Spatial-temporal analysis of wetland landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta

The influence of anthropogenic activities,especially artificial dykes,on the coastal wetland landscape is now considered as a serious problem to the coastal ecosystem.It is important and necessary to analyze changes of coastal landscape pattern under the influence of artificial dykes for the protection and management of coastal wetland.Our study aimed to reveal the quantitative characteristics of the coastal wetland landscape and its spatial-temporal dynamics under the influence of artificial dykes in the Yellow River delta(YRD).It was analyzed by the methods of the statistical analysis of landscape structure,five selected landscape indices and the changes of spatial centroids of three typical wetland types,including reed marshes,tidal fiats and aquaculture-salt fields.The results showed that:(1)Reduction of wetland area,especially the degradation of natural wetlands,had been the principal problem since the dykes were constructed in the YRD.The dykes created conditions for the development of artificial wetlands.However,the new born artificial wetlands were still less than the vanished natural wetlands.(2)Compared with the open area,the building of artificial dykes significantly speeded up the changes of landscape patterns and the aggravation of the landscape fragmentation in the closed area.(3)The changes of area-weighted centroids of three typical wetland landscapes were greatly affected by dykes,and the movement of the centroid of the aquaculture-salt field was very sensitive to the dykes constructed in the corresponding period.     

Local Area Quotas for Industrial Emissions along Reaches of the Pearl River in Guangdong

Abstract

There is an obvious departure from the regional equilibrium of developments between the upper and lower reaches of the Pearl River in Guangdong, which resulted in “the effects of contra-geography-grads development”. It is mainly because the upriver mountainous areas have been deeply stuck in industrialization delay and marginalization plights, so that nearly 40 million local people have conceived a dream to get rid of “the vicious circle of poverty” by speeding up industrial development. But the problem is that such industrialization efforts on a large scale in mountainous areas are encountering the bottleneck of environmental capacity that strictly limits industrial emissions along the upper reaches of any water system. As a solution, an institutional arrangement called “the Local Area Quotas for Industrial Emis-sions along the Pearl River” is put forward supposed to give corresponding compensation to the rights of industrial development yielded by some areas with lower environmental capacity through the distribution and trading of IDQs.     

基于土壤流失的农业面源TN和TP排海系数估算

以黄河三角洲为典型研究区,通过分析区域地表污染物流失风险与入海通量的关系,构建了海岸带农业总氮（TN）和总磷（TP）面源污染排海估算模型.在此基础上,计算了包含水田、水浇地和旱地等耕地类的TN和TP面源污染排海系数,验证表明输出系数估算结果较好.研究区耕地的TN和TP排海系数分别为18.33 kg·（hm²·a）^-1和1.02 kg·（hm²·a）^-1,在夏季面源污染负荷较高.子流域尺度较大的耕地类农业面源污染负荷主要位于支脉河、广利河和小岛河管控区域.TN和TP总负荷较大的行政区主要位于北部黄河口镇和永安镇;较大的单位面积负荷在西南部.因此,需要关注农业面源污染的时间效应,同时协调社会经济发展,从子流域和行政单元的角度制定综合性面源污染防控策略,陆海统筹治理海域污染.     

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS.     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Application of the target fish community model to an urban river system

