完全均匀混合质量平衡水质模型在滇池中的应用

介绍了完全均匀混合假设下以质量平衡为基础的湖泊水质模型,运用滇池的实测数据对模型进行了参数率定、验证,给出了模型在滇池水质预测中的应用实测,最后讨论了模型的几个假设条件对滇池的适应性。实例研究表明,该模型可适用于滇池水质有机污染长期浓度预测。      

Trends of air pollution in the Fichtelgebirge Mountains, Bavaria

We analyzed 13 years of hourly measurements of SO₂, NO_x, and O₃, at forest ecosystem research sites in SE Germany. A quasi-continuous data record was obtained by combining data sets from two locations. Before interpreting trends in the combined data set, we analyzed if the change of location introduced a systematic bias. We employed autocorrelation functions, Hurst statistics, complexity analysis, and recurrence quantification and found that the partial data sets exhibited no indication of the presence of any bias. For SO₂, we also compared the data from the forest sites with data obtained in nearby cities and also found no indications for any systematic effects. Applying nonparametric trend statistics we found a significant decrease of the SO₂. Most of the observed decrease is due to the reductions of SO₂ emissions in eastern Germany, but reductions in western Germany and the Czech Republic also played important roles. For O₃, we observed a significant increase, the causes of which are unclear from our data alone. No trend was identified for NO_x.     

大气污染物排放调查监测研究进展

系统总结了当前大气污染物排放调查监测的主要方法及其在全球、区域、局地等不同尺度的典型应用,分析了地面监测、模型模拟与遥感反演3种方法受排放源多样、成分复杂、时空变异显著等因素影响,在尺度效应、成分解析等方面存在的问题。从优化监测方法、改进监测模式、融合监测技术等角度,提出了构建现代化大气污染物排放调查监测网络、开展污染物在不同排放阶段的变化解析研究及在不同圈层间的迁移全过程研究等建议。     

模式搜索算法在毒气泄漏中的源强反算

基于泄漏源下风向的浓度监测数据并结合大气扩散模式建立反算模型,以确定泄漏源的位置和强度。以扩散模式仿真的浓度数据与监测数据的匹配度作为目标函数,将反演问题转化为优化问题,利用模式搜索算法迭代优化。以高斯模型为例验证了算法的可行性,结果表明利用探测器提供的测量浓度值,模式搜索算法能够在较短时间内搜索到最优解,在计算复杂性或时间上较梯度型算法和智能优化算法有一定优势。该算法能够及时而准确地反算出泄漏源强度和位置,为事故的应急响应与救援提供依据。     

Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences

Models predicting species spatial distribution are increasingly applied to wildlife management issues, emphasising the need for reliable methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions. As many available datasets (e.g. museums, herbariums, atlas) do not provide reliable information about species absences, several presence-only based analyses have been developed. However, methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions are few and have never been validated. The aim of this paper is to compare existing and new presence-only evaluators to usual presence/absence measures.     

How does economic complexity influence environmental degradation? New insights from African countries

This paper seeks to investigate the effect of economic complexity on environmental degradation in 20 selected African countries over the period 1991–2014. The Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS), and Driscoll-Kraay estimators (DK) are used to capture the objectives of the study. The results suggest that economic complexity and economic growth enhance environmental degradation. Also, natural resources rents and globalization improve environmental quality. Furthermore, the findings reject the U-shaped relationship between economic complexity and environmental degradation. In addition, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test shows a bidirectional causal relation between economic complexity and environmental degradation. Taking into account the ecological deficit or ecological reserve status of country, it is shown that while the natural resource rents reduce environmental degradation in ecological reserve countries, they increase environmental degradation in ecological deficit countries. The results are robust when an alternative measure of economic complexity is used. Based on these findings, the paper suggests that the governments of African countries should take into account economic complexity when designing their environmental protection policies.     

东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)预测方法

GM(1,1)是开展时间序列环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对东北地区玉米热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,各模型的平均预测精度虽低于逐步回归统计模型,但也都达91%以上,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。     

地震人员伤亡快速评估模型研究

每年地震都会给社会造成巨大人员伤亡,如果震后能迅速预知地震人员伤亡数量,这对挽救生命损失是十分有意义的。统计了近10年来中国大陆数10次强震、中强震灾害损失,根据影响伤亡的主要因素,用线性回归分析法,建立地震人员伤亡快速评估模型,并对模型进行验证,使之可用于地震预警。     

基于SWAT模型的阿什河流域非点源污染控制措施

以阿什河流域为研究区,建立了SWAT模型,并通过情景模拟技术分别模拟了退耕还林.等高种植、化肥减量与植被过滤带等非点源污染控制措施及其综合效果.结果表明:通过坡耕地退耕还林,可减少1.03%~5.35%的非点源TN负荷与0.94%~8.09%的非点源TP负荷;通过等高耕作,可减少0.51%~2.77%的非点源TN负荷与0.49%~4.54%的非点源TP负荷;通过20%的化肥减量可减少0.65%~6.52%的非点源TN负荷与0.01%~2.95%的非点源TP负荷;20m的植被过滤带可减少42.62%~69.51%的非点源TN负荷与80.09%~86.27%的非点源TP负荷.通过综合管理措施,可减少34.90%~54.36%的TN负荷与35.32%~60.89%的TP负荷.为达到《地表水环境质量标准》(GB3838-2002)中Ⅳ类水体TN与TP的浓度标准,2006~2010年尚需削减45.87%~82.53%的点源TN负荷与35.58%~66.85%的点源TP负荷.     

Warm glow from green power: Evidence from Australian electricity consumers

Green electricity products are increasingly made available to consumers in many countries in order to address a number of environmental and social concerns. Most of the literature on this green electricity market focuses on consumers’ characteristics and product attributes that could affect participation. However, the contribution of this environmental consumerism to the overall environmental good does not depend on participation alone. The real impact relies on market participation for green consumers (the proportion of green consumers) combined with the level of green consumption intensity – the commitment levels, or proportion of consumption that is green. We design an online interface that closely mimics the real market decision environment for electricity consumers in Western Australia and use an error component model to analyze consumers’ choice of green electricity products and their commitment levels. We show that product attributes have limited impact on the choice of green products; however, there is still great potential for better participation by improving the design of green electricity programs. When green products are selected, most respondents select the minimum commitment possible, and this is insensitive to the premium being charged on green power, suggesting that we are largely observing a buy-in ‘warm glow’ for carbon mitigation.