港湾快速城市化地区河流水质主控因子识别及调控方案

识别快速城市化地区的河流污染的主控因子,对于科学实施河流污染防治调控及实现区域经济又好又快发展具有积极意义。运用流量校准浓度分析法、多元逐步回归分析相结合的方法识别连云港港湾快速城市化地区影响水质变化的主控因子,可准确把握该类区域河流污染趋势及主导原因,进而提出相应的优选调控方案。     

The effects of different predator species on antipredator behavior in the Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata

Different types of predators often elicit different antipredator responses in a common type of prey. Alternatively, some prey species may adopt a general response, which provides limited protection from many different types of predator. The Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata, is faced with a wide range of different predators throughout its range and is known to display varying levels of antipredator behavior depending on the predator assemblage. Pike cichlids, Crenicichla frenata, are regarded as the primary aquatic guppy predator in streams in the northern mountain range in Trinidad. As such, they are seen to be responsible for many of the differences in morphology, life history traits, and behavior between guppy populations from areas with few predators and those from areas with many pike cichlids. In this study we investigated how guppies responded when faced with different predator species using three common aquatic predators. We exposed shoals of ten guppies to one out of four treatments: no predator (control), pike cichlid, acara cichlid (Aequidens pulcher), and wolf fish (Hoplias malabaricus); and we made behavioral observations on both focal individuals and the shoal as a whole. Guppies showed significantly greater levels of predator inspection and shoaling behavior, foraged less, spent more time in the surface water, and stayed in significantly larger shoals when faced with pike cichlids than in other treatments. We discuss these results in the context of multiple predator effects.     

A composite receptor and dispersion model approach for estimation of effective emission factors for vehicles

It is difficult to estimate vehicular emission factors at traffic junctions for use in dispersion modelling studies. Firstly, because the vehicles are in various modes of operation and secondly, it is difficult to delineate the effects of other contributing sources, mainly the effects of road dust and deposited constituents, which are very prominent at traffic junctions in India. Factor analysis-multiple regression (FA-MR), a receptor modelling technique has been used in this study for apportioning the contributing sources. The measurement data consist of one year's temporal variation of suspended particulate matter (SPM), analysed for its trace metal constituents, and two gaseous components NO₂ and SO₂ at two traffic junctions in Mumbai (India). FA-MR apportioned 40% of the observed SPM to road dust and 15% to vehicular sources. Of the total Pb observed in the SPM, FA-MR apportioned 60% to vehicular sources and 20% to road dust. The field-observed vehicular counts, meteorological parameters and road geometry were used in California line source dispersion model to estimate the effective vehicular emission factor for Pb at one traffic junction. This derived emission factor was used to predict the Pb concentration at second (independent observation) traffic junction. The result was found to be more satisfactory than using default emission factors obtained from literature. Similarly, effective vehicular emission factor for NO₂ was also evaluated for one site and tested for predicting concentrations at the other site.     

Evaluating the management strategies of a forestland estate--the S-O-S approach

Connecting Multiple Criteria Decision Support (MCDS) methods with SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis yields analytical priorities for the factors included in SWOT analysis and makes them commensurable. In addition, decision alternatives can be evaluated with respect to each SWOT factor. In this way, SWOT analysis provides the basic frame within which to perform analyses of decision situations. MCDS methods, in turn, assist in carrying out SWOT more analytically and in elaborating the results of the analyses so that alternative strategic decisions can be prioritized also with respect to the entire SWOT. The A'WOT analysis is an example of such hybrid methods. It makes combined use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and SWOT. In this study, a hybrid method of the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis with Ordinal criteria (SMAA-O) and SWOT is developed as an elaboration of the basic ideas of A'WOT. The method is called S-O-S (SMAA-O in SWOT). SMAA-O enables the handling of ordinal preference information as well as mixed data consisting of both ordinal and cardinal information. Using SMAA-O is enough to just rank decision elements instead of giving them cardinal preference or priority ratios as required by the most commonly used MCDS methods. Using SMAA-O, in addition to analyzing what the recommended action is under certain priorities of the criteria, enables one to analyze what kind of preferences would support each action. The S-O-S approach is illustrated by a case study, where the shareholders of a forest holding owned by a private partnership prepared the SWOT analysis. Six alternative strategies for the management of their forest holding and of old cottage located on the holding were formed. After S-O-S analyses were carried out, one alternative was found to be the most recommendable. However, different importance orders of the SWOT groups would lead to different recommendations, since three of the six alternatives were efficient according to S-O-S analyses.     

