河湖水系连通研究:概念框架

河湖水系连通已经成为国家江河治理的重大需求,提高国家水资源统筹调配能力、改善河湖健康保障能力、增强抵御水旱灾害能力迫切需要加强河湖水系连通研究,但相关的理论和技术尚处于探索阶段,远远落后于实践。论文根据新形势下保障国家水安全和提高生态文明水平的新要求,讨论了河湖水系连通的概念及内涵,并讨论了河湖水系连通的系统性、复杂性、动态性和时空性等特征,在综合考虑河湖水系连通目标和任务的基础上,提出河湖水系连通战略研究可从机理分析、系统辨识与评价、连通工程规划、系统控制与调整4个方面展开,明确了研究的总体思路,对尺度、过程、格局、功能与控制等研究的基本问题进行了初步讨论。     

Ranking individual habitat patches as connectivity providers: Integrating network analysis and patch removal experiments

Here we propose an integrated framework for modeling connectivity that can help ecologists, conservation planners and managers to identify patches that, more than others, contribute to uphold species dispersal and other ecological flows in a landscape context. We elaborate, extend and partly integrate recent network-based approaches for modeling and supporting the management of fragmented landscapes. In doing so, experimental patch removal techniques and network analytical approaches are merged into one integrated modeling framework for assessing the role of individual patches as connectivity providers. In particular, we focus the analyses on the habitat availability metrics PC and IIC and on the network metric Betweenness Centrality. The combination and extension of these metrics jointly assess both the immediate connectivity impacts of the loss of a particular patch and the resulting increased vulnerability of the network to subsequent disruptions. In using the framework to analyze the connectivity of two real landscapes in Madagascar and Catalonia (NE Spain), we suggest a procedure that can be used to rank individual habitat patches and show that the combined metrics reveal relevant and non-redundant information valuable to assert and quantify distinctive connectivity aspects of any given patch in the landscape. Hence, we argue that the proposed framework could facilitate more ecologically informed decision-making in managing fragmented landscapes. Finally, we discuss and highlight some of the advantages, limitations and key differences between the considered metrics.     

Total phosphorus concentrations in surface water of typical agro- and forest ecosystems in China, 2004–2010

The concentrations of total phosphorus （TP） from 83 surface water sampling sites in 29 of the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network （CERN） monitored ecosystems, representing typical agro- and forest ecosystems, were assessed using monitoring data collected between 2004 and 2010 from still and flowing surface water. Results showed that, TP concentrations were significantly higher in agro-ecosystems than those in forest ecosystems both for still and flowing surface water. For agro- ecosystems, TP concentrations in the southern area were significantly higher than those in the northern and north- western areas for both still and flowing surface water, however no distinct spatial pattern was observed for forest ecosystems. In general, the median values of TP within agro- and forest ecosystems did not exceed the Class V guideline for still （0.2mg.L-1） or flowing （0.4mg.L-1） surface water, however, surface water at some agro- ecosystem sampling sites was frequently polluted by TE Elevated concentrations were mainly found in still surface water at the Changshu, Fukang, Linze and Naiman monitored ecosystems, where exceedance （〉 0.2 mg.L-1） frequencies varied from 43% to 78%. For flowing water, elevated TP concentrations were found at the Hailun, Changshu and Shapotou monitored ecosystems, where exceedance （〉 0.4 mg. L-1） frequencies varied from 29% to 100%. Irrational fertilization, frequent irrigation and livestock manure input might be the main contributors of high TP concentrations in these areas, and reduced fertilizer applications, improvements in irrigation practices and centralized treatment of animal waste are necessary to control P loss in these TP vulnerable zones.     

基于改进贝叶斯网络的加油站火灾爆炸分析

为了找出导致加油站发生火灾爆炸事故的基本事件及其可能性大小,以加油站火灾爆炸故障树为基础建立相应的贝叶斯网络风险模型。在FTA向BN转化算法的基础上对条件概率做出了修正。利用GeNIe软件计算加油站火灾爆炸事故基事件的后验概率,同时进行灵敏度和影响力分析。最后通过实例分析,找出了导致某加油站发生火灾爆炸事故危险性最大的因素集为:加油站接打手机、机械碰撞、给塑料容器加油、加油冒油、油枪渗漏等。结果表明,注重基事件的多态性和事件间逻辑关系合理性的新模型,能推算出更准确的基事件概率分布,同时可以找出导致事故发生的最有可能途径,为加油站事故预防,系统改进提供较为合理性建议。     

Monitoring of Aquatic Macrophytes for Detection of Long-term Change in River Systems

