Designs with a priori information for nonmarket valuation with choice experiments: A Monte Carlo study

Good practice in experimental design is essential for choice experiments used in nonmarket valuation. We review the practice of experimental design for choice experiments in environmental economics and we compare it with advances in experimental design. We then evaluate the statistical efficiency of four different designs by means of Monte Carlo experiments. Correct and incorrect specifications are investigated with gradually more precise information on the true parameter values. The data generating process (DGP) is based on estimates from data of a real study. Results indicate that D-efficient designs are promising, especially when based on Bayesian algorithms with informative prior. However, if good quality a priori information is lacking, and if there is strong uncertainty about the real DGP—conditions which are quite common in environmental valuation—then practitioners might be better off with shifted designs built from conventional fractional factorial designs for linear models.     

意愿调查价值评估法的问卷设计技术

意愿调查价值评估法是目前西方广泛采用的一种环境物品经济价值的评估方法。它的优越性在于适用范围广 ,能够完整地评价环境物品的价值。但是由于偏差的存在 ,这一方法需要深入研究 ,精心设计 ,其中调查问卷的设计尤为重要。本文系统地分析了意愿调查价值评估法的问卷设计技术 ,包括环境物品、支付工具、评价背景和问卷的预先检查。采用适当的问卷设计技术的最终目的是减小偏差 ,提高调查结果的准确性     

水环境质量评价的灰色局势决策法

将行评价样本作为事件，水质级别作为对策，构造局势，通过用效果测度统一计量评价指标，提出了用灰色局势决策综合评价水质污染的方法，结合山东某河流水污染评价与其它方法进行了对比，指出该方法的优越性。     

Changes in Forest Use Value through Ecological Succession and Their Implications for Land Management in the Peruvian Amazon

Abstract:  Research on local use values of forests across an ecological succession informs land-use decisions and conservation planning. I evaluated use values of three age classes of secondary forest: fallow fields (<5 years old, $8.20/ha/year), young secondary forest (5–20 years old, $20.60/ha/year), and old secondary forest (>20 years old, $6.80/ha/year). I quantified daily forest product use and calculated use values in dollars per hectare per year for three communities in the northern Peruvian Amazon. I made three comparisons between forest types: number of useful species, value based on different use categories, and overall use values. Old secondary forest had the greatest number of total species present and species collected. Wood, food, and medicine were the three most valuable use categories. The value different families extracted from local forests varied enormously, but median forest values were lower for all forest types than potential gains from agricultural land use (e.g., coffee $167/ha/year). Values of different-aged stands on privately owned lands in two communities did not differ significantly, whereas in the third community, young secondary forest had a significantly greater value than other forest types. Old secondary forests were the most valuable source of wood products, and wood was the only use category in which there was any difference in the value of products extracted from different-aged forest stands. The value of all three forest types on open-access (nonprivate) lands was minimal (mean in each forest type, $0/ha/year). Local people can utilize the valuation results to develop land-use strategies that balance forest product use, agricultural productivity, and biodiversity conservation.     

VALUING URBAN WATER ACQUISITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Municipalities typically seek additional water supplies whenever prospective population and economic growth suggests the inadequacy of currently available water supply. The benefit of supply enhancement is usually construed as avoiding debilitating water scarcity. A more effective approach to planning is to compare the benefits and costs of supply augmentation. The net present value of benefits for a supply increase in a representative Texas community is calculated for alternative scenarios relating to population growth, rate growth, and the temporal distribution of the increased supply. Consumer surplus measures are sensitive to all three of these factors and vary from $0 to over $4000 per acre-foot. A notable finding is that the added supply may offer zero values in cases where real water prices increase at an annualized rate of 4 percent (or greater) which is half the rate occurring in Texas from 1981–1985.     

LAKE AND RWER QUALITY FOR RECREATION MANAGEMENT AND CONTINGENT VALUATION1

ABSTRACT: Accurate valuation of recreational lakes and rivers in contingent valuation (CV) studies requires that the definition of the environmental good being sold meets the requirements of correspondence, proximity, and familiarity. The concept of ‘water quality’ normally used fails to meet these requirements. This paper offers a broader concept of “lake/river quality” - a collection of physical, ecological, and aesthetic characteristics that create the opportunity for recreation, scenic enjoyment, and fish and wildlife propagation - that better describes the characteristics that recreationists value in lakes and rivers. The concept therefore better meets CV requirements and should be the basis for defining environmental improvements and declines to be hypothetically sold in CV surveys.     

澳门改善固体废弃物管理的总经济价值评估

针对目前澳门固体废弃物管理存在的问题,应用二分式条件价值评估法以居民支付意愿的方式研究了实施垃圾减量化策略的固体废弃物管理方案在澳门的总经济价值。结果表明,80.56%的居民对该固体废弃物管理方案存在支付意愿,其平均支付意愿为每人每月19.50MOP,将这一结果推广到面上,得到澳门改善固体废弃物管理的年总经济价值为8.45×107MOP,影响澳门居民支付意愿的因素主要包括澳门居民的固体废弃物管理意识、受教育水平和家庭月总收入等。     

基于Meta分析的中国水资源价值移位研究

Meta分析价值移位方法是国际上资源价值评价领域关注的热点,国内相关研究较少。水作为重要的自然资源,研究其价值是解决我国水资源问题的关键途径。本文搜集我国水资源价值评估实证研究结果,建立效益移位基础数据库,应用基于Meta分析的函数效益移位方法,对我国水资源价值移位做实证研究,探讨效益移位法在我国水资源价值评估领域的可应用性及发展前景。结果表明:①水资源所在地、人口密度、水质、供水成本和利润以及对最大水费承受程度的差异会影响地区水资源价值变化;②模型平均移位误差在可接受范围内,可用于快速评估地区水资源价值;③省级层面水资源价值呈现出沿海高于内陆,华北、华东和西南高于其他地区的空间分异 规律。     

A new recoding method for treating protest responses in contingent valuation studies using travel cost data

In this paper, it is proposed one method to recode protest responses applicable to the simple dichotomous format valuation question made to visitors to natural environment in contingent valuation studies. Those respondents that give a protest response but have a travel cost greater than the bid proposed in the valuation question are recoded as an affirmative answer to the proposed payment. The economic justification lies in the minimum willingness to pay for enjoying the environment that travel cost reveals, while valuation question tries to obtain information about respondent maximum willingness to pay. Recoding allows to recover information and to improve estimates, accuracy. It also avoids computational complexity associated with sample selection models used to avoid biases derived from excluding protest responses.     

Correlation structure between inflation and oil futures returns: An equilibrium approach

We use an equilibrium model of a monetary economy to understand the economics behind the correlation between inflation and oil futures returns. We find that some of the positive correlation found in empirical studies is due to the fact that oil is in the consumption basket; however, this accounts only for a minor part of it. There exist other important sources of correlation related to monetary shocks and output shocks. In particular, we find that the correlation is extremely sensitive to the reaction of the central bank to output shocks, while the reaction to inflation changes is less significant. We estimate our model using maximum likelihood with the following data sets: crude oil futures prices, nominal interest rates, inflation rates and money supply growth rates. Our estimates suggest that the monetary authority overreacts to output shocks by increasing the money supply in a more than necessary amount, generating a significant source of positive correlation. From a practical perspective, We find that it is a good strategy to use as a hedge, the futures whose maturity is closer to the hedging horizon. This is particularly true for short-term hedging.