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121.
基于灰建模的瓦斯含量多变量预测模型研究 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
研究了GM(1,N)、GM(0,N)瓦斯含量预测模型的数学原理,收集郑煤集团告成矿地质勘探期间及生产期间的瓦斯含量实测资料,获得16个可靠点,选取基岩厚度、新生界厚度、煤层厚度、煤层水分、煤层灰分、50m顶板含砂率6个因素作灰色建模预测的指标,分别建立了GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量多变量预测模型。根据计算和评价结果,GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量预测模型精度均能够满足工程精度的要求,说明利用灰色模型来预测瓦斯含量是可行的。由于前者精度略高于后者,故建议告成矿采用GM(1,6)模型来进行未知地区煤层瓦斯含量的预测。需要注意,由于模型没有考虑构造的影响,在实际预测时,还应根据构造对待预测区的影响关系和影响程度对模型的预测结果进行修正。 相似文献
122.
Leaching behavior of heavy metals from municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash and its geochemical modeling 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Hua Zhang Pin-Jing He Li-Ming Shao Xin-Jie Li 《Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management》2008,10(1):7-13
With the increase in the number of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants constructed in China recently, great attention
has been paid to the heavy metal leaching toxicity of MSWI residues. In this study, the effects of various parameters, including
extractant, leaching time, liquid-to-solid ratio, leachate pH, and heavy metal content, on the release properties of Cd, Cr,
Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn from MSWI bottom ash were investigated. Partial least-squares analysis was employed to highlight the interrelationships
between the factors and response variables. Both experimental research and geochemical modeling using Visual MINTEQ software
were conducted to study the pH-dependent leaching behavior of these metals in fresh and weathered bottom ash, considering
precipitation/dissolution and surface complexation reactions (adsorption by hydrous ferric oxide and amorphous aluminum oxide/hydroxide).
The results showed that leachate pH was the predominant factor influencing heavy metal leachability. The leaching of Cu, Pb,
and Zn was mainly controlled by precipitation/dissolution reactions, whereas surface complexation had some effect on the leaching
of Cr, Cd, and Ni for certain pH ranges. The modeling results aggreed well with the experimental results.
Part of this work was presented at the Fourth International Conference on Combustion, Incineration/Pyrolysis and Emission
Control (i-CIPEC) 相似文献
123.
The practice of contaminant transport and remediation has shown significant progress in recent years. However, despite the
significant progress made, remediation efforts are often delayed by extremely long breakthrough curve tails that render efforts
to bring the level of contaminants below the regulatory standards inefficient. One hypothesis is that these long tails are
due to the reservoir-like slow diffusive processes in soil micropore zones. This study compares the effects of micropores
at macroscopic and microscopic levels and establishes a link between these approaches for validation and calibration purposes.
The link between macroscopic and microscopic levels is established through comparisons and testing of the two models while
incorporating appropriate scale and boundary effects. Despite the differences in conceptual approaches and simulation time,
the two approaches rendered meaningful results. The link helps forecast the effects of micropore zone transport processes
in the subsurface efficiently and thus allows development of numerical tools that could contribute towards more efficient
remediation design. 相似文献
124.
Foran J. Brosnan T. Connor M. Delfino J. DePinto J. Dickson K. Humphrey H. Novotny V. Smith R. Sobsey M. Stehman S. 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2000,62(2):147-167
The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors. 相似文献
125.
Most of the mesoscale models use roughness parameters to characterise the ground and to compute the surface stress. As the experimental determinations of the urban roughness parameters are rare and not very reliable, a new methodology based on microscale numerical simulations is presented here and the first results from two-dimensional simulations with different roof shapes are analysed.Firstly, it appears that the roof shape has a large influence : large difference in the Reynolds stress profile and in the roughness sub-layer thickness, enhancement of the exchanges at the roof level by buildings with attic. It also appears that the fetch necessary to obtain a constant flux layer is unrealistic compared to the real spatial homogeneity of quarters in European cities. Consequently, a new parameterisation of the urban ground-induced friction is to be developed without reference to the constant flux layer theory. 相似文献
126.
Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge,
as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts
in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps
for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal
city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated
models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
127.
Jean-Charles Hourcade Minh Ha-Duong Arnulf Grübler Richard S.J. Tol 《Integrated Assessment》2001,2(1):31-35
This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement. 相似文献
128.
A. Veldkamp P.H. Verburg K. Kok G.H.J. de Koning J. Priess A.R. Bergsma 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2001,6(2):111-121
This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories. 相似文献
129.
130.
We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model
was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this
formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community,
and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability
is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the
African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced
long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters
influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable
diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus,
given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas
should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived
elephant threats to vegetation. 相似文献