protection to surrounding terrestrial habitat. Consequently, some land managers, city planners, and policy makers at the state and local levels are making an effort to protect these wetland and neighboring upland habitats. Balancing human land‐use and habitat conservation is challenging, and well‐informed land‐use policy is hindered by a lack of knowledge of the specific risks of varying amounts of habitat loss. Using projections of wood frog (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) populations, we related the amount of high‐quality terrestrial habitat surrounding isolated wetlands to the decline and risk of extinction of local amphibian populations. These simulations showed that current state‐level wetland regulations protecting 30 m or less of surrounding terrestrial habitat are inadequate to support viable populations of pool‐breeding amphibians. We also found that species with different life‐history strategies responded differently to the loss and degradation of terrestrial habitat. The wood frog, with a short life span and high fecundity, was most sensitive to habitat loss and isolation, whereas the longer‐lived spotted salamander with lower fecundity was most sensitive to habitat degradation that lowered adult survival rates. Our model results demonstrate that a high probability of local amphibian population persistence requires sufficient terrestrial habitat, the maintenance of habitat quality, and connectivity among local populations. Our results emphasize the essential role of adequate terrestrial habitat to the maintenance of wetland biodiversity and ecosystem function and offer a means of quantifying the risks associated with terrestrial habitat loss and degradation.     

空气质量评价的参数化多元组合算子模型

传统的空气质量评价的参数化组合算子模型不具有可比性和普适性。在适当设定指标参照值cj0和指标规范变换式基础上,提出了一个对多项空气指标的规范值xj都适用的空气质量评价的参数化多元组合算子模型;采用混合蛙跳算法对模型中的参数进行优化,得到优化后对多项空气指标皆普遍适用的空气质量评价的参数化多元组合算子模型。该模型被应用于多个不同地区的不同组合指标的空气质量评价,其评价结果与用其它多种方法的评价结果相一致。结果表明:用指标规范值表示的参数化多元组合算子模型为空气质量评价提供了一种计算简便和普适通用的新方法。     

基于蛙跳算法优化的生态环境质量评价的韦伯-费希纳指数公式

为了建立简便、实用的生态环境质量评价模型,在构建生态环境评价指标体系的基础上,设定各指标的参照值和规范变换式,使规范变换后的不同指标同级标准的规范值差异不大。进而提出了一个对多项指标的规范值都适用的生态环境质量评价的韦伯-费希纳(W-F)指数公式。采用混合蛙跳算法对公式的参数进行优化,得出优化后对多项指标皆适用的生态环境质量评价的W-F指数公式。运用该公式对巢湖流域的生态环境质量进行评价,其结果与该流域生态环境质量实际情况基本相符,表明模型有一定的实用性。     

A regional survey of malformed frogs in Minnesota (USA) (Minnesota malformed frogs)

In late 1995, school children discovered malformedfrogs in a south central Minnesota pond. Press coverage resultedin numerous citizen reports of frog malformation across Minnesotain 1996. After some initial site investigation, 3 affected frogsites and 4 nearby reference sites were selected for moredetailed evaluation. Field biologists made 89 visits to studysites beginning spring 1997 through fall 1999 to examine thenumber and type of frog malformations. Over 5,100 Leopardfrogs (Rana pipiens) were captured and examined atall study sites. Water elevations and associated littoralinundation were recorded from 1997-2000. Results indicate thatmalformation occurred at all study sites above historicalbackground levels. Rana pipiens malformation across allsites over three seasons averaged 7.9% and ranged from 0 to 7% at reference sites and 4 to 23% at affected sites. At onenorthern Minnesota site, mink frog (Ranaseptentrionalis) malformation was 75% in 1998. A sitecharacteristic common to the most affected sites was an elasticzone of littoral inundation. Climate driven hydrologic variationlikely influenced water depth and associated breeding locations.     

