北疆地区近53年极端气温事件及其影响因素分析

根据北疆地区1960—2012年31个气象站点的逐日最高气温和最低气温资料,采用线性趋势分析、主成分分析和反距离加权等方法对该地区的年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温和14个极端气温指数的时空变化特征进行了研究,并探讨了各极端气温指数与北极涛动指数、北大西洋涛动指数和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动之间的关系。研究表明:(1)近53年来,北疆地区年平均最低气温、年平均最高气温分别以0.49℃·(10a)~(-1)、0.22℃·(10a)~(-1)的年际倾向率呈显著的上升趋势;气温日较差以0.27℃·(10a)~(-1)的年际倾向率呈显著下降趋势。极端暖指数除暖昼日数、夏日日数和极端最高气温均表现为不显著的上升趋势外,其他暖指数均呈显著上升趋势;极端冷指数中除极端最低气温、日最高气温的极小值呈上升趋势外,其他冷指数均呈减小趋势;在空间变化上各极端气温指数均表现为在阿尔泰山东南部地区和伊犁河谷地区变化幅度较大,其他地区变化较小。(2)冷指数(冷夜、日最高气温的极小值、极端最低气温)的增温幅度明显大于部分暖指数(暖夜、日最低气温极大值、极端最高气温),这一变化特征在山麓、山谷等地区表现最为明显,而在这一地区夜指数(暖夜、冷夜)的变暖幅度也明显大于昼指数(暖昼、冷昼)。(3)极端气温指数与大气环流指数相关性分析表明,三种大气环流指数中北极涛动指数对北疆地区极端气温的影响最为明显,其次是北大西洋涛动指数,且这两种大气环流指数对研究区极端气温冷指数的影响较为显著,而厄尔尼诺-南方涛动对研究区极端气温影响较小。     

中国北方农牧交错带气候变化特点及未来趋势——基于观测和模拟资料的综合分析

中国北方农牧交错带是中国生态文明建设的一个重点地区。准确评估其气候变化趋势对于该区域可持续发展至关重要。本文的研究目的是在揭示1971-2015年气候变化特征的基础上,分析区域2006-2050年气候变化趋势。为此,本文综合观测和模拟数据分析了区域1971-2015年的历史气候变化以及2006-2050年的未来气候变化。研究发现：1971-2015年,中国北方农牧交错带气候变化呈暖干化趋势,年均气温的增长速率为0.39 ℃/10 a,年降水量的变化速率为-4.60 mm/10 a。2006-2050年,区域气候变化将呈暖湿化趋势,区域总体年均气温的增长速率为0.20~0.50 ℃/10 a,年降水量的变化速率为1.49~15.59 mm/10 a。同时,如果不有效控制温室气体排放,区域气候系统的不稳定性将加剧。2006-2050年,随着温室气体排放浓度的不断增加,区域增温速率从0.25 ℃/10 a增长至0.48 ℃/10 a,降水变化速率从3.97 mm/10 a增长至14.58 mm/10 a。因此,需要高度重视中国北方农牧交错带气候变化的减缓和适应问题,以促进该区域的可持续发展。     

中国北方典型设施菜地土壤稀土元素分布特征及环境意义

以我国北方地区天津武清、山西晋中、辽宁沈阳和内蒙古乌兰察布等地的典型设施菜地土壤为研究对象,分析设施蔬菜种植过程中土壤稀土元素的变化特征,尝试利用稀土元素特征值示踪、表征人类活动对土壤生态环境干扰的可行性.结果发现,辽宁沈阳设施菜地表层土壤中稀土元素总量(REE)范围为146.52～158.76mg·kg-1,均值为1...     

北方湖库沉积物重金属区域特征及生态风险评价

以白洋淀、衡水湖、于桥水库、松花湖、大伙房水库和小兴凯湖沉积作为研究对象,通过对北方六湖库沉积物中Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni等重金属元素进行分析,并与国内外其他水域重金属污染情况进行多因素比较,探讨了六湖库主要重金属污染源的差异性,区域分布特征以及与国内外其他水域污染的相似性和区别.结果表明,六湖库沉积物重金属污染处于中等偏下水平.六湖库之间主要重金属污染源存在差别.沉积物重金属含量未出现明显上升的趋势.其中Zn、Pb存在富集现象,但Pb含量与历史数据相比出现下降,Zn的含量与其他地区相比整体偏高.大伙房水库沉积物重金属污染较重,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni含量平均值分别为56.28,142.3,17.44,97.9,44.44mg/kg.小兴凯湖沉积物重金属含量最低,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni含量平均值分别为2.41,63.90,13.37,56.36,26.09mg/kg.六湖库综合风险评价结果为大伙房水库>于桥水库>白洋淀>衡水湖>松花湖>小兴凯湖,重金属整体潜在生态风险指数为低.     

