利用CFSR数据开展海上风电场长年代风能资源评估

开展长年代风能资源评估可为海上风电场的可行性研究和风险评估提供依据和支撑。创新性地引入了气候预测系统再分析(CFSR)数据,以江苏响水海上风电场为例开展了长年代风能资源评估,结果表明:CFSR数据10 m高度风速与海上气象塔10 m高度风速的平均偏差为-0.2 m·s~(-1),均方根误差为1.9 m·s~(-1);CFSR数据10 m高度风速与海上气象塔90 m高度风速的相关系数范围在0.359~0.619,相比气象站的相关系数提高了40%~90%;长年代订正得到海上气象塔90 m高度近30 a的风数据,多年平均风速为6.9 m·s~(-1),标准差为0.2 m·s~(-1)(2.9%);测算出海上风电场近30年的等效满负荷小时数,多年平均值为2 423 h,标准差为112 h(4.6%);评估出25 a一遇(海上风电场的寿命期)、10 a一遇、5 a一遇的最小年平均风速分别为6.6、6.7和6.8 m·s~(-1),最小年等效满负荷小时数分别为2 227、2 280和2 329 h。利用CFSR数据开展海上风电场长年代风能资源评估在技术上是可行的。     

Fish consumption reduces transfer of BDE47 from dam to murine offspring

Fish and seafood are important contributions to a healthy diet, but also contain persistent organic pollutants (POPs) like polybrominated diphenylethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Discrepancies have been found between intake and accumulated levels of POPs, where fish consumers have had similar levels of POPs to the general population. Similarly fish oil consumption has been found to reduce accumulation of POPs. This study examined the accumulation of BDE47 or PCB153 in mice fed diets with different nutritional composition, using female mice with pre-weanling pups exposed through gestation and lactation. A fish-based diet was compared to a standard casein-based rodent diet. All diets had low background levels of environmental contaminants and were spiked with BDE47 or PCB153 to levels representing a realistic (∼0.004 μmol kgbw⁻¹ d) or a high dietary exposure (∼1.3 μmol kgbw⁻¹ d). Accumulation of BDE47 or PCB153 in offspring tissues after 18 d lactation reflected the maternal exposure levels. However, the pups of dams fed a fish-based diet had consistently lower BDE47 accumulation in liver, fat and stomach than pups from casein-fed dams. Similarly the pups of dams fed a high dose of PCB153 in a fish diet also accumulated less PCB153 than pups of the dams fed a casein diet, although not significant. In conclusion, the fish based diets seemed to reduce transfer of BDE47 and PCB153 from dams to pups. The study highlights that in-depth knowledge about nutritional impact on toxicokinetics is of great interest to vulnerable consumers.     

Spatial Patterns of Macrobenthic Communities in Shallow-Water Tidal Embayments and Their Association with Environmental Factors

This study examines the distribution, composition, and structure of benthic communities in nine shallow-water semienclosed embayments on Cape Cod, southeastern Massachusetts. The spatial patterns were used to associate benthic characteristics with local environmental factors. Field data from multiple years were collected to measure macrofaunal abundance, community composition, and environmental characteristics. Multivariate statistics were used to analyze the spatial variations of species composition and the abundance of benthic macrofauna. Canonical ordination, specifically redundancy analysis, was used to determine the relative importance of the environmental factors (nutrients and habitat factors) being studied. The analyses demonstrate that the benthic communities in the shallow tidal embayments are clearly clustered in association with the local environments. Species composition and community structure of the benthic macrofauna are significantly correlated with water column parameters, especially with phytoplankton biomass, total nitrogen, and dissolved oxygen.     

The utility of behavioral studies for aquatic toxicology testing: A meta-analysis

Behavioral responses have been applied for decades as tools for aquatic toxicity testing, but have received far less attention than studies assessing lethality, development or reproduction. With improved visual and non-visual assessment tools and increased knowledge of the importance of behavior for organism health and fitness, interest in behavioral analysis has increased in recent years. However, to our knowledge there has never been a quantitative assessment of the available techniques for organismal toxicity testing, so it is not clear whether behavioral studies represent valuable additions to environmental monitoring. We performed a meta-analysis comparing the relative sensitivities and average durations of behavioral studies to those assessing acute lethality, development and reproduction. Results demonstrate that the average duration of behavioral studies is consistently less than developmental or reproductive studies, and that behavioral endpoints are generally more sensitive than those assessing development or reproduction. We found effect sizes to be lower but power to be higher in behavioral and reproductive studies compared to studies assessing development, which likely relates to low sample sizes commonly used in developmental studies. Overall, we conclude that behavioral studies are comparatively fast and sensitive, and therefore warrant further attention as tools for assessing the toxicological effects of environmental contaminants. We suggest that research aimed at developing and optimizing techniques for behavioral analysis could prove extremely useful to the field of toxicology, but that future work must be directed at determining what specific behaviors are most sensitive to various classes of contaminants, and at understanding the relevance of changes to discrete behaviors for influencing organismal and population-level health and fitness.     

