Uncertainty in integrated coastal zone management

Uncertainty plays a major role in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A large part of this uncertainty is connected to our lack of knowledge of the integrated functioning of the coastal system and to the increasing need to act in a pro-active way. Increasingly, coastal managers are forced to take decisions based on information which is surrounded by uncertainties. Different types of uncertainty can be identified and the role of uncertainty in decision making, scientific uncertainty and model uncertainty in ICZM is discussed. The issue of spatial variability, which is believed to be extremely important in ICZM and represents a primary source of complexity and uncertainty, is also briefly introduced. Some principles for complex model building are described as an approach to handle, in a balanced way, the available data, information, knowledge and experience. The practical method of sensitivity analysis is then introduced as a method for a posterior evaluation of uncertainty in simulation models. We conclude by emphasising the need for the definition of an analysis plan in order to handle model uncertainty in a balanced way during the decision making process.     

Low cost measurements of nitrogen and sulphur dry deposition velocities at a semi-alpine site: gradient measurements and a comparison with deposition model estimates

The conditional time averaged gradient method was used to measure air-surface exchange of nitrogen and sulphur compounds at a semi-alpine site in Southern Norway. Dry deposition velocities were then obtained from the bi-weekly concentration gradient measurements. Annual deposition velocities were found to be 1.4, 11.8 and 4.0 mm s(-1) for NH3, HNO3 and SO2, respectively, if all data were included, and to be 10.8, 11.8 and 13.0 mm s(-1), respectively, if only positive values were included. Measured deposition velocities were compared to two sets of values estimated from a big-leaf dry deposition module applying to two different land types (short grass and forbs, and tundra), driven by measured micrometeorological parameters. The deposition module gives reasonable values for this site throughout the year, but does not reproduce the large variability as shown in the measured data. No apparent seasonal variations were found from either measurements or module estimates due to the very low productivity of the studied area.     

斑马鱼基因组随机扩增DNA多态性研究

采用随机扩增DNA多态性（RAPD）技术，对毒性试验的模式生物斑马鱼（Danio rerio）基因组进行了分析。结果显示，在Amersham Pharmacia公司随机扩增引物系列中，分别在01号引物的829bp、534bp，02号引物的572bp，及06号引物的495pb，各出现1条稳定条带，而环磷酰胺作用后的斑马鱼基因组DAN随机扩增产物中，缺少了部分稳定条带。这可以明确判定受试斑马鱼的基因发生了改变，为水环境遗传毒性效尖的研究提供了初步的数据基础。     

Vertical migration of radionuclides in undisturbed grassland soils

Literature data on numerical values obtained for the parameters of the two most popular models for simulating the migration of radionuclides in undisturbed soils have been compiled and evaluated statistically. Due to restrictions on the applicability of compartmental models, the convection–dispersion equation and its parameter values should be preferred. For radiocaesium, recommended values are derived for its effective convection velocity and dispersion coefficient. Data deficiencies still exist for radionuclides other than caesium and for soils of non-temperate environments.     

Citizen science networks in natural history and the collective validation of biodiversity data

Biodiversity data are in increasing demand to inform policy and management. A substantial portion of these data is generated in citizen science networks. To ensure the quality of biodiversity data, standards and criteria for validation have been put in place. We used interviews and document analysis from the United Kingdom and The Netherlands to examine how data validation serves as a point of connection between the diverse people and practices in natural history citizen science networks. We found that rather than a unidirectional imposition of standards, validation was performed collectively. Specifically, it was enacted in ongoing circulations of biodiversity records between recorders and validators as they jointly negotiated the biodiversity that was observed and the validity of the records. These collective validation practices contributed to the citizen science character or natural history networks and tied these networks together. However, when biodiversity records were included in biodiversity‐information initiatives on different policy levels and scales, the circulation of records diminished. These initiatives took on a more extractive mode of data use. Validation ceased to be collective with important consequences for the natural history networks involved and citizen science more generally.     

A method of approach to landscape stability. Part 1: Fundamentals and methodology

A four-stage method of providing conditions for improving the stability of a landscape sector is presented. In the first stage, structure and function of the landscape system is examined, predominantly based on the results of monitoring. In the second stage, a method is suggested for applying monitoring data to a dynamic structure with complex functions of the territory under examination. In the third stage, the territory is optimized as to the function of particular components within it. The optimization consists in controlling the dynamics of the flows of material, energy, and population within the sector. In the fourth stage, the holistic function of the landscape strip should be monitored with respect to representative key factors. The entire concept is based on assuming the existence of destabilizing processes leading to ecocritical situations and determining mitigating factors using heuristic methods of optimization.     

