非时序加权灰色关联分析在环境质量综合评价中的应用

本文根据灰色关联分析的基本性质，提出一种环境质量综合评价的新方法。该方法用待评价样本各指标值组成参考数列，环境质量分级标准值组成被比较数列，通过计算参考数列与被比较数列的关联度，按最优关联识别原则综合评价环境质量等级。用４个实例与其它方法进行了对比，取得满意的效果。     

用事故树分析法进行炼厂油罐爆炸事故的环境风险评价

论述了风险、风险评价、环境风险评价的概念及其主要内容，说明利用事故树分析法进行工程环境风险评价的程序和方法。并运用这种方法对某炼厂油罐爆炸事故进行了大气环境风险评价。     

Development of a Methodology for Selecting Criteria and Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management: A Case Study on Participatory Assessment

This paper describes an application of multiple criteria analysis (MCA) in assessing criteria and indicators adapted for a particular forest management unit. The methods include: ranking, rating, and pairwise comparisons. These methods were used in a participatory decision-making environment where a team representing various stakeholders and professionals used their expert opinions and judgements in assessing different criteria and indicators (C&I) on the one hand, and how suitable and applicable they are to a forest management unit on the other. A forest concession located in Kalimantan, Indonesia, was used as the site for the case study. Results from the study show that the multicriteria methods are effective tools that can be used as structured decision aids to evaluate, prioritize, and select sets of C&I for a particular forest management unit. Ranking and rating approaches can be used as a screening tool to develop an initial list of C&I. Pairwise comparison, on the other hand, can be used as a finer filter to further reduce the list. In addition to using these three MCA methods, the study also examines two commonly used group decision-making techniques, the Delphi method and the nominal group technique. Feedback received from the participants indicates that the methods are transparent, easy to implement, and provide a convenient environment for participatory decision-making.     

Using Decision Analysis to Choose Phosphorus Targets for Lake Erie

Lake Erie water quality has improved dramatically since the degraded conditions of the 1960s. Additional gains could be made, but at the expense of further investment and reductions in fishery productivity. In facing such cross-jurisdictional issues, natural resource managers in Canada and the United States must grapple with conflicting objectives and important uncertainties, while considering the priorities of the public that live in the basin. The techniques and tools of decision analysis have been used successfully to deal with such decision problems in a range of environmental settings, but infrequently in the Great Lakes. The objective of this paper is to illustrate how such techniques might be brought to bear on an important, real decision currently facing Lake Erie resource managers and stakeholders: the choice of new phosphorus loading targets for the lake. The heart of our approach is a systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences and an investigation of the degree to which different phosphorus-loading policies might satisfy ecosystem objectives. Results show that there are potential benefits to changing the historical policy of reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie.     

Methodological Development of an Index of Coastal Water Quality: Application in a Tourist Area

With the aim of obtaining an index of coastal water quality, a methodological procedure based on numerical classification and discriminant analysis is presented. The procedure was applied to nutrient data (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate) analyzed along the coastal waters of a Spanish tourist area. Using numerical classification, three levels of nutrient loading were revealed, characterizing oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and potentially eutrophic waters. Discriminant analysis was shown to be an effective methodological tool in the discrimination between trophic groups. For every group, the discriminant procedure generated the centroids. The centroids representing oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic conditions were used to establish the two extremes of the continuum of mesotrophic conditions in these coastal waters: Standardizing values from -1 to 1, the centroids for oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic waters yielded an interval that defined the range of mesotrophic conditions. This interval is proposed as a water quality index. The ability of the coastal water quality index to successfully predict mesotrophic conditions was proved with random samples.     

ECOLOGICAL MODELS AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES1

The recent world-wide trend towards centralization of all environmental management functions into one regulatory agency has illustrated the necessity for resources management agencies to adopt a total systems viewpoint. Environmental systems are typically complex and multi-dimensional in nature. Mathematical models for the management of air, water and land resources have found wide acceptance among planners and decision-makers. Ecological models of life processes have not reached the same state of development or acceptance. A general review of ecological systems theory and examples of the types of ecological models that have been developed to date arc presented in this paper. With this material as a background and given the vast literature on engineering and economic models, a conceptual framework for an approach to environmental studies and the analysis of polluted environmental systems is presented.     