GIS and multiple-criteria evaluation for the optimisation of tsetse fly eradication programmes

Tsetse flies are the vectors of trypanosomes, the causal agent of trypanosomiasis, a widespread disease of livestock and people in Africa. Control of tsetse may open vast areas of land to livestock-keeping, with the associated benefits of developing mixed crop-livestock production systems. However, as well as possible positive impacts there are also risks: bush clearing would accelerate and cattle numbers would rise, leading to a reduction of vegetation cover, and an increase in runoff and erosion; there may also be increased pressure on conserved areas and reductions in biodiversity. The objective of this study is to show how remotely sensed and other environmental data can be combined in a decision support system to help inform tsetse control programmes in a manner that could be used to limit possible detrimental effects of tsetse control. For Zambia, a methodology is developed that combines a tree-based decision-support approach with the use of Multiple-Criteria Evaluation (MCE), within a Geographical Information System (GIS), in order to target areas for tsetse control. The results show clear differentiation of priority areas under a series of hypothetical scenarios, and some areas (e.g. northwest of Petauke in the Eastern Province of Zambia) are consistently flagged as high priority for control. It is also demonstrated that priority areas do not comprise isolated tsetse populations, meaning that disease control using an integrated approach is likely to be more economically viable than local eradication.     

Applying a Large,Statewide Database to the Assessment,Stressor Diagnosis,and Restoration of Stream Fish Communities

In this report, predictions of the species that were expected to occur at stream sites were generated and probable stressors to fish species that were predicted to occur but were absent were diagnosed. Predictions were generated based on the hierarchical screening method of Smith and Powell (1971, Am. Mus. Novit. 2458, 1–30), using fish abundance in conjunction with 25 environmental variables at 895 sites. The sites were sampled throughout Maryland and represent the entire range of environmental quality from severely degraded to minimally degraded. Stressor variable values that exceeded tolerance thresholds for species that were expected to occur, but were absent, were considered to be probable stressors. This method was tested for efficacy in stream site assessments and stressor diagnosis using an independent data set. Sites that were classified as degraded according to the IBI and to non-biological criteria had fewer predicted species present compared to minimally influenced sites, indicating that the proportion of predicted species present accurately represents the biological integrity of a stream site. The nine stressors that were applied to the test data set accounted for species absences in 43.7% of degraded sites. Impervious land cover was the most common stressor identified. In addition to assessing stream biological integrity and identifying stressors to fish species, this approach also provides tolerance thresholds for predicted fish species that are useful endpoints necessary to plan effective restoration of fish species in Maryland.     

Female control of reproductive skew in cooperatively breeding brown jays (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyanocorax morio</Emphasis>)

Brown jays (Cyanocorax morio) are long-lived, social corvids that live in large, stable, territorial groups (mean = 10 individuals). In this study, I determined the distribution of reproductive success within groups using multi-locus DNA fingerprinting. Breeding females produced virtually all (99%) of the young within their own nests. Reproduction within groups was highly skewed towards a single primary female, although long term data indicate that secondary females (female breeders that were usually younger and subordinate to the primary female) were sometimes successful. The high reproductive skew observed for females was associated with primary female aggression. Successful reproduction by secondary females may have been due to parental facilitation or the inability of primary females to completely suppress secondary females. Multiple paternity occurred in 31–43% of broods and extra-group paternity occurred in a minimum of 22% of broods. Patterns of paternity also varied between years, since females often switched or included new genetic mates. Although male consorts of nesting females fathered relatively few offspring (20%), they still had a higher chance of fathering offspring than any other single group male. Reproduction was less skewed for males than females as a result of female mating patterns. Female reproductive patterns are consistent with some of the predictions and assumptions from optimal skew models, while male reproductive patterns are not. The factors affecting skew in species with complex social systems such as incomplete control by breeders over subordinate reproduction, female control of paternity, and resource inheritance have not been well incorporated into reproductive skew models.Communicated by: J. Dickinson