垃圾填埋场室内模拟试验注水量确定方法及其应用

针对填埋场室内模拟试验往往忽略降雨径流和初损的问题,提出运用SCS模型确定室内模拟试验日注水量的方法,并将计算结果应用于成都长安填埋场室内模拟试验中.结果表明,采用SCS模型计算所得的日入渗量进行注水的模拟柱渗滤液产量和水质变化能够更准确的模拟填埋场实际情况.     

Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.     

Testing hypotheses on shape and distribution of ecological response curves

Niche theory with hypotheses on shape and distribution of ecological response curves is used in the studies of resource sharing of competing plant species. Predictions based on theory should be applicable when, e.g., effects of competing species on the ecological tolerances are assessed or species’ diversity along a resource gradient is evaluated. We studied the ecological response curves of competing plant species along a resource gradient in boreal forests. The study was based on nation-wide soil and vegetation data collected from 455 sample plots on boreal forests in Finland. Species response curves along a soil fertility gradient (in terms of C/N ratio) were estimated using generalized additive models. Distribution of species optima and the relationship of niche width and skewness to the location of the optimum were analyzed with new bootstrap tests. The developed tests can account for the effects of truncation observed in the response curves of several species and for the uneven distribution of observations on the gradient.The estimated response curves of the major field layer species of boreal forests were not evenly distributed along soil C/N gradient. The density of optima peaked with relatively high nitrogen availability. Species with optima at low nitrogen availability had relatively broad realized niches. Niche width was negatively correlated with the density of optima. Species optima were packed and niches were narrow at high resource levels. This result suggests that a greater number of more specialized species can occur and interspecific competition decreases niche widths at high resource levels. Species were packed in the gradient where the C/N ratio was lower than 25, i.e., in conditions where nitrification can take place. This indicates that the majority of the vascular plants of boreal forests are favoured by the availability of NO₃⁻. Those few species thriving at high C/N ratios have broader realized niches.     

长期施肥对土壤有机质积累的影响

20年的NPK施肥定位试验,有利于深刻揭示土壤肥力特征与营养平衡规律。以位于黄淮海平原的中国科学院禹城综合试验站为例,探讨和估算了长期定量施肥对冬小麦（TriticuspaestvumL．）、夏玉米（ZeaMaysL．）生长和土壤有机质（SOM）的影响。结果表明,长期的N、P肥配施或N、P、K均衡施肥,可显著增加SOM储量,并且后者要优于前者;SOM增加主要集中在0-20cm深度的土层,40-60cm基本不变;生物量对SOM储量变化影响明显,NPK,NP处理作物生长良好,作物残体输人明显优于其他处理;0-40cm可以代表该区用以计算土壤固碳潜力,并且在N、P、K均衡施肥条件下,0-40cm土层中SOM储量长期以来持续增加,并未达到上限,每年的平均固碳速率（以C计）达182．8kg·hm-1,约是全球平均水平的1．5倍,全国平均水平的1．1倍。华北平原若按N、P、K均衡施肥,农田土壤每年固碳潜力将达到1．6-2．4Tg·a-1。     

硫酸雾测试方法若干问题思考

简述了我国硫酸雾测试方法的发展历史,分析和总结了《固定污染源废气硫酸雾的测定离子色谱法》(HJ 544—2016)存在的一些争议和问题,包括硫酸雾的定义、测试方法的干扰控制等。分析认为,相比《硫酸工业污染物排放标准》(GB 26132—2010),HJ 544—2016对硫酸雾的定义更加合理。实验结果表明:硫酸盐是测试方法条件下的目标物,滤筒可以显著地捕捉硫酸盐。9组样品滤筒中,被测目标物所占比例为7. 9%～69. 1%;滤筒和前吸收液中,被测目标物所占比例为93. 7%～97. 8%。HJ 544—2016新增加的两级串联碱液吸收瓶可以较完全地捕集穿透滤筒后的硫酸雾,同时也会捕集SO₂。SO₂会对硫酸雾测试产生正干扰,约42. 9%的SO₂在被吸收后转化为硫酸雾。     

车载巡测在区域射频电磁环境质量监测与表征中的应用分析

对北京中央电视塔周围25 km²区域电磁环境质量分别进行了射频的网格法手工监测和车载巡测自动监测，通过SPSS软件等对两种监测方法获取的数据进行了统计对比分析，发现两组数据在总体水平及数值分布特征上较为接近，因此车载巡测监测可以替代网格法监测。以车载巡测数据为基础，绘制了实测数据的道路电磁地图，利用插值法绘制了区域电磁地图，对区域电磁环境质量进行了直观表征。从回应公众关注和城市电磁规划出发，建议今后可利用车载巡测监测加强时域和频域的监测。     

Laboratory longitudinal diffusion tests: 2. Parameter estimation by inverse analysis

