2000～2010年贵州省植被净初级生产力时空变化研究

为了探明贵州省植被净初级生产力(NPP)在2000~2010年的变化状况,以2000~2010年植被NPP数据为基础,运用ArcG IS和SPSS进行综合分析。结果表明:近11年间,草地、城镇用地、阔叶林、针叶林和湿地等面积呈增加趋势,而灌木林和农田则持续减少,其中农田面积变化尤为明显;2000~2010年贵州省植被NPP变化较大,NPP变化范围为778~889 g/(m2·a),平均值为828.1 g/(m2·a),NPP缓慢上升趋势;全省NPP分布有明显地域性差异,铜仁和六盘水为显著增加(P0.05),其余地州市增加缓慢(P0.05)。黔东南年均NPP最高((927±111)g/(m 2·a)),毕节最低((725±107)g/(m2·a))。NPP变化趋势为东南向西北方向递减,而往西北方向NPP波动程度明显;阔叶林和灌木林缓慢下降,而针叶林和针阔混交林则上升。NPP表现为针阔混交林阔叶林针叶林灌木林。     

福建省水土流失地理国情监测研究与应用——以22个重点县为例

为掌握福建省境内个22重点县水土流失地理国情现状,利用高分辨率资源三号遥感卫星影像数据进行监测分析。以土壤侵蚀分类分级标准SL190-2007为依据,通过土地利用、植被覆盖度以及坡度等水土流失影响因子的信息提取,基于GIS软件平台上,建立符合福建省水土流失地理国情的遥感监测信息提取模型。经GPS进行野外调查、验证和修改,最终完成区域水土流失图斑的提取和建库工作,为科学规划与治理及其成效分析等提供科学依据。     

集中供热项目环境效益分析——以某市集中供热项目为例

介绍了某市新区供热现状,并对预测模型AERMOD的运行参数及数据来源进行了简要说明,根据区内供热现状及采取集中供热方式后新区冬季采暖集中供热锅炉烟气污染物排放源强的变化情况,采用AERMOD模型分别进行了预测。在此基础上,通过对比分析,得出了大型集中供热工程具有明显环境效益的结论。     

A GIS-based approach for the screening assessment of noise and vibration impacts from transit projects

Urban transportation projects are essential in increasing the efficiency of moving people and goods within a city, and between cities. Environmental impacts from such projects must be evaluated and mitigated, as applicable. Spatial modeling is a valuable tool for quantifying the potential level of environmental consequences within the context of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) study. This paper presents a GIS-based tool for the assessment of airborne-noise and ground-borne vibration from public transit systems, and its application to an actual project. The tool is based on the US Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) approach, and incorporates spatial information, satellite imaging, geostatistical modeling, and software programming. The tool is applied on a case study of initial environmental evaluation of a light rail transit project in an urban city in the Middle East, to evaluate alternative layouts. The tool readily allowed the alternative evaluation and the results were used as input to a multi-criteria analytic framework.     

Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

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Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

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- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

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- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

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- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

Development of a Dynamic Aquatic Model (DynA Model): Estimating Temporal Emissions of DDT to Lake Maggiore (N. Italy)

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.009 Background, Aims and Scope Most existing models used to describe the fate of chemicals in surface water and sediment generally consider a 'static scenario', in which a contaminant is discharged at a constant rate and environmental input parameters do not change during the simulation time. This approach is not suitable in environmental scenarios characterized by daily or periodic changes of several input parameters. The aim of this study is to estimate approximate emissions of DDT lo Lake Maggiore using a new surface water model, (DynA Model) that describes the fate of a chemical in a dynamic scenario. Methods The model is developed on the grounds of an existing and validated model (QWASI). A numerical solution was adopted to build the fully dynamic version of the model. Results and Discussion The model was applied to Lake Maggiore emitting DDT at a constant rate until steady-state was reached. Emissions were stopped and later sporadic 'pulse' emissions were added. This was done to calculate the amount of DDT needed to simulate concentrations close to those measured in water and sediments. This allowed the evaluation of the order of magnitude of emissions. An uncertainty analysis for sediment resuspension was also performed, given the lack of measured resuspension rates. Conclusion The model showed the time response of the Lake Maggiore system to varying emission scenarios and provided what are regarded as reasonable estimates of DDT emissions. The model demonstrated the importance of sediment-water exchange. Recommendation and Outlook In order to better calculate DDT concentrations the model should be run with different discharge scenarios to clarify the time trends of concentrations, possibly with the use of different sets of measured data (such as biota and sediment deposition/resuspension rates).     

