Modeling ecosystem responses to prescribed fires in a phosphorus-enriched Everglades wetland: I. Phosphorus dynamics and cattail recovery

We have developed and applied a process-based model, the Wetland Ecosystem Model (WEM), to evaluate the effects of a prescribed fire on the phosphorus (P) dynamics and cattail (Typha domingensis) growth in a P-enriched area in the Florida Everglades. The WEM couples major ecosystem processes including carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and P biogeochemical cycles, plant growth, hydrology, and fire disturbance. The model is used to assess the effects of a prescribed fire on P dynamics and cattail growth through dynamic interaction among four modules: fire, water chemistry, soil, and vegetation. The simulation results are in agreement with observed data including cattail above- and belowground biomass and dead mass, P concentration in surface-water, pore-water, and soil, and soil and water temperature. Cattail aboveground biomass reached the unburned level one year after burn; belowground biomass recovered to unburned level one and half years after the fire, however, dead mass did not completely reach unburned level two years after fires. The fire increased water and soil temperatures in the short term, while indirectly increasing the sensitivity of water and soil temperature post-fire response to air temperature by altering the energy exchange between air and water through a canopy gap created by fire. The fire also altered the P dynamics in surface-water and pore-water. A post-fire P pulse that lasted for less than one month was observed in surface-water. A similar P pulse, but in a small magnitude and a longer duration, was also observed in the pore-water total phosphorus (TP), and then came back to normal level after approximately three months. No significant changes in soil TP was observed during the study period. Meanwhile, no significant changes in water nutrients were observed downstream of the study plot. This finding indicated that the P-enriched wetlands in Everglades act as a buffer in regulating the P concentration in surface-water. Our study showed that the distance of fire effects on a 300 m × 300 m plot was less than 300 m downstream. Sensitivity analysis identified that the air temperature and hydrological conditions are two important driving factors which may alter the cattail community dynamics in response to prescribed fires. Similar to the filed studies, this study provided evidences that fire played an important role in managing plant growth and P dynamics in the Florida Everglades.     

Uncertainty analyses for calibrating a soil carbon balance model to agricultural field trial data in Sweden and Kenya

How do additional data of the same and/or different type contribute to reducing model parameter and predictive uncertainties? Most modeling applications of soil organic carbon (SOC) time series in agricultural field trial datasets have been conducted without accounting for model parameter uncertainty. There have been recent advances with Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analyses in the field of hydrological modeling that are applicable, relevant and potentially valuable in modeling the dynamics of SOC. Here we employed a Monte Carlo method with threshold screening known as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) to calibrate the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM) to long-term field trail data from Ultuna, Sweden and Machang’a, Kenya. Calibration results are presented in terms of parameter distributions and credibility bands on time series simulations for a number of case studies. Using these methods, we demonstrate that widely uncertain model parameters, as well as strong covariance between inert pool size and rate constant parameters, exist when root mean square simulation errors were within uncertainties in input estimations and data observations. We show that even rough estimates of the inert pool (perhaps from chemical analysis) can be quite valuable to reduce uncertainties in model parameters. In fact, such estimates were more effective at reducing parameter and predictive uncertainty than an additional 16 years time series data at Ultuna. We also demonstrate an effective method to jointly, simultaneously and in principle more robustly calibrate model parameters to multiple datasets across different climatic regions within an uncertainty framework. These methods and approaches should have benefits for use with other SOC models and datasets as well.     

Integrated assessment of agricultural policies with dynamic land use change modelling

With about half of its territory being farmed, agriculture is the main land use in the European Union (EU). As over 10% of the total EU manufacturing output comes from the agri-food sector, it also is an economic factor of great importance. Moreover, EU policy in this sector has far-reaching consequences ranging from the EU's status as a global trade partner to landscape preservation and development. The LUMOCAP Policy Support System is targeted towards policy makers in the European Commission (EC) and its Member States (MS) and aims to provide support in the field of sustainable agricultural and rural development. To this end it incorporates an integrated model with socio-economic and bio-physical processes, operating at different spatial scales. For supporting integrated assessment, a large number of policy levers is included as inputs for these models and outputs are transformed into policy-relevant social, economic and environmental indicators. The whole system is framed in a flexible, modular and easy to use software package that is useable for process experts and policy-analysts alike.This paper describes the integrated model, the individual models and a first calibration of the system. It demonstrates the system's behaviour for typical scenario runs and concludes with a reflection on the current status of the system and some recommendations for further development.     

Does the choice of climate baseline matter in ecological niche modelling?

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have multiple applications in ecology, evolution and conservation planning. They relate the known locations of a species to characteristics of its environment (usually climate) over its geographical range. Most ENMs are trained using standard 30-year (1961-1990) or 50-year (1951-2000) baselines to represent current climate conditions. Species occurrence records used as input to the models, however, are frequently collected from time periods that differ from those from which the climate is derived. Since climate variability can be significant within and outside baselines, and the distributions of some plants and animals (e.g., annual plants, insects) can adjust to environmental conditions on much shorter time scales, this mismatch between collection records and climatic baselines may affect the utility and accuracy of model outputs. We investigated how the choice of baseline periods influenced modelling efforts, anticipating that climate baselines derived from the same temporal period as the species records would yield improved ENMs. Ten simulated species’ distributions were modelled using an ENM (Maxent) for (a) occurrences and climates within the same temporal period, based on eighteen 10-year baselines within the 20th century and (b) all available samples and climate baselines from 1951-2000 and 1961-1990. Each model was projected onto all the available 10-year climate scenarios and compared to the models trained on the corresponding scenario. We show that temporal mismatches of species occurrences and climate baselines can result in significantly poorer distribution models. Such temporal mismatch may be unavoidable for many studies, but we emphasize here the need to match the time range of samples and climate data whenever possible.     