基于MODIS-NDVI的2000—2018年中国北方土地沙化敏感性时空变化

选择植被覆盖度、湿润指数、大风日数、土壤表层砂粒含量和坡度5个因子作为评价指标,基于多源数据开展了中国北方14省（区）2000—2018年土地沙化敏感性空间分布格局及其动态变化研究,并按土地易起沙尘程度的高低依次划分为极易起沙尘和高度易起沙尘（高敏感等级）、中等易起沙尘（中敏感等级）、轻度易起沙尘和不易起沙尘（低敏感等级）。结果表明：2000—2018年中国北方14省（区）处于土地沙化高敏感等级的面积从48.1%下降至40.4%,处于土地沙化低敏感等级的面积从30.3%上升至38.8%,整体呈土地沙化高敏感等级向中、低敏感等级过渡的趋势。与2000年相比,2018年内蒙古科尔沁、浑善达克和毛乌素沙地及其周边区域极易起沙尘和高度易起沙尘的土地面积明显减小,植被覆盖度的增加和大风日数的减少是这种变化的重要原因。     

Assessing strategies to reconcile agriculture and bird conservation in the temperate grasslands of South America

Globally, agriculture is the greatest source of threat to biodiversity, through both ongoing conversion of natural habitat and intensification of existing farmland. Land sparing and land sharing have been suggested as alternative approaches to reconcile this threat with the need for land to produce food. To examine which approach holds most promise for grassland species, we examined how bird population densities changed with farm yield (production per unit area) in the Campos of Brazil and Uruguay. We obtained information on biodiversity and crop yields from 24 sites that differed in agricultural yield. Density–yield functions were fitted for 121 bird species to describe the response of population densities to increasing farm yield, measured in terms of both food energy and profit. We categorized individual species according to how their population changed across the yield gradient as being positively or negatively affected by farming and according to whether the species’ total population size was greater under land‐sparing, land‐sharing, or an intermediate strategy. Irrespective of the yield, most species were negatively affected by farming. Increasing yields reduced densities of approximately 80% of bird species. We estimated land sparing would result in larger populations than other sorts of strategies for 67% to 70% of negatively affected species, given current production levels, including three threatened species. This suggests that increasing yields in some areas while reducing grazing to low levels elsewhere may be the best option for bird conservation in these grasslands. Implementing such an approach would require conservation and production policies to be explicitly linked to support yield increases in farmed areas and concurrently guarantee that larger areas of lightly grazed natural grasslands are set aside for conservation.     

Assessing Multiregion Avian Benefits from Strategically Targeted Agricultural Buffers

Mounting evidence of wildlife population gains from targeted conservation practices has prompted the need to develop and evaluate practices that are integrated into production agriculture systems and targeted toward specific habitat objectives. However, effectiveness of targeted conservation actions across broader landscapes is poorly understood. We evaluated multiregion, multispecies avian densities on row‐crop fields with native grass field margins (i.e., buffers) as part of the first U.S. agricultural conservation practice designed to support habitat and population recovery objectives of a national wildlife conservation initiative. We coordinated breeding season point transect surveys for 6 grassland bird species on 1151 row‐crop fields with and without native grass buffers (9–37 m) in 14 U.S. states (10 ecoregions) from 2006 to 2011. In most regions, breeding season densities of 5 of 6 targeted bird species were greater in the 500‐m surrounding survey points centered on fields with native grass buffers than in landscapes without buffers. Relative effect sizes were greatest for Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), Dickcissel (Spiza americana), and Field Sparrow (Spizella pusilla) in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and Eastern Tallgrass Prairie regions. Other species (e.g., Eastern Meadowlark [Sturnella magna], Grasshopper Sparrow [Ammodramus savannarum]) exhibited inconsistent relative effect sizes. Bird densities on fields with and without buffers were greatest in the Central Mixed‐grass Prairie region. Our results suggest that strategic use of conservation buffers in regions with the greatest potential for relative density increases in target species will elicit greater range‐wide population response than diffuse, uninformed, and broadly distributed implementation of buffers. We recommend integrating multiple conservation practices in broader agricultural landscapes to maximize conservation effectiveness for a larger suite of species. Evaluación de los Beneficios de la Mutliregionalidad de Aves a Partir de Amortiguadores Agriculturales Estratégicamente Señalados     