Validation of Urban Emission Inventories

Two emission validation methods are presented. The first method focuses on the precision of the emission factors and the accuracy of modelled traffic flows. Emission factors derived from the COPERT II methodology are compared with on-board emission measurements and modelled traffic flow rates are compared with observations. The second validation method focuses on the completeness of the inventory, i.e. coverage of all sources. The method compares measured pollutant fluxes in the urban plume with the downwind transported and dispersed emissions integrated over plume width and mixing height. Both methods seem to indicate that traffic emission factors used in the urban emission inventories show large uncertainties. Besides the lack of measurement precision this is mainly induced by external influence factors like driving behaviour and vehicle maintenance.     

Modelling feeding flow related shrinkage defects in aluminum castings

The process modelling of shape casting is geometrically complex and computationally very challenging. Besides the three-dimensional complex shapes with multiple domains, the defects of interest to industry arise as a consequence of the interaction amongst a range of phenomena. Conventionally, the key phenomena and defect prediction are modelled through empirical relations applied to the simulation results. Such approaches are neither comprehensive nor reliable. This paper presents a 3-D model that is capable of predicting the formation of shrinkage defects explicitly as a function of the interacting continuum phenomena, i.e. free surface flow, heat transfer, and solidification, in complex three-dimensional geometries which allows to identify the distinction between surface depression, surface connected cavities and internal cavities.The model solves the coupled macroscopic conservation equations for mass, momentum, and energy with a phase change during solidification. In the model, the volume deficit due to solidification can either be compensated by depression of the outside surface or by creating a cavity that initiates either on the surface or in the interior of the casting. The solidification morphology is taken into account by using a parameter, which depends on the fraction solid, in the momentum equation. By using an adapted free surface algorithm, it is suitable to predict surface connected defects: depressed surfaces and caved surfaces. A critical pressure serves as a criterion to open internal shrinkage cavities. The model does not need to search for connected zones to feed shrinkage, but the shrinkage distribution will automatically emerge from the continuity equation.This advanced shrinkage model has experimentally been validated successfully using two Al-Si alloys, a skin freezing eutectic alloy and a mushy freezing hypo-eutectic alloy.     

实验室检测/校准方法的确认研究

结合实验室方法确认工作中的经验,从方法确认的内容、过程、结果以及记录的形成等方面,阐述了实验室方法确认工作有效开展的保障措施。     

Testing of a GIS model ofEucalyptus Iargiflorens health on a semiarid,saline floodplain

Irrigated agriculture has resulted in substantial changes in water flows to the lower reaches of the River Murray. These changes have led to large-scale occurrences of dieback inEucalyptus largiflorens (black box) woodlands as well as increased inputs of salt to the river. Management options to address problems of this scale call for the use of spatial data sets via geographic information systems (GIS). A GIS exists for one floodplain of the River Murray at Chowilla, and a simple model predicted six health classes ofEucalyptus largiflorens based on groundwater salinity, flooding frequency, and groundwater depth.To determine the usefulness of the model for vegetation management, the quality of both the model and the GIS data sets were tested. Success of the testing procedure was judged by the degree of spatial matching between the model's predictions of health and that assessed from aerial photographs and by field truthing. Analyses at 80 sites showed that tree health was significantly greater where groundwater salinity was less than 40 dS/m or flooding occurred more frequently than 1 in 10 years or depth to groundwater exceeded 4 m. Testing of the GIS data sets found that vegetation was misclassified at 15% of sites. Association was shown between GIS-predicted values and field-truthed values of groundwater salinity but not groundwater depth. The GIS model of health is a useful starting point for future vegetation management and can be further improved by increasing the quality of the data coverages and further refining of the model to optimize parameters and thresholds.