上海市实施清洁空气行动计划的健康收益分析

为掌握上海市实施清洁空气行动计划(2013~2017年)的人群健康收益,综合采用空气质量数值模拟、健康风险评估、环境价值评估方法定量评价行动计划实施后居民大气PM_(2.5)暴露水平变化及健康和经济效益.结果表明,PM_(2.5)年均暴露浓度在35μg·m~(-3)及以下的人口比例由基准年的1.62%上升至控制年的34.06%,归因PM_(2.5)暴露死亡风险由基准年的15.2%下降至控制年的11.9%.实现的健康收益总和为118.41亿元(95%CI:50.24~178.19亿元),占2013年上海市国民生产总值0.55%(95%CI:0.23%~0.82%).行动计划的实施对保护人群健康具有积极作用,外环线以内人口密集且PM_(2.5)降幅较高的区域健康收益更加显著.     

PM2.5污染对我国健康负担和经济损失的影响

开展全国范围归因于PM_2.5污染的健康负担和经济损失研究,对于污染防控政策至关重要.首先利用空气质量模型（WRF-Chem）模拟结果,分析2016年PM_2.5的时空分布和暴露水平;同时结合环境健康风险及环境价值评估方法,评估PM_2.5污染引起的健康负担和经济损失;最后基于情景分析方法,预估实现具体PM_2.5控制目标的健康经济效益.结果表明,2016年,我国PM_2.5污染主要集中在京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区、四川盆地以及西北沙漠地区,且71.49%的人口暴露在PM_2.5浓度高于35 μg·m^-3的环境空气中;PM_2.5污染造成约106.04万人过早死亡,约占总死亡人数的10.9%,其中冠心病和中风约占80%;PM_2.5污染造成健康经济损失7059.31亿元,约占国内生产总值（GDP）的0.95%.PM_2.5污染造成的健康负担和经济损失存在显著空间差异,主要分布在PM_2.5浓度和人口密度高的中东部地区;情景分析表明,我国所有地区PM_2.5浓度降至35 μg·m^-3,只能避免17.11%的健康经济损失,而降至10 μg·m^-3可以带来80.47%的健康经济效益.建议环境管理者进一步加强控制力度,更好地保障居民的健康和财富利益,尤其是心脑血管疾病患者等敏感人群以及归因死亡率高的地区.     

Women and children last: An essay on sex discrimination in disasters

In general, little attention has been given to differential survival between the sexes in disasters. Consideration of physiological differences between males and females would suggest that, all things being equal, morbidity and mortality after disaster, particularly where food shortage is involved, should indicate an excess male mortality. Such statistics as exist in disasters, as in chronic underdevelopment, show that it is females and especially girl children who are at highest risk. The basis of this lies in sex discrimination which is implicit in most social systems.     

Mortality of pollen beetle (Meligethes spp.) larvae due to predators and parasitoids in rape fields and the effect of conservation strips

In 1996–1999, different mortality factors of pollen beetle larvae were investigated in twenty six rape fields in the northern part of Switzerland which had either a wild flower strip or an extensively managed meadow adjacent to the long side of the field. At 3 and 30 m into the crop from the conservation strip, total mortality, mortality from predators, parasitoids and unspecified factors were measured. Total pollen beetle larval mortality was 66–96%. Mortality caused by predators was 16–27% and there was no significant difference between mortality at 3 m and that 30 m from the extensively managed meadows. However, in fields with wild flower strips adjacent to them, the percentage mortality from predators was significantly greater at 30 m than at 3 m. The range of parasitism of pollen beetle larvae was 0–54% and was on average greater at 3 m than at 30 m. In fields with wild flower strips, the percentage parasitism with Tersilochus heterocerus was significantly higher than in fields with extensively managed meadows. However, mortality from all parasitoids was only 1–2% and there was no significant difference between 3 and 30 m. The effect of parasitoids on pollen beetle mortality was masked by the high unspecified mortality and the mortality from predators. The unspecified mortality was 46–72% and was significantly greater in 1998 and 1999 than in 1996 and 1997. These differences are probably because of meteorological factors (wet in 1999 and dry in 1998). The possible influences of the two types of conservation strips on pollen beetle larval density were investigated. The results show that in fields with adjacent wild flower strips, the pollen beetle larvae were more evenly distributed (but not significantly so) than in fields with extensively managed meadows where larval density decreases faster from the edge into the rape field.     

An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths

The objective of this paper is to investigate and to improve understanding of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. A standardised method of classifying flood deaths is proposed and the difficulties associated with comparing and assessing existing information on flood deaths are discussed. Thirteen flood cases from Europe and the United States, resulting in 247 flood disaster fatalities, were analysed and taken as indicative of flood disaster deaths. Approximately two-thirds of the deaths occurred through drowning. Thus, a substantial number of flood disaster fatalities are not related to drowning. Furthermore, males are highly vulnerable to dying in floods and unnecessary risk-taking behaviour contributes significantly to flood disaster deaths. Based on these results, recommendations are made to prevent loss of life in floods. To provide a more solid basis for the formulation of prevention strategies, better systematic recording of flood fatalities is suggested, especially those caused by different types of floods in all countries.     