SFLA-Verhulst组合模型预测矿井瓦斯涌出量

针对矿井瓦斯涌出量的时变性、波动性、非线性以及不确定性等特征,提出了SFLA-Verhulst组合预测模型,用于对具有非线性动态特征的瓦斯涌出量进行预测。该模型通过蛙跳算法对Verhulst模型的背景值参数寻优,并引入一次指数平滑法对原始数据进行优化处理,建立了基于混合蛙跳算法的SFLA-Verhulst组合预测模型;结果使模型在原始数据不准确或存在误差干扰的情况下仍能进行精度较高的预测。将新模型应用于某矿瓦斯涌出量预测,并对模型的预测结果进行检验分析,结果表明:该模型在结合蛙跳算法的全局寻优特点后预测精度较传统的GM(1,1)模型有明显的提高,适用性更强。     

Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

Developments in amphibian captive breeding and reintroduction programs

Captive breeding and reintroduction remain high profile but controversial conservation interventions. It is important to understand how such programs develop and respond to strategic conservation initiatives. We analyzed the contribution to conservation made by amphibian captive breeding and reintroduction since the launch of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Amphibian Conservation Action Plan (ACAP) in 2007. We assembled data on amphibian captive breeding and reintroduction from a variety of sources including the Amphibian Ark database and the IUCN Red List. We also carried out systematic searches of Web of Science, JSTOR, and Google Scholar for relevant literature. Relative to data collected from 1966 to 2006, the number of species involved in captive breeding and reintroduction projects increased by 57% in the 7 years since release of the ACAP. However, there have been relatively few new reintroductions over this period; most programs have focused on securing captive‐assurance populations (i.e., species taken into captivity as a precaution against extinctions in the wild) and conservation‐related research. There has been a shift to a broader representation of frogs, salamanders, and caecilians within programs and an increasing emphasis on threatened species. There has been a relative increase of species in programs from Central and South America and the Caribbean, where amphibian biodiversity is high. About half of the programs involve zoos and aquaria with a similar proportion represented in specialist facilities run by governmental or nongovernmental agencies. Despite successful reintroduction often being regarded as the ultimate milestone for such programs, the irreversibility of many current threats to amphibians may make this an impractical goal. Instead, research on captive assurance populations may be needed to develop imaginative solutions to enable amphibians to survive alongside current, emerging, and future threats.     

合金钢组合辙叉轨下刚度对其安全性影响评估

为研究轨下刚度对合金钢组合辙叉安全性能的影响规律,并选取合适的刚度值,用以指导生产设计,以12号单开道岔合金钢组合辙叉为研究对象,建立辙叉整体模型及叉心模型。基于有限单元法,分析不同轨下刚度对列车动荷载作用下辙叉的受力及变形的影响规律,且对叉心燕尾部位进行疲劳检算。结果表明,随轨下刚度增加,列车对钢轨的冲击荷载逐渐增大,钢轨所受内部拉应力及竖向变形逐渐减小。经比较,刚度值选择50 kN/mm为宜,此时,叉心燕尾处应力及疲劳检算结果显示辙叉可以满足安全使用要求。综合各安全性指标选取合适的合金钢组合辙叉轨下刚度,有助于保证辙叉自身强度和行车安全性,以改善其使用性能,延长使用寿命。     

Signal variation and call preferences for whine frequency in the túngara frog, Physalaemus pustulosus

Properties of sexual signals can differ in the amount of within-male variability. In several species of anurans, females exert stabilizing or weakly directional preferences on less variable call properties, and highly directional preferences on more variable ones. Preferences of female túngara frogs, Physalaemus pustulosus, were examined for two call characteristics: a less variable spectral character, dominant frequency of the whine, and a more variable temporal character, inter-call interval. Eight phonotaxis experiments using synthetic calls were conducted with gravid females. Stimuli presented for both characters were based on the mean and standard deviation (SD) of those characters in the study population. For each character, we used four intervals of variation (1, 2, 3, and 4 SD) between stimuli in four different experiments. As has been found in some other anuran species, preference was stronger for the more variable temporal character, increasing in proportion to the difference between stimuli. Preference for the less variable spectral character was not significant until the difference between stimuli was substantial. The strength of female preference, estimated as latency to choose, the number of speakers visited, and the number of females showing phonotaxis, increased in proportion to the increase in the difference between stimuli. All these measures of strength of preference were greater in response to the more variable temporal character compared to responses to the less variable spectral character. Received: 20 September 2000 / Accepted: 7 October 2000     

蛙跳算法优化的地下水质评价的参数化组合算子模型

传统的参数化多元组合算子模型在进行对数变换后,采用最小二乘法求解模型参数。在满足构建的优化目标函数条件下,直接用基于群集智能的混合蛙跳算法对参数化组合算子模型中的参数进行优化,避免了传统解法过程中需要进行的对数变换,因而使参数求解变得简化。改进后的参数化组合算子模型被应用于地下水水质评价,其评价结果与用其他多种方法的评价结果基本一致。从而表明:混合蛙跳算法优化得出的地下水水质评价参数化组合算子模型为地下水水质评价提供了一种简便和实用的新方法。