近20 a陕北地区耕地变化及其对农田生产力的影响

陕北地区耕地开垦和生态保护与建设工程等对耕地资源的空间分布格局产生了重要影响,并进一步影响农田生产力。论文基于中高分辨率卫星遥感数据,经人机交互目视解译和实地验证,生成陕北地区1990、2000和2010年耕地现状以及前后两个10 a耕地动态数据集。利用光能利用率遥感模型,结合中分辨率、长时间序列卫星遥感数据估算陕北地区农田净初级生产力,分析耕地变化对农田生产力的影响。结果表明,陕北地区耕地面积及其生产力在研究期前10 a小幅增长,后10 a明显减少。耕地减少的最主要原因是生态退耕,城市化也是耕地减少的原因之一。总体而言,20 a来,陕北地区耕地资源总面积净减少42.56%;受耕地面积变化的影响,同期农田净初级生产力下降了41.90%。研究对于评估陕北地区耕地安全和粮食安全,指导区域土地利用科学规划,具有重要意义。     

Detecting Population Declines over Large Areas with Presence-Absence, Time-to-Encounter, and Count Survey Methods

Abstract:  Ecologists often discount presence-absence surveys as a poor way to gain insight into population dynamics, in part because these surveys are not amenable to many standard statistical tests. Still, presence-absence surveys are sometimes the only feasible alternative for monitoring large areas when funds are limited, especially for sparse or difficult-to-detect species. I undertook a detailed simulation study to compare the power of presence-absence, count, and time-to-encounter surveys to detect regional declines in a population. I used a modeling approach that simulates both population numbers and the monitoring process, accounting for observation and other measurement errors. In gauging the efficacy of presence-absence surveys versus other approaches, I varied the number of survey sites, the spatial variation in encounter rate, the mean encounter rate, and the type of population loss. My results showed that presence-absence data can be as or more powerful than count data in many cases. Quantitative guidelines for choosing between presence-absence surveys and count surveys depend on the biological and logistical constraints governing a conservation monitoring situation. Generally, presence-absence surveys work best when there is little variability in abundance among the survey sites, the organism is rare, and the species is difficult to detect so that the time spent getting to each survey site is less than or equal to the time spent surveying each site. Count surveys work best otherwise. I present a case study with count data on the Northern Flicker ( Colaptes auratus ) from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to illustrate how the method might be used with field-survey data. The case study demonstrates that a count survey would be the most cost-effective design but would entail reduction in the number of sites. If this site reduction is not desirable, a presence-absence survey would be the most cost-effective survey.     

Rice mill waste as organic manure on a degraded Alfisol

In much of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the lack of organic soil amendments constitutes one of the principal causes for declining soil fertility in intensifying farming systems. The challenge, therefore, remains to increase the availability of organic inputs and to develop recommendations for their combination with inorganic fertilizers. An on-farm experiment was conducted in the northern Guinea savanna of Nigeria to evaluate the fertilizer effect of rice (Oryza sativa L.) mill waste (RMW) on a degraded Alfisol. The decomposition and nutrient (N and P) release patterns of RMW were studied using the litterbag technique, and the effect on maize yield and soil properties was determined. The RMW was applied at rates of 0, 5, 10, and 15 Mg DM ha⁻¹ and was applied either unburnt or burnt (farmers’ practice). In both years, compound fertilizer was broadcast during land preparation on all plots at rates of 40 kg N ha⁻¹, 17 kg P ha⁻¹, and 33 kg K ha⁻¹.Results obtained in the litterbag study showed that, at maize harvest, more than 90% of the P had been released from the decomposing RMW. However, around 60% of the organic C and 45% of the N still remained. Compared to the control treatment (0 Mg ha⁻¹ RMW), which yielded 0.55 Mg ha⁻¹, maize (Zea mays L.) grain yields were increased by 95% when 10 Mg ha⁻¹ of unburnt RMW was applied, and by 147% with 15 Mg ha⁻¹ (mean of 2 years). In contrast, burnt RMW did not result in significant yield increases. The cumulative application of 30 Mg ha⁻¹ of unburnt RMW significantly increased the soil organic carbon in the surface soil from 0.7% (0 Mg ha⁻¹ RMW) to 1.3%.The results of this investigation indicate that RMW constitutes a valuable organic input in the Guinea savanna if applied unburnt at rates of 10–15 Mg ha⁻¹ in combination with inorganic fertilizer. The repeated application of unburnt RMW may contribute to the rehabilitation of degraded soils through the buildup of soil organic matter.