Several models have been developed to assess the biological integrity of aquatic systems using fish community data. One of these, the target fish community (TFC) model, has been used primarily to assess the biological integrity of larger, mainstem rivers in southern New England with basins characterized by dispersed human activities. We tested the efficacy of the TFC approach to specify the fish community in the highly urbanized Charles River watershed in eastern Massachusetts. To create a TFC for the Charles River we assembled a list of fish species that historically inhabited the Charles River watershed, identified geomorphically and zoogeographically similar reference rivers regarded as being in high quality condition, amassed fish survey data for the reference rivers, and extracted from the collections the information needed to define a TFC. We used a similarity measurement method to assess the extent to which the study river community complies with the TFC and an inference approach to summarize the manner in which the existing fish community differed from target conditions. The five most abundant species in the TFC were common shiners (34%), fallfish (17%) redbreast sunfish (11%), white suckers (8%), and American eel (7%). Three of the five species predicted to be most abundant in the TFC were scarce or absent in the existing river community. Further, the river was dominated by macrohabitat generalists (99%) while the TFC was predicted to contain 19% fluvial specialist species, 43% fluvial dependent species, and 38% macrohabitat generalist species. In addition, while the target community was dominated by fish intolerant (37%) and moderately tolerant (39%) of water quality degradation, the existing community was dominated by tolerant individuals (59%) and lacked intolerant species expected in the TFC. Similarity scores for species, habitat use specialization, and water quality degradation tolerance categories were 28%, 35% and 66%, respectively. The clear pattern of deviations from target conditions when observing fish habitat requirements strongly suggests that physical habitat change should be a priority for river enhancement in the Charles River. Comparison of our target and existing fish communities to those from a comprehensive study of Northeastern fish assemblage responses to urban intensity gradients revealed very similar results. Likewise, comparison of our TFC community and affinity scores to those of other TFCs from similar regions also yielded similar results and encouraging findings. Based on the positive results of these comparisons, the utility of the findings from the inference approach, and the widespread adoption of the TFC in the Northeast US, it appears that the TFC approach can be used effectively to identify the composition of a healthy fish community and guide river enhancements in both highly urbanized and non-urbanized streams and rivers in the Northeast US.     

岷江上游流域水电梯级开发的生态环境需水研究

本文通过分析岷江上游水电梯级开发对生态环境的主要影响,确定维持流域生态平衡的最小生态环境需水量测算方法。经测算,岷江上游的生态环境需水量占流域多年平均流量的6%～33%,越靠近源头,生态环境需水量所占比例越大。建议提高岷江上游生态环境需水量所占比例,将生态环境需水占比超过20%的茂县以上河段设为禁止开发区域,取消禁止开发区域内原规划的6级电站。同时在已建电站坝下和各县域出境断面设置生态流量监控断面,确保流域开发的环境生态平衡。     

我国流域监管中府际关系协调模式研究

我国流域水资源管理实行流域管理与行政区域管理相结合的管理体制,但目前我国的流域监管体制中中央部委之间的主管与协管的矛盾、中央部委与地方政府之间的统管与分管的矛盾以及地方政府间区域利益的矛盾使得当前我国流域管理效率低下,水环境质量不容乐观。在我国目前的府际关系模式下,以上的府际关系矛盾短时间内难以消除,本文认为我国的流域监管体制改革中应着力构建以组织间网络为核心、以科层机制为保障、以市场机制为辅助的复合型协调模式,设立流域协调委员会,从而实现流域的一体化管理。     

两种水源的水质及其混凝效果对比

针对一年中长江原水和黄浦江原水的水质情况,进行了两种原水几种水质指标的对比分析,混凝沉淀后两种原水氨氮和CODMn的达标情况对比,以及不同水温对于两大原水浊度、氨氮和CODMn混凝效果的影响。结果表明,黄浦江原水的浊度、氨氮和CODMn一般比长江原水高,pH比长江原水低,经过混凝沉淀处理后长江原水氨氮和CODMn的达标率比黄浦江原水高,两种原水的浊度、氨氮和CODMn的去除率随水温的升高有增大的趋势,若两种原水进行混合,为保证其处理后水质达标,则黄浦江和长江原水的配比最好不能超过2∶8。     

淮河流域某地区地下水污染健康风险评价

为研究淮河流域下游某地区地下水中污染物对人体产生的潜在健康危害风险,对该地区的水质进行了监测分析,并采用美国环境保护署（U.S.EPA）推荐的健康风险评价模型对该地区地下水中污染物所引起的健康风险进行了评价.结果表明,所监测的污染物浓度都在生活饮用水卫生标准（GB 5749—2006）和地下水质量标准（GB/T 148...