This study focuses on the verification of test interpretations for different state analyses of diffusion experiments. Part 1 of this study identified that steady, quasi-steady and equilibrium state analyses for the through- and in-diffusion tests with solution reservoirs are generally feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In Part 2 we investigate parameter identifiability in transient-state analysis of reservoir concentration variation using a numerical approach. For increased generality, the analytical models, objective functions and Jacobian matrix necessary for inverse analysis of transient-state data are reformulated using unified dimensionless parameters. In these dimensionless forms, the number of unknown parameters is reduced and a single dimensionless parameter represents the sorption property. The dimensionless objective functions are evaluated for individual test methods and parameter identifiability is discussed in relation to the sorption property. The effects of multiple minima and measurement error on parameter identifiability are also investigated. The main findings are that inverse problems for inlet and outlet reservoir concentration analyses are generally unstable and well-posed, respectively. Where the tracer is sorptive, the inverse problem for the inlet reservoir concentration analysis may have multiple minima. When insufficient measurement data is collected, multiple solutions may result and this should be taken into consideration when inversely analyzing data including that of inlet reservoir concentration. Verification of test interpretation by cross-checking different state analyses is feasible where the tracer is not highly sorptive. In an actual experiment, test interpretation validity is demonstrated through consistency between theory and practice for different state analyses.     

Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?

In this paper, we examine temporal properties of 11 natural resource real price series from 1870 to 1990. Recent studies by Ahrens and Sharma [Trends in natural resource commodity prices: deterministic or stochastic? J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 33(1997)59–74], Berck and Roberts [Natural resource prices: will they ever turn up? J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 31(1996)65–78], and Slade [Grade selection under uncertainty: least cost last and other anomalies, J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 15(1988)189–205], among others, find that many non-renewable resource prices have a stochastic trend. We revisit this issue by employing a Lagrangian multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend. Contrary to previous research, we find evidence against the unit root hypothesis for all price series. Our findings support characterizing natural resource prices as stationary around deterministic trends with structural breaks. We additionally show that both pre-testing for unit roots with breaks and allowing for breaks in the forecast model can improve forecast accuracy. Overall, the results in this paper are important in both a positive and normative sense; without an appropriate understanding of the dynamics of a time series, empirical verification of theories, forecasting, and proper inference are potentially fruitless.     

复合人工湿地对有机污染物的去除效果初步研究

研究了由不同植物配置(驯化和未驯化)的两组下行和上行植物床组成的复合人工湿地对生活污水的净化效果。结果表明,CODCr和BOD5的去除率达67.3%,68.1%,总氮(TN)的去除率为26.9%,总磷(TP)的去除主要发生在上行床,去除率为81.6%。环芳烃(PAHs)中苊(Ace)、荧蒽(Flu)、芘(Py)、苯并[a]蒽(BaA)、屈(Chr)、苯并[b]荧蒽(BbF)、苯并[a]芘(BaP)、茚并[1,2,3-cd]芘(InP)和苯并[g,h,i](BPR)经下行床后,去除率超过80%,上行床去除较少。驯化床和未驯化床对PAHs的去除效果差异不显著。邻苯二甲酸酯(PAEs)中邻苯二甲酸二乙酯(DEP)和邻苯二甲酸二异丁酯(DiBP)经驯化床后,质量浓度显著升高,经未驯化床后邻苯二甲酸二(2-乙基)己酯(DEHP)含量显著降低。蚕豆根尖微核实验表明,不同植物配置对微核率影响差异并不显著,毒害物质经下行床后大部分被去除。     

林丹短期暴露下的斑马鱼(Brachydanio rerio)组织学变化

以斑马鱼(Brachydaniorerio)为受试生物,初步探讨了林丹对斑马鱼的急性毒性以及不同浓度(0.01μg·L-1、1.0μg·L-1、100.0μg·L-1)的林丹暴露36d后对斑马鱼鳃和肝组织结构变化的影响.结果表明,林丹对斑马鱼96h-LC50为97.98μg·L-1,95%可信限为94.38￣101.72μg·L-1.当林丹浓度为0.01μg·L-1时,斑马鱼的鳃和肝组织结构未发生明显变化,而暴露在1.0μg·L-1和100.0μg·L-1林丹溶液中的斑马鱼的鳃和肝组织结构变化显著.斑马鱼鳃组织变化为:上皮细胞残损、脱落,鳃小片上皮细胞水肿,柱细胞变形.斑马鱼肝组织变化为:部分肝细胞肿大,细胞核萎缩变形或偏离细胞中心,胞质疏松,空泡明显增加,细胞质中可见脂沉积.与1.0μg·L-1林丹暴露相比,暴露在100μg·L-1林丹溶液中的斑马鱼鳃和肝组织结构受到的损害更为严重.