Measuring and modeling nitrous oxide and methane emissions from beef cattle feedlot manure management: First assessments under Brazilian condition

Intensive beef production has increased during recent decades in Brazil and may substantially increase both methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from manure management. However, the quantification of these gases and methods for extrapolating them are scarce in Brazil. A case study examines CH₄ and N₂O emissions from one typical beef cattle feedlot manure management continuum in Brazil and the applicability of Manure-DNDC model in predicting these emissions for better understand fluxes and mitigation options. Measurements track CH₄ and N₂O emissions from manure excreted in one housing floor holding 21 animals for 78 days, stockpiled for 73 days and field spread (360 kg N ha^?1). We found total emissions (CH₄ + N₂O) of 0.19 ± 0.10 kg CO₂eq per kg of animal live weight gain; mostly coming from field application (73%), followed housing (25%) and storage (2%). The Manure-DNDC simulations were generally within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, differing in ?28% in total emission. Large uncertainties in measurements showed the model was more accurate estimating the magnitude of gases emissions than replicate results at daily basis. Modeled results suggested increasing the frequency of manure removal from housing, splitting the field application and adopting no-tillage system is the most efficient management for reducing emissions from manure (up to about 75%). Since this work consists in the first assessment under Brazilian conditions, more and continuous field measurements are required for decreasing uncertainties and improving model validations. However, this paper reports promising results and scientific perceptions for the design of further integrated work on farm-scale measurements and Manure-DNDC model development for Brazilian conditions.     

Molecular indicators for pollution source identification in marine and terrestrial water of the industrial area of Kavala city, North Greece

Eight terrestrial and four marine water samples were collected from the industrial section of the city of Kavala in northern Greece to determine the occurrence and distribution of organic contaminants, as well as to identify the molecular markers of different emission sources. The samples were analyzed by means of non-target screening analyses. The analytical procedure included a sequential extraction of the samples, GC-FID, GC/MS analyses, and additional quantitative analyses of selected pollutants. The results show a wide variety of compounds including halogenated compounds, technical additives and metabolites, phosphates, phthalates, benzothiazoles, etc. A close relationship between many of the contaminants and their emission sources was determined based on their molecular structures and information on technical applications.     

Single and joint stress of acetochlor and Pb on three agricultural crops in northeast China

In order to evaluate ecological risk of agrochemicals in agricultural environment, single and joint toxic effects of an important herbicide and a typical heavy metal on root elongation of crops were investigated. Seeds of the three crops including wheat （Triticum aestivum）, Chinese cabbage （Brassica pekimensis） and soybean （Glycine max） as the main crops in northeast China were exposed to acetochior as a herbicide and lead （Pb） as a heavy metal using the pot-culture method, and meadow brown soil as one of the main soils distributed in northeast China was applied in the investigation. The results indicated that the interactive effects of the two pollutants on root elongation of the three crops were very complicated although they had markedly significant （P〈0.01） linear interrelationships based on the regression analyses. When the concentration of added Pb^2＋ reached 200 mg/kg, acetochlor and Pb had an antagonistic effect on the inhibition of root elongation of the three crops. However, acetochlor and Pb had significantly （P〈0.05） synergic effects on the inhibition of root elongation when concentration of added Pb^2＋ was up to 1000 mg/kg. At the low concentration of added Pb, joint toxicity of acetochlor and Pb was more dependent on the concentration of Pb. Among the three crops, wheat was the most sensitive to the toxicity of Pb and Chinese cabbage was the most sensitive to the toxicity of acetochlor.     

Identification of long-range transport pathways and potential sources of PM2.5 and PM10 in Beijing from 2014 to 2015

Trajectory clustering, potential source contribution function (PSCF) and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) methods were applied to investigate the transport pathways and identify potential sources of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ in different seasons from June 2014 to May 2015 in Beijing. The cluster analyses showed that Beijing was affected by trajectories from the south and southeast in summer and autumn. In winter and spring, Beijing was not only affected by the trajectories from the south and southeast, but was also affected by trajectories from the north and northwest. In addition, the analyses of the pressure profile of backward trajectories showed that backward trajectories, which have important influence on Beijing, were mainly distributed above 970 hPa in summer and autumn and below 950 hPa in spring and winter. This indicates that PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were strongly affected by the near surface air masses in summer and autumn and by high altitude air masses in winter and spring. Results of PSCF and CWT analyses showed that the largest potential source areas were identified in spring, followed by winter and autumn, then summer. In addition, potential source regions of PM₁₀ were similar to those of PM_2.5. There were a clear seasonal and spatial variation of the potential source areas of Beijing and the airflow in the horizontal and vertical directions. Therefore, more effective regional emission reduction measures in Beijing''s surrounding provinces should be implemented to reduce emissions of regional sources in different seasons.     

我国安全生产发展趋势的计量分析

在分析我国1990—2005年安全生产指标变动规律的基础上,建立了安全生产指标的长期趋势模型,并对安全生产指标进行了预测。同时,分别以人均GDP指标为解释变量、安全生产指标为被解释变量建立了计量关系模型,以此反映我国安全生产随经济发展的变动规律。研究表明,从业人员10万人死亡率呈波动上升趋势,与人均GDP指标存在显著二次关系;亿元GDP死亡率指标呈现持续下降趋势。这表明在我国经济总量快速增长的过程中安全负担水平得到了较好控制。     

Dynamics of calling: A longitudinal study of musicians

The dominant view of calling among management scholars is that it is a stable construct that does not change. This view has resulted in a research void about calling's early development and subsequent evolution. Insight into the dynamic process through which callings develop is fundamental to understanding its role in people's careers and lives. In this study, I focus on the antecedents of calling, a consuming, meaningful passion people can experience toward a domain. I propose a dynamic model in which calling can change over time and can be shaped by antecedent factors, specifically, through people's ability, behavioral involvement, and social comfort in the area toward which they feel a calling. I tested these ideas in a seven‐year, four‐wave prospective longitudinal survey study of 450 amateur musicians. Multilevel analyses indicate individuals who were more behaviorally involved and felt higher social comfort in the calling domain (e.g., music) experienced higher levels of calling early on but experienced a decline in calling over time. Individuals' ability in the calling domain was not related to initial calling or change in calling. I discuss the implications for theory and research on calling, meaning of work, and the dynamics of careers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.