Optimization of the high-pressure, near-critical liquid-based microsortation of recyclable post-consumer plastics

High-pressure, near-critical liquids were used as float-sink separation media for the microsortation of polyolefin mixtures and PET/PVC mixtures. Near-critical carbon dioxide was used for the refinement of the polyolefins, and sulfur hexafluoride was used to separate post-consumer PVC from PET. Preliminary experiments indicated that there was no overlap in the density ranges of post-consumer HDPE, LDPE and PP containers. There was no overlap in the PET and PVC densities, with the exception of a single PVC packaging material with a density in the PET range. These initial results indicated that a float-sink separation was a viable means of microsortation. Separations of 91% LDPE (1/8′ beads)/9% PP (1/8′ chopped strands) resin mixtures and mixed post-consumer polyolefin flakes were then conducted in a laboratory-scale, 1-I batch apparatus. This apparatus not only permitted the observation of the separation, but also enabled the separated fractions to be removed from the high-pressure environment. The results indicated that LDPE purity of greater than 98.9% was obtained in 3 min or less if (a) the fluid density was 0.018 g/cm³ greater than the PP density and only 0.002 g/cm³ less than the LDPE density, thereby providing the greatest buoyancy force for the removal of the PP, (b) the fluid was recirculated upward through the bed of mixed plastics, facilitating the upward movement of the PP, and (c) the loading was kept at levels below 40% by volume. HDPE purity of 99% was also attained with clean, dry, post-consumer mixed plastic flakes. The loadings for these separations were very low, however, due to the difficulty in agitating the mixed bed of plastics using fluid recirculation. An economic analysis of these microsortation processes indicated that the value of the sorted plastics relative to the mixed feed must increase by approx. $0.08/lb for the CO₂-based separation and approx. $0.27/lb for the SF₆-based separation to justify the implementation of these high-pressure processes.     

Predicting mass rapid transit noise levels on an elevated station

This study developed a noise prediction model for elevated mass rapid transit (MRT) platforms. Relevant physical and operational parameters (e.g. cruise speed, acceleration and deceleration rates for trains, building fa?ade setbacks and so on) were collected from the Bangkok mass transit system (BTS), the first elevated MRT system operated in Bangkok, Thailand. The equivalent continuous sound pressure levels (L(Aeq)) were collected from both sides of the MRT stations at the center of each platform. The relevant parameters were collected on both platforms and ground level, on both sides of MRT stations. These parameters were statistically tested to determine their correlation with MRT noise. The final model was built from highly correlated parameters using multiple regression analysis with a stepwise regression technique. Statistical evaluation showed a high degree of goodness-of-fit test for the model to the observed data. Therefore, it can be efficiently used for the projection of MRT noise in the affected areas.     

耕地土壤中交换态钙镁铁锰铜锌相关关系研究

应用主成份分析、聚类分析和相关性分析对沈阳市郊区1994个耕地土壤样本(0-20cm)的交换态钙、镁、铁、锰、铜、锌含量进行研究，结果表明，影响钙与镁、铁与锰、铜与锌分布的主因子分别在相同的主成份组中，钙与镁、铁与锰、铜与锌之间的相关系数较大，铁、锰、铜、锌之间均为极显著正相关关系，钙与铁、锰、铜、锌均为负相关关系，说明元素的生物地球化学属性对其地理分布有较大的影响。     

Analysis of heavy metal distribution in superficial estuarine sediments (estuary of Bilbao, Basque Country) by open-focused microwave-assisted extraction and ICP-OES

Open-focused microwave-assisted extraction and ICP-OES determination of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn from surface sediments of the estuary of Bilbao (Basque Country, North of Spain) was carried out. All the samples were collected at three different tributaries of the estuary (Asua, Galindo and Nerbioi-Ibaizabal) every two months during 1999. The digestion procedure was proposed from the conclusions of a fractionated factorial design, and the precision and accuracy of the method was verified using a certified reference sediment (RTC008-050). The results of the analysis were statistically treated by means of principal component analysis and correlation analysis. The principal component analysis of sediment data (32 samples × 9 metals) indicated different patterns of contamination regarding the tributary and sampling station. The two main patterns observed were a steady increment of the metal concentration along all the campaigns in the samples collected in the Galindo River and a seasonal variation in the Nerbioi-Ibaizabal River, with higher metallic content during summertime and lower content during wintertime.