小型城市污水排放量预测模型研究——以楚雄市为例

针对小城市污水排放量历史数据较少,城市发展变化较大的特点,以楚雄市为例,提出了基于污水排放来源以及生成机理的预测方法。根据历史人口增长趋势以及城镇化率进行城区人口综合预测,运用定额法根据不同行业用水特点预测城市用水量,结合城市污水排放特点对楚雄市近期以及远期城市污水排放量进行科学合理的预测,并对预测结果进行了分析,可为城市发展规划提供决策参考。     

淮河流域用水效率研究

为研究淮河流域水资源利用效率,从淮河片水资源公报中提取相关指标数据,以淮河流域水资源二级分区为单元,基于数据包络分析法(DEA)和层次分析法(AHP)模型计算出淮河流域各市的用水效率.结果表明,淮河上游以漯河和平顶山市为优,淮河中游以郑州和徐州为优,淮河下游以扬州和盐城为优,沂沭泗以淄博和商丘为优.     

国家环境保护模范城市动态管理系统研究

按照创建国家环境保护模范城市的资料整编要求以及对环保模范城市持续改进的工作需要,本着方便查阅、体现过程、节约环保、突出特色的原则,研究构思了国家环境保护模范城市动态管理系统,以期为申请创建的城市提供参考。     

基于ELM网络的污水处理COD值预报模型研究

通过对沈阳某污水处理厂的叶轮气浮法污水工艺进行研究分析,得知其过程具有多变量、非线性和时变等特性,这些特性对于处理后水质的COD值准确检测非常重要。COD值的在线检测设备通常有一定滞后,影响了现场对水质的控制和提高,为此采用ELM网络来建立COD值的预报模型,并通过MATLAB软件进行了仿真研究,仿真结果表明该模型具有较好的预报效果。     

城市突发环境事件的三维矩阵管理模式研究

针对我国环境事件频繁发生和应急管理法制建设缺位、体制不健全之间的矛盾,结合矩阵管理与应急管理理念,创建了基于事件分级、事件生命周期和事件运行管理为三维的矩阵管理模式,并以此模式分析结果为基础,提出城市应急管理能力建设的阶段性建议。     

东亚大气可吸入颗粒物时空分布的数值模拟研究

利用嵌套网格空气质量模式(Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System,NAQPMS)模拟研究了2010年东亚地区可吸入颗粒物(PM10)的时空演变,并初步评估了其对人群健康的危险度.结果表明,NAQPMS模式能够合理地反映东亚地区PM10的时空分布,不同季节观测值和模拟值的总体相关系数达到0.65~0.85.2010年东亚PM10的地面浓度高值区(100μg·m-3)出现在我国华北、华中和内蒙古中西部等地区.其中,无机盐(硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐)对我国东部PM10的贡献最大(10~70μg·m-3,20%~50%);一次PM10次之(5~50μg·m-3,10%~30%),有机物(5~30μg·m-3,10%~20%)和黑炭(3~20μg·m-3,3%~5%)紧随其后.PM10可以引起我国东部人群急性总死亡率增加2%~5%,对我国居民的健康水平构成了一定威胁.     

Low cost measurements of nitrogen and sulphur dry deposition velocities at a semi-alpine site: gradient measurements and a comparison with deposition model estimates

The conditional time averaged gradient method was used to measure air-surface exchange of nitrogen and sulphur compounds at a semi-alpine site in Southern Norway. Dry deposition velocities were then obtained from the bi-weekly concentration gradient measurements. Annual deposition velocities were found to be 1.4, 11.8 and 4.0 mm s(-1) for NH3, HNO3 and SO2, respectively, if all data were included, and to be 10.8, 11.8 and 13.0 mm s(-1), respectively, if only positive values were included. Measured deposition velocities were compared to two sets of values estimated from a big-leaf dry deposition module applying to two different land types (short grass and forbs, and tundra), driven by measured micrometeorological parameters. The deposition module gives reasonable values for this site throughout the year, but does not reproduce the large variability as shown in the measured data. No apparent seasonal variations were found from either measurements or module estimates due to the very low productivity of the studied area.     