This paper presents details of the methodology developed by the United Kingdom's Environmental Change Network for the long-term monitoring of macrophytes in rivers and streams. The methodology is based on techniques first proposed by the Standing Committee of Analysts (1987) and later adapted by the National Rivers Authority (NRA) and Environment Agency, but differs in splitting the surveyed 100 m stretch of waterinto sections to provide an objective measure of the frequencyof occurrence of individual species in place of the moresubjective estimation of cover. A pilot study of the ECN methodology took place at five sitesin 1997. The results of this study, including a few practicaldifficulties in the application of the methodology, are presented and discussed. For all but one of the sites strongassociations were found between the number of species observedand the physical characteristics of the watercourse. The most important characteristics were degree of shading, substrate type, depth and clarity. The frequency of occurrence of individual species within sections of the watercourse was foundto be strongly related to the log of the overall estimates of cover. Because the use of sections, rather than a single overall coverestimate, enables variation in the pattern of vegetation over surveyed stretches to be detected and related to watercourse characteristics, the precision with which change can be detected is increased, and the possibility of determining the causes of change is thereby enhanced. Moreover the use of sections allows within-site variation to be calculated and hence the accuracy of estimated changes to be quantified.In general implementation of the ECN methodology was not found to be particularly onerous or difficult. As a result of the pilot study some changes in the ECN methodology have been made, primarily to reduce the workload so that sites can be surveyed comfortably in a single day.     

Accurate power-sharing,voltage regulation,and SOC regulation for LVDC microgrid with hybrid energy storage system using artificial neural network

ABSTRACT

In this paper, an artificial neural network-based control strategy is proposed for low voltage DC microgrid (LVDC microgrid) with a hybrid energy storage system (HESS) to improve power-sharing between battery and supercapacitor (SC) to suit the demand-generation imbalance, maintain state-of-charge (SOC) within boundaries and thereby to regulate the dc bus voltage. The conventional controller cannot track the SCs current rapidly with the high-frequency component that will place dynamic stress on the battery, further resulting in shorter battery life. The significant advantage is that in the proposed control strategy, redirections of unwaged battery currents to SCs for fast compensations enhance battery life span. The proposed control strategy effectiveness was investigated by simulations, including a comparison of overshoot/undershoot and settling time in dc bus voltage with a conventional control strategy. The results have been experimentally verified by hardware-in-loop (HIL) on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based real-time simulator.     

CRITICAL STATE OF SALT-WATER UPCONING BENEATH ARTESIAN DISCHARGE WELLS1

ABSTRACT: An approach, based on the realization of the vertical components of flow is presented to determine the free surface of gravity wells and the shape of salt-water upconing in artesian aquifers. The transitional stages from pumping fresh water to pumping salt water at the critical condition are discussed. Vertical hydraulic resistances, being determined and included in the flow domain, allow the use of the finite-difference approximation in a simple form. The suggested approach implies the use of either simple modeling or computing techniques.     

复杂矿井通风系统分支阻力可调性数值研究

笔者应用数字实验方法 ,通过调节分支阻力 ,研究它对通风系统的影响。研究结果表明 :当一些分支的阻力调到接近完全隔断风流的极大值时 ,网络分析结果仍然正常 ,不影响迭代技术 ;同样也说明了分支阻力预先输入的可行性 ;各分支阻力的变化对通风系统的影响程度是不一样的 ,这由分支在通风网络中的位置决定 ;通过分析 ,给出了通风系统中两风机的相互影响的情况。     

基于贝叶斯网络分类的土壤盐渍化遥感监测

贝叶斯网络是一种将贝叶斯概率方法和有向无环图的网络拓扑结构有机结合的概率模型.采用贝叶斯网络分类对具有典型干旱特征的库车县土壤盐渍化情况进行监测,首先应用条件独立性测试原理建立贝叶斯网络结构,把研究区遥感数据进行离散化,然后应用贝叶斯定理作为分类原则,将每个像元分为像元最大概率的类别.研究结果表明该方法来分类6种地类的整体分类精度达到96%,并为该区盐渍地面积,空间分布等特征监测提供较好的依据.     

太湖叶绿素a浓度预测模型初探

以太湖2005年的监测资料为基础,运用多元统计回归和BP人工神经网络方法构建模型,探求叶绿素a与水深、水温、营养盐等10项环境因子之间的关系,通过验证发现BP模型对叶绿素a浓度的拟合值与叶绿素a浓度的实测值之间的均方误差为220．3059,优于统计回归模型的235．4569;此外对两种模型进行了灵敏度测试,结果都显示总磷不是太湖叶绿素a浓度的限制因子,而水深、水温、总氮的变化对叶绿素a浓度影响显著。本研究对太湖叶绿素a浓度预测模型的建立是十分有意义的。