Characterizing Spatial Uncertainty when Integrating Social Data in Conservation Planning

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches.     

甲烷水合物分解的Raman、NMR光谱原位检测

从水合物分解热力学、分解动力学和分解机理几个方面对甲烷水合物拉曼和核磁共振光谱分析的最新进展进行了综述.分解热力学方面介绍了基于拉曼和核磁共振光谱技术的水合物分解条件的原位观测;分解动力学方面主要介绍了水合物分解速率的拉曼光谱原位检测及基于检测结果构建的分解模型;水合物微观分解机理方面着重介绍了水合物分解在分子水平上是由两步构成的及分解过程中大、小孔穴保持着相同的分解速率.针对目前拉曼和核磁共振光谱法研究水合物存在的问题,对未来的发展方向和重点提出了建议.     

Reliability data acquisition and evaluation in process plants

Based on the practical experience of assessing reliability data in two plants of the explosives industry, the organization and scope of the data collection, the component delimitation, the procedures of quality assurance and the data evaluation for their final use in PSA studies are presented. An example is given for the type of detection and repair, etc. The mathematical background for evaluating observed component lifetimes is discussed. Both frequentist and Bayesian methods are addressed. The resulting failure rate distributions and their approximations by log-normal distributions for several key components are presented. They were obtained using a Bayesian approach with a non-informative prior. Remarks on uncertainty, their treatment and a proposal for transferring data to plants other than the ones investigated conclude the presentation.     

水质远程监控通讯安全性问题的探讨——利用现有网络条件确保远程监控通讯安全性的解决方案

针对我国总体水质情况不容乐观的现实 ,提出解决办法之一是对排污口实施大规模远程监控 ,而远程通讯的安全性又是最直接、最核心的问题。文章着重阐述了如何解决在现有网络条件下实时运行的网络运行速度和数据的加解密等具体问题。     

人工神经网络模型在石油资源预测中的应用

锦270井区大凌河油层是盆地大幅度沉降条件下的产物，以深陷湖环境为主，发育湖底扇浊积岩。准确预测大凌河油层的砂体分布和泥质含量，是勘探目标选择的关键。由于钻井资料少，不能反映储层横向变化。为了准确预测储层的横向变化，综合钻井地质资料和地震勘探资料，并为了反映地震资料的多个参数与储层横向变化间的非线性相关关系，采用人工神经网络模型进行预测，计算了大凌河油层砂层厚度和泥质含量的平面分布。依据计算结果，分析了有利油气区的分布，并给出了几点结论。     

面向Web的环境信息系统设计与实现

从开发的角度阐述了解决降低环境空间数据采集成本、提高环境信息的共享程度和范围的最佳途径，即通过建立面向Web的环境信息系统（Web-EIS），使不同部门、不同地区、不同领域之间直接进行信息共享和综合应用。对Web-EIS的构架、设计和实现方法进行了详细的分析，并以利用Java编程语言的方法开发出面向Web的武汉市城市环境地理信息系统为例介绍了其功能特点，很好地实现了Web-EIS。     

Emission inventory on company level: lessons from Russia

Developing a transparent,accurate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissionsinventory is the first step toward buildingan effective GHG management system. Todate, GHG inventories have been conductedprimarily at national levels. Theinternationally accepted inventorymethodology developed by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) is oriented to countrywideinventories. The electricity company RAOUESR is the largest single corporateemitter of GHG in the Russian Federation. The company is responsible for about 1/3 ofRussia's CO₂ emissions; RAO's fossil fuelemissions are comparable to the fossil fuelemissions of the United Kingdom. The GHGinventory prepared by RAO is the first suchcorporate emissions inventory undertaken ina non-OECD country. In this article wepresent a detailed independent examinationof the methodology RAO applied for theinventory. We identify the most importantsources of uncertainty and we estimate theuncertainty. The main conclusion of theindependent review is that the methodologyutilized by RAO and the informationsupporting the methodology are reliable andpresent a reasonably accurate company-widepicture of RAO's CO₂ emissions. The shareof other greenhouse gases is negligiblysmall and we did not focus on this fractionof RAO's GHG emissions. As a next step, RAOmay wish to conduct more precisefacility-by-facility inventories in orderto create a robust GHG emission managementsystem.     

环境规制效果与中国城市空气污染

中国不同城市的空气污染现状与年际变化存在巨大的差异,但总体而言正在经历着明显的改善。城市空气污染是政府环境规制效果的体现,论文从影响环境规制的多种途径和渠道出发,将影响政府环境规制执行效果的原因分为三种因素,包括来自企业等利益攸关者的环境规制执行阻力、来自社会的空气污染改善受益方的环境规制执行压力和政府本身的环境规制执行能力。论文着重阐述了这三种动力内容,并利用空气污染指数(API)数据制作非平衡面板模型,对这三种动力因素与规制执行效果的关系进行了验证,发现环境规制执行阻力和环境规制执行能力显著地影响规制执行效果。教育等社会因素通过提升环境规制压力也能够对环境规制执行进行一定的推动。     

结合QAR数据的全航段排放估算及其对飞行成本的影响研究

随着排放对环境的影响日趋严重,排放成本被纳入飞行总成本的趋势已成为必然.在对基础飞行成本模型进行改进过程中,为了准确计算飞机排放量,依据机载QAR（Quick Access Recorder,快速存取记录器）数据中表征发动机实际运行的诸多参数,准确获取排放量,进而利用改进飞行总成本模型计算实际飞行成本.同时,讨论了燃油成本、时间成本及排放成本在综合成本中所占的比例.结果表明,燃油成本占比最大,约为41.63%;时间成本约占34.13%,排放成本占比达到24.24%,超过燃油成本的1/2.由此可见,排放成本对总成本影响很大,其影响不可忽视,多方面考虑计算排放量及排放成本,可为航空公司初步评估飞机运行成本提供有效依据.     

天津市污染源在线监测数据管理系统的设计与功能分析

近些年我国大力开展了国控重点污染源自动监控网络建设,目前全国已对7 600多家国控重点污染源安装了在线监测设备,并实现了与各级环境监管部门的数据实时传输。基于我国现有监控平台的功能及存在的问题,介绍并分析了天津市污染源在线监测数据管理系统的建设目标、结构设计、功能、作用和特点,对污染减排及自动监控管理工作具有重要的指导意义。