汽车简易工况法与新车排放认证工况法的相关性研究

选取50辆在用轻型汽油车,对国家标准规定的瞬态工况法(IM195)、简易瞬态工况法(IG195)、稳态工况法(ASM)与新车排放认证工况法(NEDC)间污染物排放系数的相关性进行研究.结果表明:瞬态工况法与新车排放认证工况法的污染物排放系数相关性最好,CO,碳氢化合物(HC)和NO的排放系数的R〖WTBZ〗2分别为0.701 0,0.727 1和0.6609;简易瞬态工况法次之,其CO,HC和NO 排放系数与新车排放认证工况法的R2分别为0.513 8,0.484 6和0.624 5;而稳态工况法与新车排放认证工况法的相关性最差,5025工况法下的CO,HC和NO 排放系数与新车排放认证工况法的R〖WTBZ〗2分别为0.410 9,0.448 1和0.5449;2540工况法下R〖WTBZ〗2分别仅为0.364 4,0.339 5和0.457 8.引起不同方法间污染物排放系数相关性差异的主要原因包括车辆热状态、车辆试验循环工况、分析仪器的测量原理和底盘测功机的控制精度等.      

两个高结实率的同源四倍体水稻恢复系农艺性状及细胞遗传学比较研究

以高结实率的同源四倍体水稻恢复系T4002和T4063为材料进行农艺性状及细胞遗传学比较研究.结果表明,T4002和T4063具有大穗、大粒、叶色浓绿、根深杆壮、株型理想、抗倒、适应力强、分蘖较好、结实率高等农艺性状.T4002和T4063染色体组成均为2n=4x=48,花粉母细胞(PMC)具有较为理想的减数分裂行为,配对染色体的比率在99%以上;其平均染色体构型分别为0.05Ⅰ 19.96Ⅱ(9.89rod 10.07ring) 0.01Ⅲ 2.20Ⅳ和0.11 Ⅰ 19.17Ⅱ(8.90rod 10.37ring) 0.09Ⅲ 2.26Ⅳ 0.01 Ⅵ,平均交叉分别为37.470 0和37.042 6.T4002和T4063PMC减数分裂各个时期单价体和三价体的比例低,而中期Ⅰ(MI)PMC观察到较多二价体和四价体,其最大频率的染色体构型分别为12Ⅱ6Ⅳ和10Ⅱ7Ⅳ.MI单价体、三价体和多价体频率,后期Ⅰ(AI)、末期Ⅰ(TI)和末期Ⅱ(TII)异常染色体行为都与花粉育性和结实率呈负相关.AI染色体滞后细胞比率同TI异常细胞比率呈极显著正相关,表明AI染色体滞后是TI微核形成的主要原因.多价体数目与TII异常形成四分孢子的PMC比率显著相关,表明多价体不仅影响AI(相关系数0.72)和TI(相关系数0.79),且显著影响减数分裂Ⅱ染色体分配,从而影响TII正常四分小孢子形成.AI染色体滞后细胞比率同TI异常细胞比率呈极显著正相关,暗示影响AI染色体分离及TI微核形成的基因很可能是显性单基因.图1表5参28     

天水小陇山红豆杉(Taxus chinensis (Pilg.) Rehd)林土壤真菌多样性及其与生态因子的相关性

采用GPS系统采集了天水小陇山红豆杉林9块样地的土样,用稀释平板法对该区域真菌进行分离计数,进一步鉴定到属,并分析了真菌数量和类群与土壤养分、水分和pH等生态因子的相关性.结果表明,该区域土壤真菌数量和类群组成存在较大的空间变异,土壤真菌优势菌群的构成有相似性,青霉属、毛霉属为所有样地的优势菌群.真菌多样性分析表明,小陇山红豆杉物种多样性较丰富,不同样地多样性指数差异明显.土壤真菌总数、类群和多样性与土壤生态因子间的相关性分析表明,真菌总数与土壤pH呈显著负相关(R-0.796),与水分和有机质呈显著正相关;Shannon-Wiener指数与土壤有机质呈显著正相关;各属与土壤生态因子呈现不同的相关性.      

Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty

The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania and Kenya support some of the most ancient tropical rainforest on Earth. The forests are a global priority for biodiversity conservation and provide vital resources to the Tanzanian population. Here, we make a first attempt to predict the spatial distribution of 40 EAM tree species, using generalised additive models, plot data and environmental predictor maps at sub 1 km resolution. The results of three modelling experiments are presented, investigating predictions obtained by (1) two different procedures for the stepwise selection of predictors, (2) down-weighting absence data, and (3) incorporating an autocovariate term to describe fine-scale spatial aggregation. In response to recent concerns regarding the extrapolation of model predictions beyond the restricted environmental range of training data, we also demonstrate a novel graphical tool for quantifying envelope uncertainty in restricted range niche-based models (envelope uncertainty maps). We find that even for species with very few documented occurrences useful estimates of distribution can be achieved. Initiating selection with a null model is found to be useful for explanatory purposes, while beginning with a full predictor set can over-fit the data. We show that a simple multimodel average of these two best-model predictions yields a superior compromise between generality and precision (parsimony). Down-weighting absences shifts the balance of errors in favour of higher sensitivity, reducing the number of serious mistakes (i.e., falsely predicted absences); however, response functions are more complex, exacerbating uncertainty in larger models. Spatial autocovariates help describe fine-scale patterns of occurrence and significantly improve explained deviance, though if important environmental constraints are omitted then model stability and explanatory power can be compromised. We conclude that the best modelling practice is contingent both on the intentions of the analyst (explanation or prediction) and on the quality of distribution data; generalised additive models have potential to provide valuable information for conservation in the EAMs, but methods must be carefully considered, particularly if occurrence data are scarce. Full results and details of all species models are supplied in an online Appendix.     

