Learning to Network and Networking to Learn: Facilitating the Process of Adaptive Managementin a Local Response to the UK's National AirQuality Strategy

The adaptive management leitmotiv of “learning to manage and managing to learn” sets out an attractive agenda for dealing with the overwhelming complexity of environmental phenomena that humans have problematized. To ensure that this rallying cry translates into effective action, it is important to give consideration to structures and procedures for facilitating the efforts of those willing or able to respond to the adaptive management call. To date, calls to establish the right organization to coordinate multiagency responses have tended to emphasize the noun, or bounded-entity, sense of the word organization. We believe that this is at the expense of its other, verb or process, connotation. In this paper, rather than searching for the perfect organization structure that mandates mutual trust and collective action shaped by all relevant parties' perspectives and possible contributions, we direct attention towards the process of nurturing integrated adaptive responses among individuals who have diverse organizational allegiances. By shifting the balance towards the process connotation of the right organization, we hope that a new mindscape can be discerned for those interested in putting adaptive management principles into practice. We seek to conjure up an image of this mindscape through the phrase “learning to network and networking to learn,” and set out to strengthen this by demonstrating how adaptive response networks can arise from the mutually defining relationship between stakeholders and issues. This is demonstrated through a local response to the United Kingdom's National Air Quality Strategy.     

农业气象灾害分析网络服务系统

以大量翔实的农业气象灾害资料为基础,结合实时农业气象灾情分析,在ｗｉｎｄｏｗｓＮＴＳｅｒｖｅｒ网络环境下,研制出具有网络功能的农业气象灾害分析服务系统,系统在Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ的ＮｅｔｓｃａｐｅＮａｖｉｇａｔｏｒ或Ｅｘｐｌｏｒｅｒｔｏ览器下运行,简便实用．系统以灾害服务为宗旨,体现了信息量大、服务迅速的特点。内容包括农业气象灾害类型库、逐年农业气象灾害评判库、实时农业气象灾害分析及灾情服务流程．     

多部门环境监测科学数据共享体系探讨

本文通过分析“淮河流域环境与健康监测网”获取的环境监测科学数据特征,并结合我国环境监测科学数据共享的现状和存在的问题,根据环境监测科学数据的5个基本要素,对构建面向社会公众、面向科学研究的多部门环境监测科学数据共享体系进行了探索研究.     

当前城市空气污染预报方法存在的问题及新思路

论述了当前国内外城市空气污染预报的主要方法以及存在的问题,探讨了一个基于贝叶斯网络的城市空气污染预报的新思路,并对其技术路线和关键问题等进行了初步探讨。新方法可以在一定程度上克服了现有方法理论上的缺陷和应用上的困难,而且具有更大的灵活性、现实性和可操作性,对于我国中小城市开展空气污染预报具有较好的应用前景。     

Design of Mass Exchange Network and Effluent Distribution System for effective water management

The environmental impact of industrial wastewater and higher cost of fresh water are the serious challenges faced by the process industries. It has led to the development of many new techniques to minimize fresh water consumption. Of the many approaches, which have been developed, the Water Source Diagram (WSD) is a flexible and dynamic alternative for the generation of different scenarios for the management of water networks with reduction in total consumption. In the present study WSD concept was coupled with water mains concept to mains simplify the piping network and reduce the cost. A new procedure was developed for integrating the effluent treatment processes to evolve Effluent Treatment Network. Example from literature having multi contaminants was considered. This simple procedure involving hand calculations will be a useful tool for process engineers to design water and effluent treatment networks. Also the WSD and ETN were combined to form an evolutionary WAMEN (Water Allocation and Mass Exchange Network) and the proposed WAMEN aims for minimum fresh water consumption.     

神经网络模型用于数值水质模型逼近的适用性及非敏感参数的欺骗效应

水质模型被广泛应用于水环境管理和决策,但却面临着计算时间和模型应用效率等多方面的问题;利用函数映射和逼近等方法来建立水质模型的输入-输出响应关系,可有效减少计算成本并显著改善模型效率.水质模型的输入-输出响应函数关系有多种形式,本文以其中的2种为例,并分别基于2个水质模型(零维总磷模型、WASP/EUTRO5)的案例,分析和验证了神经网络模型在响应关系逼近中的适用性.案例的结果表明:神经网络函数可以有效地用于水质模型输入-输出响应关系的逼近;当网络规模超出阈值大小时,神经网络函数逼近的准确度和泛化度对网络规模不敏感.在案例研究的基础上,推导和讨论了在神经网络模型函数映射过程中所可能出现的非敏感参数的欺骗效应,以及可能由此导致的过度预测或过低预测问题;并建议在神经网络函数逼近中,应只包含水质模型的敏感参数,以防止降低神经网络模型的准确度.     

基于故障树的生物质气化中毒事故BN-LOPA分析

为降低生物质气化中毒事故的概率,本文提出基于故障树的贝叶斯—保护层复合分析法(BN-LOPA),对生物质气化中毒事故进行风险分析。以辽宁省某气化站为例,通过贝叶斯网络计算出该气化站中毒事故发生概率为1.11×10^-4,基于贝叶斯网络推导出中毒事故基本事件的后验概率,得到导致事故发生的故障节点,并对其设置独立防护层,经推导计算,该气化站的气化中毒事故发生概率可降低至5.35×10^-6,风险等级从7级降至5级。结果表明:该气化站增加独立防护层后,符合安全生产的要求。