Evaluation of health benefit using BenMAP-CE with an integrated scheme of model and monitor data during Guangzhou Asian Games

Guangzhou is the capital and largest city(land area:7287 km2)of Guangdong province in South China.The air quality in Guangzhou typically worsens in November due to unfavorable meteorological conditions for pollutant dispersion.During the Guangzhou Asian Games in November 2010,the Guangzhou government carried out a number of emission control measures that significantly improved the air quality.In this paper,we estimated the acute health outcome changes related to the air quality improvement during the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games using a next-generation,fully-integrated assessment system for air quality and health benefits.This advanced system generates air quality data by fusing model and monitoring data instead of using monitoring data alone,which provides more reliable results.The air quality estimates retain the spatial distribution of model results while calibrating the value with observations.The results show that the mean PM_2.5concentration in November 2010 decreased by 3.5μg/m~3 compared to that in 2009 due to the emission control measures.From the analysis,we estimate that the air quality improvement avoided 106 premature deaths,1869 cases of hospital admission,and 20,026 cases of outpatient visits.The overall cost benefit of the improved air quality is estimated to be 165 million CNY,with the avoided premature death contributing 90%of this figure.The research demonstrates that Ben MAP-CE is capable of assessing the health and cost benefits of air pollution control for sound policy making.     

Nex-Hys: minimum ignition temperature of hybrid mixtures

Although the minimum ignition temperature is an important safety characteristic and of practical relevance in industrial processes, actually only standard operation procedures are available for pure substances and single-phase values. Nevertheless, combinations of substances or mixtures are used in industrial processes and up to now it is not possible to provide a standardised minimum ignition temperature and in consequence to design a process safely with regard to the substances used.In order to get minimum ignition temperatures for frequently used hybrid mixtures, first, the minimum ignition temperatures and ignition frequencies were determined in the modified Godbert-Greenwald furnace for two single phase solids and a liquid substance. Second, minimum ignition temperatures and ignition frequencies were determined for several combinations as hybrid mixture of dust and liquid.In parallel to the determination of ignition temperatures a new camera and computer system to differentiate ignition from non-ignition is developed. First results are promising that such a system could be much less operator depended.By a high number of repetitions to classify regions of ignition the base is laid to decide about a new procedure for a hybrid standard and updating existing ones, too. This is one of the necessary aims to be reached in the Nex-Hys project.A noticeable decrease of minimum ignition temperatures below the MIT of the pure solids was observed for the one hybrid mixture tested, yet. Furthermore more widely dispersed area of ignition is shown. In accordance to previously findings, the results demonstrate a strong relationship between likelihood of explosion and amount of added solvent. In consequence the hybrid mixture is characterized by a lower minimum ignition temperature than the single dust.     

The effects of phosphorus-free inhibitors on the ignition of lycopodium dust

The minimum ignition temperature of dust suspension (MIT) and the hot surface ignition temperature of the dust layer (LIT) are essential safety parameters for the process industry. However, the knowledge of the ignition behavior when solid mixtures of flammable fuels and phosphorous-free inhibitors are considered is still scarce and further experimental and theoretical analyses are requested. In this work, the ignition temperature of phosphorous-free inhibitors (coal fly ash and calcium carbonate) mixed with lycopodium dust have been studied in terms of LIT analysis (hot plate thickness: 5 mm, 12.5 mm and 15 mm), and by the Godbert-Greenwald test for the MIT. Both coal fly ash and calcium carbonate have been tested at different concentrations and particle sizes.Results show that the effects of the inhibitor can be counter-productive when layer ignition temperature is considered even if the minimum ignition temperature of the dust suspension shows a positive effect from the safety point of view. This behavior has been analyzed in the terms of thermal conductivity and diffusivity of the mixture, by using Maxwell's equation for two-phase solid mixtures. Standard empirical correlations for the ignition temperature of solid mixtures have been also tested, showing their weakness in reproducing mixture behavior.     

水力帷幕防治海水入侵的数值模拟研究

为比较应用于防治海水入侵工程的水力帷幕效果,利用垂向二维非均质流体的对流-弥散模型,运用伽辽金有限元法求解,并用物理实验结果验证其有效性.将模型应用于模拟广西北海市海城区海水入侵过程及水力帷幕防治海水入侵效果,分别计算了超采地下水、抽水、注水和抽-注水情况下咸淡水界面随时间推移过程,并分析咸淡水界面推移与抽、注水流量及抽、注水孔位置之间关系,通过比较得出注水是北海市防治海水入侵较为理想的措施.     