A thermodynamic model of freshwater Antarctic lake ice

Antarctic lakes with simple plankton ecosystems are believed to be sensitive biological indicators of climate change. Models of the physical environment, in particular the ice layer, support understanding of how the ecosystems respond to meteorological variables. This paper describes how data from a previously reported automatic measuring probe and meteorological data from Davis station were used to develop a detailed thermodynamic model of the ice layer on Crooked Lake, one of the largest and deepest freshwater lakes in Antarctica. The general model structure is similar to a previously reported model of sea ice but with modifications specific to the Antarctic freshwater lake case informed by the data. The model inputs are atmospheric variables as well as water temperature, ice albedo and the radiation extinction coefficient for the ice. Heat and radiation fluxes at the ice–air and ice–water boundaries are calculated using equations chosen for their suitability for the Antarctic. In the case of shortwave radiation, equations were fitted to data from the automatic probe. Using the heat fluxes to establish boundary conditions, and incorporating the known thermodynamic properties of ice, the temperature profile within the ice and the resulting growth and melt of the ice can be calculated. The model uses a largely mechanistic approach, with most equations taken from established thermodynamic theories or empirical studies and only one adjustable parameter related to the sensible heat flux from the water, which is not easily calculated from the available data. It was found to accurately reproduce ice temperature and ice thickness data for the year 2003, with r² = 0.89, n = 2005. Finally, the model was simplified to run with air temperature as the only input variable and was shown to perform well—this suggests that freshwater lake ice is affected more by air temperature than any other variable, and is therefore a useful indicator of climate change in its own right.     

Calibration and uncertainty analysis of a simple model of silica-limited diatom growth in the Elbe River

A simple Lagrangian water quality model was designed to investigate the hypothesis of sporadic silica limitations of diatom growth in the lower Elbe River in Germany. For each fluid parcel a limited reservoir of silica was specified to be consumed by diatoms. The model's simplicity notwithstanding, a set of six selected model parameters could not be fully identified from existing observations at one station. After the introduction of prior knowledge of the ranges of meaningful parameter values, calibration of the over-parameterised model manifested itself primarily in the generation of posterior parameter covariances. Estimations of the covariance matrix based on (a) second order partial derivatives of a quadratic cost function at its optimum and (b) Monte Carlo simulations exploring the whole space of parameter values gave consistent results. Diagonalisation of the covariance matrix yielded two linear parameter combinations that were most effectively controlled by data from periods with and without lack of silica, respectively. The two parameter combinations were identified as the essential inputs that govern the successful simulation of intermittently decreasing chlorophyll a concentrations in summer. A satisfactory simulation of the pronounced chlorophyll a minimum in spring, by contrast, was found to be beyond the means of the simple model.     

桑叶表面氟化物吸附积累规律的统计研究

以各气象因素和大气氟化物浓度为生态因子,对大田桑园中各叶位桑叶的氟化物的吸附积累规律,进行了统计分析和研究,建立了各叶位桑叶的氟化物的吸附积累模型。     

我国现行大气环境影响评价预测模型的若干问题及其改进

我国现行大气环境影响预测评价模型存在以下几个问题:大气混合层高度求算偏低;稳定条件下大气扩散计算结果不合理;模型未考虑非扩散因素影响(干湿沉积、化学转化);非正常排放模型在小风、静风条件下计算结果偏大;熏烟模型计算的不可操作性等。本文针对这些问题提出相应的改进方法,并进行了实例计算。     

对金州沿海地区地下水中氯离子与硬度相关关系的研究

根据1991～2002年大连市金州沿海地区地下水中硬度与氯离子的检测结果,对硬度 氯离子浓度进行一元线性回归,回归方程为y=2.1975x-3.1072,经相关系数和回归线的显著性检验,此方程有99%的可信度。     

贵州省乡村旅游空间特征的主导因子及其空间响应——基于地理加权相关系数的分析

选取贵州省1976个乡村旅游点作为研究对象,采用核密度、地理探测器、地理加权相关系数探究了2017—2019年该省乡村旅游空间特征、主导因子及其空间响应。结果表明:(1)乡村旅游空间格局为"中部集聚、周边随机"和"双核心、多热点"。(2)高程、住宿接待能力、水文环境、地形坡高等是影响乡村旅游空间特征的主要因素。(3)除地形坡高与乡村旅游呈负相关外,其他主导因子均与乡村旅游呈正相关,高程的起伏促进了乡村旅游的发展。