工业点源环境影响预测系统研发

采用Visual C#为开发工具,以Microsoft Office Access2003建立污染源数据库,开发了基于高斯模式的工业多点源污染扩散环境影响预测系统,实现了对工业点源下风向敏感点污染物浓度的快速、准确计算。通过加载Surfer9 Type Library COM组件,绘制污染物浓度分布云图,结合电子地图上,直观地显示了污染源对敏感区域的环境影响程度,为城市空气环境问题的管理和决策提供了科学的依据。     

基于SCGE的国土空间规划模拟框架CTSPM及其在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的应用

土地利用指标的区域配置与部门配置是我国国土空间规划体系的核心问题。如何在贯彻落实国家意志和中央战略的前提下,根据我国不同类型自然地理区划和经济社会区划的发展实际,特别是根据城镇化格局定型区、发展型城镇化地区和收缩型城镇化地区等三类不同地区的土地利用的实际,充分顾及各级地方政府的发展意愿,优化配置各类用地指标,是本轮国土空间规划不可或缺的首要的基本任务。基于此,建立一个基于空间可计算一般均衡模型（SCGE）的多尺度、多区域、多情景国土空间规划模拟分析框架（CTSPM）,提出该框架在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的实际应用场景,以支持多种国家发展情景和土地指标分配方案下国土空间格局模拟分析,及其经济社会影响和生态环境影响分析,为各地区、各部门之间的土地指标“博弈”提供“辩论”平台,为科学编制国土空间规划以及深度理解国土空间安全的跨区域影响提供分析性框架。     

An evaluation of environmental factors affecting species distributions

Many different models can be built to explain the distributions of species. Often there is no single model that is clearly better than the alternatives, and this leads to uncertainty over which environmental factors are limiting species’ distributions. We investigated the support for different environmental factors by determining the drop in model performance when selected predictors were excluded from the model building process. We used a paired t-test over 37 plant species so that an environmental factor was only deemed significant if it consistently improved the results for multiple species. Geology and winter minimum temperatures were found to be the environmental factors with the most support, with a significant drop in model performance when either of these factors was excluded. However, there was less support for summer maximum temperature, as other environmental factors could combine to produce similar model performance. Our method of evaluating environmental factors using multiple species will not be capable of detecting predictors that are only important for one or two species, but it is difficult to distinguish these from spurious correlations. The strength of the method is that it increases inference for factors that consistently affect the distributions of many species. We discourage the assessment of models against predefined benchmarks, such as an area under the curve (AUC) of more than 0.7, as many alternative models for the same species produce similar results. Therefore, the benchmarks do not provide any indication of how the performance of the selected model compares to alternative models, and they provide weak inference to accept any selected model.     

Estimation methods for nonlinear state-space models in ecology

The use of nonlinear state-space models for analyzing ecological systems is increasing. A wide range of estimation methods for such models are available to ecologists, however it is not always clear, which is the appropriate method to choose. To this end, three approaches to estimation in the theta logistic model for population dynamics were benchmarked by Wang (2007). Similarly, we examine and compare the estimation performance of three alternative methods using simulated data. The first approach is to partition the state-space into a finite number of states and formulate the problem as a hidden Markov model (HMM). The second method uses the mixed effects modeling and fast numerical integration framework of the AD Model Builder (ADMB) open-source software. The third alternative is to use the popular Bayesian framework of BUGS. The study showed that state and parameter estimation performance for all three methods was largely identical, however with BUGS providing overall wider credible intervals for parameters than HMM and ADMB confidence intervals.     

本地源尘污染成因的模式分析

对河门口片区污染源进行调查,采用经验证后表明适合攀枝花地区的山谷模式,对河门口片区的尘污染现状成因进行分析,研究了污染物种类、重点污染源类别、主要污染行业对片区内各控制点的影响,发现由于受山区地形影响,片区内各控制点污染状况受相邻污染源影响较大.     

Uncertainty analyses on the calculation of water environmental capacity by an innovative holistic method and its application to the Dongjiang River

The estimation and allocation of water environmental capacity （WEC） are essential to water quality management and social-economic interests. However, there is inevitable uncertainty in the capacity estimation due to model conceptualization, data collection and parameter calibration. An innovative holistic approach was developed, which took both independence and relevance between parameters into account to analyze the uncertainties in WEC calculation and estimate the margin of safety. The Doniang River was taken as the case to demonstrate the method, focusing on the chemical oxygen demand and NH-N that were the two major water quality problems in the river. The results showed that the proposed holistic approach is very promising and applicable compared to traditional methods of uncertainty analysis.     

基于DPSIR模型的环境友好型社会评价指标体系构建

为评价区域环境友好型社会建设程度,采用DPSIR概念模型,构建起包涵5大类因子指标的评价体系。此体系评价重点在于社会子系统发展对社会所造成的资源、环境、生态压力,居民生活环境状态的改变和在社会结构与居民生活的影响,以及所导致的各项政策响应。并以沈阳市浑南新区为例,选取了包括科技技术贡献率、生态用地比例、公众对生活环境满意度在内的44项指标,构建起针对浑南新区的评价指标体系,可对浑南新区的环境友好型社会建设以及管理决策起到辅助支撑作用。     

陕西省建设用地增长与碳排放变化的相关分析

通过分析2002~2011年间陕西省建设用地和碳排放的变化,基于LMDI模型分解方法,探讨了10年间建设用地变化对碳排放增长的影响。结果表明:研究时序内,陕西省建设用地和碳排放量均呈增长态势,建设用地年扩展率1.25%,碳排放年均增长8.84%,建设用地变化与碳排放量正向效应显著,建设用地对碳排放的贡献度为12.36%,对建设用地采取总量控制原则,能有效控制碳排放量,对陕西省实现"十二五"期间碳减排目标具有重大意义。     

Econometric analysis of the impacts of climate change on the livestock production in Qinghai Province

This study aims to investigate the effect of the impact mechanism of climate change on the livestock production at small watershed level and county level with the Multi-level Model(MLM)in Qinghai Province.The result indicated that the gross livestock output value was greatly influenced by the climatic factors of the small watershed level.Higher temperature promoted also by the increase of precipitation,relative humidity and sunshine duration was found to be beneficial to the development of livestock production,except in some areas where temperature rise restrained the development of local livestock production to some degree when exceeding a certain level;besides,the impact of the socioeconomic factors on the livestock output value is obvious at the county level.The gross economic output measured with GDP has some inhibitory effects on the reinvestment of livestock production,while population growth promotes development of livestock production to some degree.The results not only provide scientific basis for the management of livestock production in Qinghai Province,but also provide reference for formulating the policies and adaptation measures targeted at climate change to promote the sustainable development of livestock production in other regions.