广深准高速铁路安全管理模式探讨

广深准高速铁路的开通运营，以及广深铁路公司股份制改造，从客观上要求改革与优化铁路安全管理体制，建工新的铁路安全管理模式。本文构造了广深铁路安全管理模式，满足国家确定的“企业负责，行业管理，国家监察，群众监督”的安全工作体制要求，引入风险管理，实行事故保险，提出应该以安全文化作为新模式的软件，优化新的安全管理体制。     

NETWORK AND SUBWATERSHED PARAMETERS EXTRACTED FROM DIGITAL ELEVATION MODELS: THE BILLS CREEK EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: An automated extraction of channel network and sub-watershed characteristics from digital elevation models (DEM) is performed by model DEDNM. This model can process DEM data of limited vertical resolution representing low relief terrain. Such representations often include ill-defined drainage boundaries and indeterminate flow paths. The application watershed is an 84 km² low relief watershed in southwestern Oklahoma. The standard for validation is the network and subwatershed parameters defined by the blue line method on USGS 7.5–minute topographic maps. Evaluation of the generated and validation networks by visual comparisons shows a high degree of correlation. Comparison of selected network parameters (channel length, slope, drainage density, etc.) and of drainage network composition (bifurcation, length, slope, and area ratios) shows that, on the average, the generated parameters are within 5 percent of those derived from the validation network. The largest discrepancies were found for the channel slope values. The results of this application demonstrate that DEDNM effectively addresses network definition problems often encountered in low relief terrain and that it can generate accurate network and subwatershed parameters under those conditions.     

Multicriteria evaluation of simulated logging scenarios in a tropical rain forest

Forest growth models are useful tools for investigating the long-term impacts of logging. In this paper, the results of the rain forest growth model FORMIND were assessed by a multicriteria decision analysis. The main processes covered by FORMIND include tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. Tree growth is calculated based on a carbon balance approach. Trees compete for light and space; dying large trees fall down and create gaps in the forest. Sixty-four different logging scenarios for an initially undisturbed forest stand at Deramakot (Malaysia) were simulated. The scenarios differ regarding the logging cycle, logging method, cutting limit and logging intensity. We characterise the impacts with four criteria describing the yield, canopy opening and changes in species composition. Multicriteria decision analysis was used for the first time to evaluate the scenarios and identify the efficient ones. Our results plainly show that reduced-impact logging scenarios are more 'efficient' than the others, since in these scenarios forest damage is minimised without significantly reducing yield. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between yield and achieving a desired ecological state of logged forest; the ecological state of the logged forests can only be improved by reducing yields and enlarging the logging cycles. Our study also demonstrates that high cutting limits or low logging intensities cannot compensate for the high level of damage caused by conventional logging techniques.     

Toward Adaptive Management: The Impacts of Different Management Strategies on Fish Stocks and Fisheries in a Large Regulated Lake

We applied the adaptive management approach to analyze the demand and feasibility of adaptive management of fish stocks in a large regulated lake, Oulujärvi, in northern Finland. The process consisted of four phases: (1) analysis of the current state of the fisheries system (fishers, related markets and industry, fisheries researches and authorities, related organizations, etc.); (2) analysis of the objectives of different stakeholders; (3) the composition of alternative management strategies and assessment of their impacts; and (4) recommendations for future management. We used catch statistics from the period 1973–1995 to analyze fish stocks and fishing. Fish species involved were brown trout (Salmo trutta L.), whitefish [Coregonus lavaretus (L.) sl.], vendace (Coregonus albula L.); and pikeperch (Stizostedion lucioperca L.). Questionnaires and interviews were applied to ascertain the opinions of different groups of fishermen. Several models and cost–benefit analysis were used to assess the ecological, economic, and social impacts of three alternative management strategies. The results emphasize that when determining stocking levels and fishing regulations, the system should be considered as a whole, and impacts on major fish species and different groups of fishermen should be assessed. The stocking policy and fishing regulations should also be flexible to accommodate changing biotic and societal conditions. The key questions in applying the adaptive management process in Oulujärvi fisheries are how to determine clear objectives for fisheries management, find a fisheries management structure that provides workable interactions between different stakeholders, and arrange cost-effective monitoring. The lessons learned from the Oulujärvi experience and recommendations for fisheries management are relevant to other lakes with conflicting objectives of different stakeholders.