中国北方干燥地城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响——以呼和浩特-包头-鄂尔多斯城市群地区为例

理解中国北方干燥地城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响对提高干燥地人类福祉和实现区域可持续发展具有重要的意义。为此,论文以正在经历快速城市化的呼和浩特-包头-鄂尔多斯（呼包鄂）地区为例,从区域、城市和旗县3个尺度上揭示了该地区1990—2013年城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响。首先,量化了呼包鄂地区1990年的生境质量、粮食生产、肉类生产和碳储量4种关键生态系统服务。然后,分析了1990—2013年呼包鄂地区的城市扩展过程。最后,在区域、城市和旗县3个尺度上评价了呼包鄂地区1990—2013年城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响。结果显示,1990—2013年,呼包鄂地区经历了快速的城市扩展过程,城市用地面积从314.22 km²增加到692.10 km²,增长了1.2倍。区域城市扩展过程导致4种生态系统服务均明显下降。其中,粮食生产服务损失最严重,损失量达1.36×10⁴ t,约占1990年全区粮食生产总量的1%。边缘型和飞地型城市扩展对生态系统服务的影响最明显。1990—2013年,边缘型城市扩展导致的粮食生产、肉类生产和碳储量损失量占区域城市扩展过程中各项服务损失总量的比例均超过60%,飞地型城市扩展造成的肉类生产服务损失量大于区域城市扩展过程中该服务损失总量的1/3。边缘型和飞地型城市扩展过程导致的耕地和草地大量减少是造成生态系统服务快速下降的主要原因。因此,建议在呼包鄂地区的城市化进程中应提高城市用地利用率,控制边缘型和飞地型城市扩展,以减少城市扩展过程对生态系统服务的影响。     

Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.     

Enhancing generic ecological model for short-term prediction of Southern North Sea algal dynamics with remote sensing images

Physically based numerical modelling follows from the basic understanding of the underlying mechanisms and is often represented by a set of (partial differential) equations. It is one of the main approaches in population dynamics modelling. The emphasis of the model introduced in this paper is on the simulation of short-term spatial and temporal dynamics of harmful algal bloom (HAB) events. Total suspended matter (TSM) concentration is one of the dominant factors for harmful algal bloom (HAB) prediction in North Sea. However, the modelling of suspended matter contains a high degree of uncertainty in this area. Therefore, this research aims to achieve a better estimation for the short-term prediction of harmful algal bloom development in both space and time by using spatially distributed TSM retrieved from remotely sensed images as physically based model inputs. In order to supply complete spatially covered datasets for the physically based model instrument: generic ecological model (GEM), this research retrieves TSM information from MERIS images by means of proper estimation techniques including biharmonic splines and self-learning cellular automata. A better estimation of HAB spatial pattern development is achieved by adding spatially distributed TSM data as inputs to original GEM model, and it proved that chlorophyll-a concentration in this area is very sensitive to TSM concentration.     

Reflecting ecological criteria in laws supporting the Baja to Bering Sea marine protected areas network case study

Canadian and US marine conservation law, and other related law, was analyzed to determine if it reflected ecological criteria needed to implement connectivity among marine protected areas of the northeast Pacific in the proposed trilateral Baja to Bering Sea (B2B) initiative. The analysis included both nations’ federal laws and those of California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and British Columbia. While legal provisions exist already to implement marine protected areas for varying reasons, there is little capacity in most laws to create connectivity among them for conservation purposes. Only California's legislation contained explicit provisions for all the criteria. Other federal, state, and provincial laws, while containing provisions for species at risk and vulnerable habitats, generally lacked explicit provisions for the vital criteria, size of area, migratory patterns, and recruitment patterns. Implementation, future management, and protection of the proposed B2B marine network would be facilitated by amendment of both Canadian and US laws. Some of the ecological criteria are already implied implicitly or vaguely, but they need to be made explicit in the amended law. The legislative model of California could serve as a template for amending the laws of other jurisdictions in the B2B venture.     

GIS与层次分析法相结合的生态环境综合评价研究——以渝西地区为例

将GIS与层次分析法相结合应用于渝西地区生态环境质量综合评价。首先,根据渝西地区生态环境的基本特点确定生态环境质量综合评价的指标体系和基本评价单元,通过层次分析法,确定各评价指标的权重,计算出每个评价单元的生态环境质量综合指数和分指数;然后运用GIS技术,根据每个评价单元的质量指数和分指数,自动生成渝西地区生态环境综合评价等级图;在此基础上,对渝西地区生态环境整体及各不同侧面质量状况的空间分异规律进行分析和研究。结果显示,渝西区生态环境质量基本上由南向北逐渐降低,与自然环境状况的空间格局大体吻合,但局部地区有差异。表明自然条件对渝西地区生态环境质量的空间分异起决定性作用,但社会经济和环境污染等因素同样对生态环境具有重要影响,在某些情况下,甚至可以成为决定因素,并在一定程度上改变生态环境的空间格局。     