Non-adaptive adoptions of nestlings in the colonial lesser kestrel: proximate causes and fitness consequences

We examined the causes, costs and benefits of adoption in the altricial lesser kestrel Falco naumanni. Specifically, we tested the intergenerational conflict hypothesis, proposed to explain adoption in some birds. Adoptions involved 76% of the nests and 51% of the nestlings at a mean age of 25 days (12 days before fledging). Nest-switching nestlings were not in poorer body condition, more parasitized or younger than their siblings, and body condition and prey delivery rates of their parents did not differ from those of other parents. In the foster nest, adopted nestlings did not benefit from higher feeding rates or a prolongation of the nestling period. They did not have fewer nest-mates or achieve higher rank within the new brood. Thus, adopted nestlings did not improve their body condition and survival. Adult lesser kestrels seemed unable to finely discriminate beween their own and alien chicks. Foster parents bore the cost of an increase of prey delivery rates, although it did not affect their survival or subsequent reproductive performance. Therefore, our results do not support the intergenerational conflict hypothesis, and suggest that adoption in this species is non-adaptive. Traditionally, the lesser kestrel bred in cliffs where movement among nest-sites was restricted. Nowadays, about half of the colonies are in tiled roofs which facilitate nest-switching by nestlings. The high rate of adoptions may thus be explained as reproductive errors associated with the recent occupation of a new breeding habitat. Received: 3 May 1996 / Accepted after revision: 19 January 1997     

Extra-pair paternity, offspring mortality and offspring sex ratio in the socially monogamous coal tit (Parus ater)

Females of many socially monogamous bird species commonly engage in extra-pair copulations. Assuming that extra-pair males are more attractive than the females’ social partners and that attractiveness has a heritable component, sex allocation theory predicts facultative overproduction of sons among extra-pair offspring (EPO) as sons benefit more than daughters from inheriting their father’s attractiveness traits. Here, we present a large-scale, three-year study on sex ratio variation in a passerine bird, the coal tit (Parus ater). Molecular sexing in combination with paternity analysis revealed no evidence for a male-bias in EPO sex ratios compared to their within-pair maternal half-siblings. Our main conclusion, therefore, is that facultative sex allocation to EPO is absent in the coal tit, in accordance with findings in several other species. Either there is no net selection for a deviation from random sex ratio variation (e.g. because extra-pair mating may serve goals different from striving for ‘attractiveness genes’) or evolutionary constraints preclude the evolution of precise maternal sex ratio adjustment. It is interesting to note that, however, we found broods without EPO as well as broods without mortality to be relatively female-biased compared to broods with EPO and mortality, respectively. We were unable to identify any environmental or parental variable to co-vary with brood sex ratios. There was no significant repeatability of sex ratios in consecutive broods of individual females that would hint at some idiosyncratic maternal sex ratio adjustment. Further research is needed to resolve the biological significance of the correlation between brood sex ratios and extra-pair paternity and mortality incidence, respectively.     

A general model for tagging on multiple component fisheries: an integration of age-dependent reporting rates and mortality estimation

A major objective of analyzing multiple year tag return data in fisheries is to estimate fishing and natural mortality rates which may vary by age class and calendar year. To do this one needs to be able to estimate the reporting rates for the tags recovered. Some fisheries such as that for Southern Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) have multiple components with potentially different reporting rates for the tag returns. In this paper we develop a general model for multi-cohort, multi-year tag return analyses where there are multiple components to the fishery with potentially different reporting rates. We require the assumption that one component has a reporting rate of 100% (i.e., this could be the component of a boat based fishery where scientific observers are present). We show further how it is possible to partition the overall likelihood developed into two conditionally independent components. The first component of the likelihood is the standard multinomial likelihood that allows estimation of fishing and natural mortality rates. It uses the tag return matrix summed over all the components of the fishery. It requires an average reporting rate for the tag returns (where the average reporting rate is a weighted average of the individual reporting rates of the different components). The second component is also multinomial for the individual component tag returns and allows us to estimate individual component reporting rates. However, this requires that we augment our second component tag return likelihood with a catch data likelihood for the corresponding components. The methodology is illustrated on some Southern Bluefin Tuna tagging and catch data. We also discuss important model assumptions and give suggestions for future research including the integration of tag-return and catch at age data analyses.     

亚硒酸钠对蚯蚓的毒性及蚓体富硒作用的研究

以100mgkg^-1,200mgkg^-1,300mg kg^-1等不同质量分数（w)的亚硒酸钠（NaSeO2)添加到蚯吲饵料中,研究了亚硒酸钠处理对蚯蚓生长发育及死亡的影响和蚯蚓的富硒作用,结果表明,3个w(NaSeO2)处理对蚯蚓生长发育和富硒量的影响都达到极显著水平,w(NaSeO2)越高,用其处理饲养的蚯蚓死亡率也较高,富硒量也较大,二者存在一定的正相关性,在200mg kg^-1的w(NaSeO2)处理下,当蚯蚓饲养到84d时,蚯蚓的富硒量可达到332．5mg kg^-1,同时死亡率高达90％。     

Relation Between Individual Tree Mortality and Tree Characteristics in a Polluted and Non-Polluted Environmentx

Data on individual tree mortality in relatively healthy (Berezinskiy biosphere reserve) and damaged (surroundings of the mineral fertilizer plant ‘Achema’) even-aged Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands are presented. Tree size and competition intensity were found to be the most significant predictors of individual tree mortality in all age groups of the relatively healthy Scots pine stands, however, an essential reduction in the closeness of relations between the tree mortality rate and these variables was determined with the aging of stands. An exponential decrease in tree mortality probability with an increase of tree size is characteristic for trees suffering different competition intensity, however, this decrease becomes much more pronounced as the competition pressure increases. The relations of different tree and stand variables with tree mortality probability have been found to become much weaker in the polluted environment. An exponential increase in tree mortality probability with an increase of crown defoliation was characteristic of damaged Scots pine stands, however, the rate of the increase was different in different age and diameter classes. The impact of crown defoliation on tree mortality rate increased with the aging of stands. At the same defoliation level, individual tree mortality probability was much higher for smaller suppressed trees, however, a relative increase in tree mortality probability along with an increase of crown defoliation was more pronounced for dominant trees. Conclusion: a higher mortality of damaged (defoliated) trees should be considered while assessing losses in forest productivity in a polluted environment.