基于加权信息量和迭代自组织聚类的地质灾害易发性评价

以三峡库区忠县-方斗山地区为研究对象,首先选取坡度、坡向、坡高、岩土体类型、坡体结构、构造、水的作用、人类工程活动等8个评价因子建立地质灾害易发性评价指标体系,并对因子状态进行分级;然后,采用层次分析法计算各指标因子的权重,应用加权信息量模型进行地质灾害易发性评价;再者,利用迭代自组织聚类模型对地质灾害易发性评价结果进...     

基于熵权的属性识别模型在土壤重金属污染评价中的应用

综合考虑了熵权赋值的客观性以及属性识别模型在解决有序分割问题上的优越性,本文将基于熵权的属性识别模型应用于土壤重金属污染评价中,并用此模型对鸟鲁木齐市主要蔬菜基地的土壤环境质量进行评价,结合实际,将其结果与模糊数学模型评价结果进行比较,表明此模型用于土壤重金属污染评价方法可行,且精确度高。     

自回归模型在井水埋深预测中的应用及改进

用时间序列分析方法建立井水埋深的预测模型时,首先采用差分的方法把季节性时间序列变成平稳时间序列,在此基础上,再用动态数据系统方法的传统F检验定阶法进行分析。由于样本的随机性可能过早地退出对模型的循环检验,从而不能找到合适的预测模型。笔者在用自回归模型建立井水预测模型的基础上,采用了一种改进的建模方法,提高了预测精度,并用实例进行了验证。     

三维准动态水质数学模拟方法

本文介绍了用于模拟工程废水排口附近污水带的三维水质数学模型。该模型通过累积流量坐标交换,获得在较复杂地形条件下模型的解析解,模型简便,没有数值耗散误差,能较详尽地表述污染带时、空连续分布过程,应用结果表明,效果良好,是一种可以解决水质预测问题的有效方法。      

铜对大麦(Hordeum vulgare)的急性毒性预测模型——生物配体模型

采用水堵的方法研究了Ca2 、Mg2 、K2 、Na2 和pH对大麦铜急性毒性的影响程度,并建立了一种用于预测铜对大麦急性毒性的生物配体模型(BLM).结果表明,高活度Mg2 (1.21 mmol·L-1和1.65 mmol·L-1)显著增加了大麦根伸长的半抑制浓度EC50(Cu2 )(以自由Cu2 活度表示),而Ca2 、K2 、Na2 对EC50(Cu2 )的影响没有达到显著水平.培养液中铜的形态分析和相关分析表明,pH值通过改变羟基铜(CuOH )的含量而影响铜的毒性.根据生物配体模型理论,估计了Cu2 、Mg2 、CuOH 和生物配体的络合平衡常数,分别为LogKCuBL=6.57,logKCuOHBL=7.03,logKHgBL=3.00.在此基础上通过计算得出,当50%的大麦根伸长被抑制时需络合66%的生物配体位点,利用上述参数建立的生物配体模型预测的EC50在实测值的2倍范围之内,远远低于仅考虑自由Cu2 毒性的12倍预测范围.结果说明,考虑了Mg2 竞争和CuOH 毒性建立的生物配体模型能够准确地预测铜对大麦的急性毒性.     

不同模式版本对长三角区域大气污染物模拟结果对比评估

选取2015年1、4、7、10月(分别代表冬、春、夏、秋4季),应用CMAQv4.7.1和CMAQv5.1模式模拟长三角区域的空气质量,对比了NO2、SO2、O3、PM2.54个常规污染物的模拟结果,表明CMAQv5.1对NO2、SO2和PM2.5的模拟效果优于CMAQv4.7.1,而CMAQv4.7.1的O3模拟效果优于CMAQv5.1;CMAQv5.1的NO2模拟值更接近地面观测值,比起不同版本的化学机制对NO2模拟效果的影响,NO2的模拟偏差受排放高估的影响更大;2个版本SO2的模拟值差距较小,且都与地面观测值之间差异较小;CMAQv5.1 PM2.5的模拟值比CMAQv4.7.1更接近观测值,气溶胶模块机制的更新(例如新增细分的PM2.5模式物种和部分二次有机气溶胶生成机制的改进等)对PM2.5模拟效果的改善显著;CMAQv5.1的O3模拟值比CMAQv4.7.1高,CMAQv5.1的O3模拟值在O3观测值的高值时段更接近观测值,而CMAQv4.7.1的O3模拟值在低值时段更接近观测值,CMAQv5.1在日最大8小时平均(MDA8)O3观测浓度超标日的O3模拟效果相比CMAQv4.7.1有一定程度的改善,但在非超标日模拟效果变差,CMAQv5.1的O3模拟效果总体相比CMAQv4.7.1并未得到有效提升。提出,未来针对低值时段和低值区域的O3模拟机制的改进将进一步提升O3模拟效果。