A general approach to transform a lake model for one radionuclide (radiocesium) to another (radiostrontium) and critical model tests using data for four Ural lakes contaminated by the fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.     

Adaptation of RUSLE in the Eastern Part of the Mediterranean Region

Empirically based models are used worldwide to estimate soil erosion. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) is one such model that has been intensively tested and validated under conditions in the United States. RUSLE estimates average soil loss as a function of five main factors: rainfall erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), crop management (C), support practice (P), and topographic (LS) factors. This study investigated the application of RUSLE to Mediterranean conditions. The validation and calibration of RUSLE in the study area utilized field plots soil erosion measurements. The results found the RUSLE soil loss estimation to be three times the actual soil loss (7.8 and 2.6 Mg/ha, for RUSLE and actual measured soil loss, respectively). The difference between the RUSLE factors and the measured factors were responsible for the differences between the soil loss estimation by RUSLE and the measured soil loss. Specifically, the RUSLE K-factor showed three times the magnitude of the measured K-factor, the RUSLE C-factor underestimated the measured C-factor, and the RUSLE P-factor overestimated the measured P-factor by three times. Adjusting the RUSLE factors according to the measured ones increased the models predictability, whereas the adjusted-RUSLE soil loss estimation underestimated the measured soil loss by 14%. The adjustment of RUSLE, according to the prevailing conditions of the study area, increased the model efficiency three times (0.26 and 0.86 before and after adjustment of the mode,l respectively). For more accurate and reliable validation of the RUSLE under the Mediterranean conditions, it is advisable to conduct long-term soil loss experimentation and measurements.     

交通荷载作用下饱和软基的模型试验及变形分析

采用自行研制的油压式循环加载系统室内模拟交通荷载的作用 ,对饱和软粘土地基的变形性状进行了大比尺的室内模型试验 ;考虑了饱和软基的固结状态、循环应力比的大小对竖向永久变形的影响 ;得出了饱和软粘土地基的临界循环应力比和竖向永久变形及孔隙水压力随加荷周数和固结状态的变化规律 ;模型试验及变形分析研究 ,对交通荷载下饱和软基的工后沉降计算具有重要参考价值。     

Cost-effective nutrient reductions to coupled heterogeneous marine water basins: An application to the Baltic Sea

In this paper, the role of nutrient transports between marine basins is investigated for cost-effective solutions to predetermined marine basin targets. The interdependent advective nutrient transports as well as retentions among the seven major marine basins of the Baltic Sea are described by input-output analysis. This is in contrast to prior economic studies of transboundary water pollution that include only direct transport between the basins. The analytical results show that the difference in impacts between transport specifications depends mainly on the openness of the basins, that is, their transports with other basins. The application on Baltic Sea shows significant differences in costs and policy design between the nutrient transport specifications. The reason is that the Sea is characterized by long water and nutrient residence times, so relatively large part of nutrients are transported among basins.     

Modeling the Production and Uses of Biological Resources from the Viewpoint of Energy Flow in a Rural Village in Sichuan,China

This study aimed at clarifying the impact of deforestation and afforestation on the quality of life in a village in Sichuan Province, China. We devised a conceptual model of bioresource production and use based on quantified energy flow. The basic structure of the model has three sectors: production, use, and externals. We developed comprehensive methodology to quantify the model. Bioresource use per person in 1997 was 3.7 GJ for food, 10.2 GJ for fodder, 0.2–0.4 GJ for building material, 12.8 GJ for fuel, and 1.8 GJ for fertilizer, totaling 28.6–28.8 GJ.We used four environmental indicators to evaluate bioresource production and use: a biological productivity indicator, a use-efficiency indicator, a supply–demand balance indicator, and a self-sufficiency indicator. Use of these indicators showed that supply-demand balance of fuel was dramatically improved from 30% to 85% by afforestation, but 99% of bioresource use still depends on domestic products. Thus, it is necessary to improve biological productivity and promote the efficient use of bioresources to achieve sustainable living in the area. Massive deforestation in the 1950s caused a direct shortage of building material and fuel wood. The shortage of wood led to a stagnation in the rebuilding of houses, and fuel wood was substituted with crop residues. Because crop residues had been used for fertilizer and fodder, their use as fuel caused a shortage of fertilizer and fodder. This was an indirect impact of deforestation on peoples quality of life.     

Pollen dispersal and intensity as criteria for the minimum viable population and species reserves

In small populations the lack of mating individuals may cause a reduction in reproductive potential which can restrict population expansion or cause further population declines. This is especially true in outcrossing monoecious and self-incompatible dioecious plant species. Principles of pollen dispersal suggest that many small to medium size population reserves of round shape will maximize the pollen interaction within and between island reserves. Diverse and low-density ecosystems require more total area in reserves than low-diversity and high-density ecosystems.