西南地区近14a植被覆盖变化及其与气候因子的关系

基于1999~2012年NDVI数据,结合气温和降水资料,运用GIS和RS技术,分析了西南地区近14a植被覆盖的时空变化特征及与气温、降水的关系。结果表明:(1)该区植被生长良好,各植被类型NDVI均呈显著增加趋势。空间整体表现为改善状态,改善面积远大于退化面积,严重退化区仅占1.18%。退化区分布于横断山地北部、四川盆地东部以及云贵高原中部。(2)植被覆盖变化将以良性发展为主,但强持续性的退化区和弱持续性的改善区应值得关注;强持续性的退化区主要分布在横断山地中北部、云贵高原中西部、若尔盖高原中部、四川盆地与若尔盖高原相交区域;草原强持续性的退化面积最大,针阔混交林强持续性的改善面积最大。(3)NDVI与温度存在明显的正相关关系,而与降水及干旱指数变化的关系不太明显,温度是影响该区植被变化的主要自然因素。     

城市土地利用类型与PM2.5浓度相关性研究——以武汉市为例

随着我国工业化的不断发展,在我国的主要经济发展地区的雾霾天气不断爆发,使我国的大气环境日益恶化,严重影响了人们的日常生活和身体健康。PM2.5作为雾霾的重要组成成分,也日渐成为环境领域的研究热点问题。随着全球性变化研究领域逐渐加强了对土地利用与生态环境的相关研究,因此无论从法律和社会经济发展的角度,还是从生态资源保护与环境可持续发展的角度,土地利用与PM2.5的相关研究都显得相当重要。研究目的:分析武汉市各类用地类型与PM2.5浓度的相关性程度。研究方法:使用ENVI与ArcGIS对武汉市2013年MODIS气溶胶产品进行空间分析与插值处理,再应用SPSS将其与武汉市2013年10个观测点的PM2.5浓度数据作相关性分析,以证实MODIS气溶胶厚度与PM2.5浓度的相关性,并建立两者的线性回归方程,然后利用计算后的武汉市整体PM2.5浓度分布与各土地利用类型进行相关性研究。研究结果:武汉市PM2.5浓度有明显的空间分布特征,绿化面积比例与PM2.5浓度呈显著负相关,建设用地面积比例与PM2.5浓度呈显著正相关,未利用地面积比例虽然与PM2.5浓度呈正相关,但相关性较低,而耕地与水体对PM2.5浓度没有显著影响。研究结论:土地利用类型对武汉市PM2.5浓度的分布有显著的影响,其与搭载MODIS传感器的遥感卫星监测方式的结合能成为研究大范围特定区域PM2.5浓度空间格局的新方法,并且增加城市绿化面积,控制建设用地规模能有效减少PM2.5浓度。     

崇明岛中长期碳排放预测及其影响因素分析

为更好地推动崇明低碳生态岛的建设,在应用以自下而上的部门法为基础的区域范围温室气体排放评估核算方法,全面核算崇明岛能源消费及温室气体排放现状的基础上,应用LEAP模型,通过情景分析预测崇明岛中长期能源消费需求以及温室气体排放水平,并进一步应用对数平均指数法(LMDI)对影响崇明岛未来温室气体排放的主要因素进行了定量分析。研究表明:参考情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量从2010年的101万吨标煤增加到2050年的533万吨标煤,净碳足迹从2010年的238万吨CO2e增加到2050年的579万吨CO2e。崇明岛能源消费需求和碳排放增加的主要驱动因素是未来的经济发展、人口增长和生活水平的提高,但是通过一系列的优化,尤其是能源结构的变化和能耗强度的下降,减排情景下,崇明岛能源消费总量有可能在2039年左右达到峰值,并有望在2050年左右实现"零碳岛"的长期发展目标。结合定量分析的结论,进一步提出了实现崇明岛低碳发展中长期目标的可能性和重点发展领域。     

Land-use forecasting and hydrologic model integration for improved land-use decision support

This paper develops a methodology for integrating a land-use forecasting model with an event scale, rainfall-runoff model in support of improving land-use policy formulation at the watershed scale. The models selected for integration are loosely coupled, structured upon a common GIS platform that facilitates data exchange. The hydrologic model HEC-HMS is calibrated for a specific storm event that occurred within central Washington State. The land-use forecasting model, What If? is implemented to forecast future spatial distributions of low-density residential land-uses under low and high population growth estimates. Forecasted land-use distribution patterns for the years 2015, 2025, and 2050 are then used as land-use data input for the calibrated hydrologic model, keeping all other parameters constant. Impacts to the stream discharge hydrograph are predicted as the study area becomes increasingly developed as forecasted by What If?. The initial results of this integration process demonstrate the synergy that can be generated through the linkage of the selected models. The ability to quantifiably forecast the potential hydrologic implications of proposed land-use policies before their implementation offers land-use decision-makers a valuable tool for discerning which proposed land-use alternatives will be effective at minimizing storm water runoff.     

Conceptual Models as Hypotheses in Monitoring Urban Landscapes

Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions.     