Beach topography mapping—a comparsion of techniques

A comparison of current techniques for measuring elevations in the beach and near-shore zones is presented. Techniques considered include traditional methods such as ground survey along transects and airborne stereophotogrammetry, and also newer methods based on remote sensing such as airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR). The approach taken was to identify a representative group of users of beach elevation data, elicit their requirements regarding these data, then assess how well the different methods met these requirements on both technical and financial grounds. Potential users of beach height measurements include those concerned with coastal defence, coastal environmental management economic exploitation of the intertidal zone, and coastal flood forecasting. Three test areas in the UK were identified covering a range of such users and also different beach types. A total of 17 basic user requirements were elicited. For each requirement each method was scored according to the degree to which it could meet the requirement. Total scores were calculated and each method ranked. This was undertaken for all the requirements together, for a subset relating to survey of narrow beaches, and for a subset relating to survey of wide beaches. Approximate costs were also established for the top six methods. Airborne stereophotogrammetry proved to be the best method technically, but was also the most expensive. Ground survey provides very good technical performance on narrower beaches at moderate cost. Airborne LiDAR can achieve good technical performance on both narrow and wide beaches at lower cost than ground survey. The satellite-based waterline method was also inexpensive and gave good results on wide beaches. An overall conclusion is that, while the traditional methods of ground survey and airborne stereophotogrammetry remain the best for engineering-related surveys requiring high levels of accuracy, airborne LiDAR in particular looks set to have a significant impact on beach survey for applications for which a vertical accuracy of 20 cm is acceptable, provided that its technology evolves satisfactorily.     

Uncertainty in integrated coastal zone management

Uncertainty plays a major role in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A large part of this uncertainty is connected to our lack of knowledge of the integrated functioning of the coastal system and to the increasing need to act in a pro-active way. Increasingly, coastal managers are forced to take decisions based on information which is surrounded by uncertainties. Different types of uncertainty can be identified and the role of uncertainty in decision making, scientific uncertainty and model uncertainty in ICZM is discussed. The issue of spatial variability, which is believed to be extremely important in ICZM and represents a primary source of complexity and uncertainty, is also briefly introduced. Some principles for complex model building are described as an approach to handle, in a balanced way, the available data, information, knowledge and experience. The practical method of sensitivity analysis is then introduced as a method for a posterior evaluation of uncertainty in simulation models. We conclude by emphasising the need for the definition of an analysis plan in order to handle model uncertainty in a balanced way during the decision making process.     

环境约束下大都市城郊土地利用结构评价——基于信息熵和非期望产出模型分析

土地利用过程中会产生期望和非期望产出,针对以往土地利用结构评价中忽略环境产生的非期望产出而影响土地利用结构效率真实性问题,以大都市城郊的上海青浦区为例,宏观上,运用信息熵模型对该区2005~2014年土地利用结构有序性进行评价;微观上,运用非期望产出模型测算青浦区研究期间土地利用结构效率,为寻求区域土地利用结构效率损失的原因及改善途径提供参考。结果表明:(1)2005~2014年青浦区土地利用结构信息熵值时序上呈现"M"形变化趋势,空间上由中部向东西两翼递减;(2)2005~2014年青浦区土地利用结构效率变化趋势在时间序列上呈现"W"形变化趋势,空间上由中部的中心城区向东西两翼递减格局;(3)将环境的负产出纳入非期望产出模型进行土地利用结构效率评价,能更加准确的反映土地利用结构效率的真实性;(4)影响青浦区土地利用结构效率水平变化的主要因素为纯技术效率的变化,资源过度消耗和环境污染物排放过量是制约青浦区土地利用结构效率提升的主要原因。针对土地利用结构效率损失的原因及区域差异提出效率提升途径。研究结果可为青浦区土地利用结构优化和可持续发展提供科学借鉴。