Time series modelling of respiratory hospital admissions and geometrically weighted distributed lag effects from ambient particulate air pollution within Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

The distributed lag effects of ambient particulate air pollution exposure on respiratory hospital admissions in Kathmandu Valley are modelled using daily time series data. The extended exposure to PM₁₀ is accounted for by assigning weights to daily average PM₁₀ which decline geometrically as the lag period increases in days. Results show that the percent increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospital admissions and respiratory admissions including COPD, asthma, pneumonia, and bronchitis per 10 μg/m³ rise in PM₁₀ are found to be 4.85% for 30 days lag effect, about 15.9% higher than that observed for same-day lag effect and 3.52% for 40 days lag effect, about 28.9% higher than the observed value for same-day lag effect, respectively.     

Dose transfer of Bacillus thuringiensis from cabbage to the diamondback moth: A graphical simulator

Abstract

The application of agrichemicals is a highly inefficient process and one of the main causes of the environmental and health risks currently associated with pesticide usage. Efforts to mitigate this inefficiency have largely been unsuccessful, due principally to the poor understanding of the processes involved in the spray application of pesticides, from atomization to biological effect. A generalized model of the application system for pesticides from atomization to biological result is described in this overview. The model allows the investigation of the biological consequences of altering the application parameters for the bacterial insecticide Bacillus thuringiensis when used against the diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella L.) with cabbage as the substrate. Parameters input into the model include the in‐flight droplet size frequency distribution of the spray cloud, spatial distribution of the deposit, spread and subsequent environmental degradation of the deposit, and behavioral and toxicological effects.

It is hoped that such a modelling approach can afford insights into the application process, and, through a better understanding of the inefficient but still highly effective hydraulic application systems used worldwide, reduce that inefficiency to tolerable levels.     

Structurally-consistent estimation of use and nonuse values for landscape-wide environmental change

We address the problem of estimating the use and nonuse value derived from a landscape-wide programme of environmental change. Working in the random utility framework, we develop a structural model that describes both demand for recreational trips to the landscape's quality-differentiated natural areas and preferences over different landscape-wide patterns of environmental quality elicited in a choice experiment. The structural coherence of the model ensures that the parameters of the preference function can be simultaneously estimated from the combination of revealed and stated preference data. We explore the properties of the model in a Monte Carlo experiment and then apply it to a study of preferences for changes in the ecological quality of rivers in northern England. This implementation reveals plausible estimates of the use and nonuse parameters of the model and provides insights into the distance decay in those two different forms of value.     

An Integrated Approach Towards Assessing the Value of Water: A Case Study on the Zambezi Basin

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for assessing the value of water in the different stages in the water cycle. It is hypothesised that if a cubic metre of water provides some benefit in some spot at a certain moment, this cubic metre of water has a certain value not only at that point in space and time, but in its previous stages within the water cycle as well. This means that, while water particles flow from upstream to downstream, water values ‘flow’ in exactly the opposite direction. The value of water in a certain place is equal to its value in situ plus an accumulated value derived from downstream. This value-flow concept is elaborated for the Zambezi basin. It is found that water produces the smallest direct economic benefits in the upper part of the Zambezi basin. However, water flows in this part of the basin − due to their upstream location − have the highest indirect values. Return flows from the water-using sectors are particularly valuable in the upstream sub-basins. The analysis shows that the value per unit of river water increases if we go from downstream to upstream. Another finding of the study is that percolation of rainwater is generally more valuable than surface runoff. Finally, a plan to export water from the river Zambezi to South Africa is evaluated in terms of its opportunity costs. The results of this study show that the value-flow concept offers the possibility of accounting for the cyclic nature of water when estimating its value. It is stressed, however, that for the current study many crude assumptions had to be made, so that the exact numbers presented should be regarded with extreme caution. Further research is necessary to provide more precise and validated estimates. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Adsorption behavior of 17α-ethynylestradiol onto soils followed by fluorescence spectral deconvolution

In this study, a simple and rapid procedure for monitoring adsorption of 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2) onto soil samples was developed. The used method is based on a multiwavelength fluorescence spectral deconvolution (FSD) where the emission fluorescence spectrum of a sample is considered as a linear combination of emission spectra, named reference spectra. The combination of the reference spectra allows the restitution of the shape of the emission spectrum of any unknown sample. This approach was applied to follow EE2 adsorption onto four soil samples and is an easy and low cost alternative.Adsorption experimental data showed a good fit with the Hill equation, mathematically equivalent to the Langmuir-Freundlich model assuming that the adsorption is a cooperative process influenced by adsorbate-adsorbate interactions. Molecular modelling studies clearly support the “co-operative adsorption” model, showing that after the adsorption of the first layer of EE2 molecules onto the soil, at least one more layer of EE2 is adsorbed, due to interactions established with the first adsorbed layer. Notwithstanding, packing a third row would imply interactions between two EE2 molecules that differ from the ones verified in the lowest energy structure, which also explains the plateau achieved in the adsorption curve.     