1780-1819年华北平原水旱灾害社会响应方式的转变

历史时期水旱灾害的社会响应典型案例重建是气候变化影响与适应研究的重要方向。选取1780-1819年间华北平原发生的4次典型水旱灾害(1785、1792、1813年旱灾及1801年水灾),基于清代档案资料和历史气候重建结果提取代用指标,对其灾情严重程度、政府救灾力度和灾民行为进行了量化描述和对比分析,发现:①4次灾害中赈济密度(赈灾物资数/成灾州县数)逐次下降,1813年旱灾中降至不足1785年旱灾的1/6,政府救灾力度遭到严重削弱;②灾民行为日益失控,从1792年旱灾和1801年水灾中的大规模跨区域迁徙,发展到1813年旱灾中大量加入盗匪和起义军,走向暴力。这一转变的发生,是在自然(气候突变、灾害增多)、社会(政府财政危机、人地矛盾激化)不利背景之下,政府与灾民的互动关系日趋消极的结果。     

An unusual high ozone event over the North and Northeast China during the record-breaking summer in 2018

Under the background of global warming, the summer temperature of the North and Northeast China (NNEC) has significantly increased since 2017, which was accompanied by the aggravated ozone (O₃) pollution. In 2018, the NNEC experienced a record-breaking summer of the past 40 years. Influenced by the abnormal high temperatures, a regional ozone event occurred on 2-3 August, over 63% of 79 selected cities in the NNEC were exposed to O₃ pollution, and the maximum value of MDA8 O₃ reached 268 μg/m³. Observations indicated that ozone concentrations agree well with the maximum temperature at 2 meters (MT2M) over NNEC with a correlation coefficient of 0.69. During the pollution episode, strong downdraft in the local high (35°N-42.5°N, 112.5°E-132.5°E; LH) over the NNEC created the favourable meteorological conditions for O₃ formation. By analyzing the horizontal wind and wave activity fluxes (WAFs) at 200 hPa, we found that the LH formation was resulted from the Rossby wave propagation from upstream along the mid-latitude Asian jet. The split polar vortex intrusion further strengthened the amplitude of the Rossby wave and reinforced the LH. Moreover, a secondary circulation between Typhoon Jongdari and the LH contributed to the enhanced LH with strong subsidence. On the other hand, the stratospheric intrusions under the deep subsidence also contributed to the enhanced surface O₃. In this study, the deep-seated meteorological dynamical mechanisms contributing to the abnormal high temperatures were investigated, which can lead to a better understanding of the regional O₃ pollution over NNEC under the global-warming background.     

Conservation Threats Due to Human-Caused Increases in Fire Frequency in Mediterranean-Climate Ecosystems

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial analysis of relationships between people and fire may help identify areas where increases in fire frequency will threaten ecologically valuable areas.     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

Decadal changes in a NW Mediterranean Sea food web in relation to fishing exploitation

We analysed changes in the ecological roles of species, trophic structure and ecosystem functioning using four standardized mass-balance models of the South Catalan Sea (North-western Mediterranean). Models represented the ecosystem during the late 1970s, mid 1990s, early 2000s, and a simulated no-fishing scenario. The underlying hypothesis was that ecosystem models should quantitatively capture the increasing exploitation in the ecosystem from the 1970s to 2000s, as well as differences between the exploited and non-exploited scenarios. Biomass showed a general decrease, while there was an increase in biomass at lower trophic levels (TL) from the 1970s to 2000s. The efficiency of energy transfer (TE) from lower to higher TLs significantly increased with time. The ecosystem during the 1990s showed higher biomass and flows than during the 1970s and 2000s due to an increase in small pelagic fish biomass (especially sardines). Exploited food webs also showed similarities in terms of general structure and functioning due to high intensity of fishing already in the 1970s. This intensity was highlighted with low trophic levels in the catch, high consumption of production by fisheries, medium to high primary production required to sustain the catches and high losses in secondary production due to fishing. Significant differences on ecosystem structure and functioning were highlighted between the exploited and no-fishing scenarios. Biomass of higher TLs increased under the no-fishing scenario and the mean trophic level of the community and the fish/invertebrate biomass ratios were substantially lower in exploited food webs. The efficiency of energy transfer (TE) from lower to higher TLs was lower under the no-fishing scenario, and it showed a continuous decrease with increasing TL. Marine mammals, large hake, anglerfish and large pelagic fish were identified as keystone species of the ecosystem when there was no fishing, while their ecological importance notably decreased under the exploited periods. On the contrary, the importance of small-sized organisms such as benthic invertebrates and small pelagic fish was higher in exploited food webs.