黄河流域生态环境脆弱性评价、空间分析及预测

生态环境脆弱性是制约经济可持续、高质量发展的重要因素。以2005—2018年黄河流域73个城市为研究对象,构建了黄河流域生态环境脆弱性的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析计算了黄河流域生态环境脆弱指数,并依据自然断点法将评价结果分为极度脆弱、重度脆弱、中度脆弱、轻度脆弱、微度脆弱五类。进一步通过空间相关分析揭示了黄河流域生态环境脆弱性的时空演变特征,并利用CA-Markov模型对黄河流域2025年生态环境脆弱性进行了预测。结果表明：（1）黄河上、中、下游生态环境脆弱性分别表现“低—中—高”的分布特征,且生态环境脆弱性变化趋势存在区别：上游虽差异较大但波动相似,中游波动方向相反,下游在2016年之后整体呈下降趋势。（2）黄河流域生态环境脆弱性存在空间相关性,上游呈现低—低聚集,下游呈现高—高聚集,中游空间相关性不显著。（3）预测2025年黄河流域中游地区重度脆弱有所扩张,下游地区极度脆弱向中心区域明显收缩。黄河流域生态环境的治理与保护并非一朝一夕之事,也并非某一流域单独能够完成的,黄河上、中、下游要根据不同的自然条件制定与之相适宜、符合整体发展需要的治理与保护措施。     

可燃物化学性质对燃烧释放PM2.5元素成分的影响

通过自主设计的燃烧装置,对云南省6种典型乔木树种的不同器官(枝、叶、皮)室内模拟阴、明燃两种燃烧过程,收集燃烧排放颗粒物(PM_2.5)并测定K、Mg等8种元素排放因子,比较不同燃烧状态释放PM_2.5中元素含量的差异,同时分析各元素排放因子与可燃物自身元素含量之间的相关性.结果表明:可燃物中K、Mg和Ca元素含量较高,范围为(137.74~4670.70) mg/kg,微量元素Mn含量突出;阔叶可燃物元素含量普遍高于针叶,器官间元素含量差异显著;燃烧释放PM_2.5中K、Na元素排放因子较高,范围为(0.4269~4.9321)~(0.6311~3.0856) mg/kg,微量元素Zn较高、Cu最少,范围为(0.0409~0.3670)~(0.0029~0.0458) mg/kg,常量元素高于微量;树种间元素排放因子表现针叶高于阔叶,器官间较可燃物自身差异增大;燃烧状态对排放因子存在影响,常量元素普遍表现为明燃>阴燃,微量元素无明显规律;PM_2.5与可燃物各元素含量比值中,Na元素最高,其余元素占比普遍0~1%范围,微量元素含量比高于常量,针叶高于阔叶;可燃物的化学性质对其排放特性影响显著,可燃物与PM_2.5的元素间相关性较高,相关水平普遍达0.600以上,器官间不同元素相关水平表现为:常量元素普遍高于微量元素,针叶略高于阔叶,叶>皮>枝,明燃高于阴燃.     

Interactions between lead(II) ions and dissolved organic matter derived from organic fertilizers incubated in the field

This work was to study composition characteristics and the subsequent effect on the lead (Pb) binding properties of dissolved organic matter (DOM) derived from seaweed-based (SWOF) and chicken manure organic fertilizers (CMOF) during a one-year field incubation experiment using the excitation-emission matrix-parallel factor (EEM-PARAFAC) and two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy (2DCOS) analysis. Results showed that high aromatic and hydrophobic fluorescent substances were enriched in CMOF-derived DOM and SWOF-derived DOM and enhanced over time. And phenolic groups in the fulvic-like substances for SWOF-derived DOM and carboxyl groups in the humic-like substances for CMOF-derived DOM had the fastest responses over time, respectively. Moreover, both non-fluorescent polysaccharides and fluorescent humic-like substances or fulvic-like substances with aromatic (C=C) groups first participated in the binding process of Pb to SWOF-derived DOM on day 0 and 180 during the lead binding process. In contrast, humic-like substances associated with aromatic (C=C) and phenolic groups gave a faster response to Pb binding on day 360. Regarding CMOF-derived DOM, the fulvic-like substances associated with aromatic (C=C) and carboxylic groups displayed a faster response to Pb ions on day 0. Nonetheless, polysaccharides and humic-like associated with phenolic groups had a faster response on days 180 and 360. It is noteworthy that the polysaccharides, which participated in Pb binding to CMOF-derived DOM, posed a higher risk of Pb in the environment after 360 days. Therefore, these findings gave new insights into the long-term applications of commercial organic fertilizers for the amendment of soil.     

车用高分子材料不同地区户外曝晒试验相关性研究

目的将3种高分子材料以及3种车用外饰材料分别投放在中国海南琼海和美国佛罗里达州2种典型湿热环境中进行户外曝晒试验,研究气候相似的2种地区的试验相关性。方法通过测试相同时间间隔下不同材料在2处试验场曝晒过程中的黄变程度,表征材料的老化现象。采用斯皮尔曼等级相关系数的统计方法,研究材料在2个地区相同时间节点的试验结果的相关性,并利用时间同轴的作图方法比较2个地区严酷度的差异。结果琼海与佛罗里达州2个地区在各个时间节点的相关系数接近于1,且在材料黄变方面呈现一定比例关系。结论琼海和佛罗里达州2个地区的试验结果呈现出较好的相关性,且严酷度比值约为琼海︰佛罗里达=1︰1.19。     

攀枝花市城市基础设施与土地收益关联度分析

以攀枝花市为例,综合运用GIS空间分析技术和变异系数权重分析、灰色关联度等方法建立了城市基础设施与土地收益的关联度模型,定量分析城市基础设施与土地收益的关联关系,揭示两者间的关联规律和作用机理.结果表明：①城市基础与土地收益存在较大关联性;②城市基础设施与土地收益关联度在时间序列上具有明显的波动性且呈周期性变化;③城市基础设施与土地收益关联度在空间上呈分异特征.