Dealing with microtopography of an ombrotrophic bog for simulating ecosystem-level CO2 exchanges

Peatlands contain approximately 25% of the global soil carbon (C), despite covering only 3% of the earth's land surface. In order to evaluate the role of peatlands in global C cycling, models of ecosystem biogeochemistry are required, but peatland ecosystems present a number of unique challenges, particularly how to deal with the large variability that occurs at scales of one to several metres. In models, spatial variability is considered either explicitly for each individual unit and the outputs averaged, referred to as flux upscaling, or implicitly by weighting model parameters by the fractional occurrence of the individual units, referred to as parameter upscaling. The advantage of parameter upscaling is that it is much more computationally efficient: a requirement for hemispheric scale simulations. In this study we determined the differences between modelling a raised bog peatland with hummock-hollow microtopography using flux and parameter upscaling. We used the McGill Wetland Model (MWM), a process-based ecosystem C model for peatlands, configured for hummocks and hollows separately and then a weighted mixture of both. The simulated output based on flux and parameter upscaling was compared with eddy-covariance tower measurements. We found that net ecosystem production (NEP) for hollows was much larger than that for hummocks because total ecosystem respiration (TER) for hummocks was greater while gross primary production (GPP) did not differ significantly between the two topographic features. However, despite differences in components of NEP between hummocks and hollows, there was no statistically significant difference between the NEP based on flux and parameter upscaling using the MWM. Both flux and parameter upscaling show equivalent capability to capture the magnitude, direction, seasonality and inter-annual variability. The root-mean-square-errors (RMSE) are 0.66, 0.45, and 0.49 g C m⁻² day⁻¹, respectively for GPP, TER and NEP based on the flux upscaling, while 0.67, 0.44, and 0.48 g C m⁻² day⁻¹, respectively based on the parameter upscaling. The degree of agreement (d*) is 0.96, 0.97, and 0.88, respectively for GPP, TER and NEP based on the flux upscaling, while 0.96, 0.97, and 0.89, respectively based on the parameter upscaling. This result suggests that differences in processes caused by peatland microtopography scale linearly, which means an ecosystem-level model set-up (i.e. parameter upscaling scheme), is sufficient to simulate the C cycling.     

Dissecting the drivers of population cycles: Interactions between parasites and mountain hare demography

There is a growing awareness that cyclic population dynamics in vertebrate species are driven by a complex set of interactions rather than a single causal factor. While theory suggests that direct host-parasite interactions may destabilise population dynamics, the interaction between host and parasite may also influence population dynamics through indirect effects that result in delayed responses to either density or to life-history traits. Using empirical data on mountain hares (Lepus timidus) infected with a nematode parasite (Trichostrongylus retortaeformis), we developed an individual-based model (IBM) that incorporated direct effects and delayed life-history effects (DLHEs) of a macroparasite, alternative transmission mechanisms and seasonality in host population dynamics. The full model describes mean characteristics of observed mountain hare time series and parasite abundance, but by systematically removing model structure we dissect out dynamic influences of DLHEs. The DLHEs were weakly destabilising, increasing the propensity for cyclic dynamics and suggesting DLHEs could be important processes in host-parasite systems. Further, by modifying model structure we identify a strong influence of parasite transmission mechanism on host population stability, and discuss the implications for parasite aggregation mechanisms, host movement and natural geographical variation in host population dynamics. The effect of T. retortaeformis on mountain hares likely forms part of a complex set of interactions that lead to population cycles.     

3D model for a secondary facultative pond

This paper describes a comprehensive model of wastewater treatment in secondary facultative ponds, which combines 3D hydrodynamics with a mechanistic water quality model. The hydrodynamics are based on the Navier-Stokes equation for incompressible fluids under shallow water and Boussinesq assumptions capturing the flow dynamics along length, breadth and depth of the pond. The water quality sub model is based on the Activated Sludge Model (ASM) concept, describing COD and nutrient removal as function of bacterial growth following Monod kinetics, except for Escherichia coli removal, which was modelled as first order decay. The model was implemented in the Delft3D software and was used to evaluate the effect of wind and the addition of baffles on the water flow pattern, temperature profiles in the pond and treatment efficiency. In contrast to earlier models reported in the literature, our simulation results did not show any significant improvement in COD removal (based on the ASM concept) with addition of baffles or under intermittent wind-induced mixing. However, E. coli removal efficiency, based on a first order decay approach, showed a fair improvement in the presence of baffles or intermittent wind-induced mixing. Furthermore, simulations with continuous wind effect showed a decrease in removal efficiency for COD but a further increase in E. coli removal efficiency. Such contrasting results for two different approaches in modelling could indicate that the first order decay concept might not be appropriate to describe all the interactions between biochemical processes in a pond. However, these interpretations remain theoretical, as the model needs validation with field data.     

Mapping socio-economic scenarios of land cover change: a GIS method to enable ecosystem service modelling

We present a GIS method to interpret qualitatively expressed socio-economic scenarios in quantitative map-based terms. (i) We built scenarios using local stakeholders and experts to define how major land cover classes may change under different sets of drivers; (ii) we formalized these as spatially explicit rules, for example agriculture can only occur on certain soil types; (iii) we created a future land cover map which can then be used to model ecosystem services. We illustrate this for carbon storage in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania using two scenarios: the first based on sustainable development, the second based on 'business as usual' with continued forest-woodland degradation and poor protection of existing forest reserves. Between 2000 and 2025 4% of carbon stocks were lost under the first scenario compared to a loss of 41% of carbon stocks under the second scenario. Quantifying the impacts of differing future scenarios using the method we document here will be important if payments for ecosystem services are to be used to change policy in order to maintain critical ecosystem services.