北京地区未来地震中各种类型建筑可能造成的人员死亡率

地震房屋倒塌率CR和地震死亡率FR存在一定的关系,据此,本文研究计算得到了北京地区在未来地震中各类建筑可能造成的人员死亡率FR.     

An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths

The objective of this paper is to investigate and to improve understanding of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. A standardised method of classifying flood deaths is proposed and the difficulties associated with comparing and assessing existing information on flood deaths are discussed. Thirteen flood cases from Europe and the United States, resulting in 247 flood disaster fatalities, were analysed and taken as indicative of flood disaster deaths. Approximately two-thirds of the deaths occurred through drowning. Thus, a substantial number of flood disaster fatalities are not related to drowning. Furthermore, males are highly vulnerable to dying in floods and unnecessary risk-taking behaviour contributes significantly to flood disaster deaths. Based on these results, recommendations are made to prevent loss of life in floods. To provide a more solid basis for the formulation of prevention strategies, better systematic recording of flood fatalities is suggested, especially those caused by different types of floods in all countries.     

Potentially preventable prehospital deaths from motor vehicle collisions

Background: In 2011, about 30,000 people died in motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) in the United States. We sought to evaluate the causes of prehospital deaths related to MVCs and to assess whether these deaths were potentially preventable.

Methods: Miami–Dade Medical Examiner records for 2011 were reviewed for all prehospital deaths of occupants of 4-wheeled motor vehicle collisions. Injuries were categorized by affected organ and anatomic location of the body. Cases were reviewed by a panel of 2 trauma surgeons to determine cause of death and whether the death was potentially preventable. Time to death and hospital arrival times were determined using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 2002 to 2012, which allowed comparison of our local data to national prevalence estimates.

Results: Local data revealed that 39% of the 98 deaths reviewed were potentially preventable (PPD). Significantly more patients with PPD had neurotrauma as a cause of death compared to those with a nonpreventable death (NPD) (44.7% vs. 25.0%, P =.049). NPDs were significantly more likely to have combined neurotrauma and hemorrhage as cause of death compared to PPDs (45.0% vs. 10.5%, P <.001). NPDs were significantly more likely to have injuries to the chest, pelvis, or spine. NPDs also had significantly more injuries to the following organ systems: lung, cardiac, and vascular chest (all P <.05). In the nationally representative FARS data from 2002 to 2012, 30% of deaths occurred on scene and another 32% occurred within 1 h of injury. When comparing the 2011 FARS data for Miami–Dade to the remainder of the United States in that year, percentage of deaths when reported on scene (25 vs. 23%, respectively) and within 1 h of injury (35 vs. 32%, respectively) were similar.

Conclusions: Nationally, FARS data demonstrated that two thirds of all MVC deaths occurred within 1 h of injury. Over a third of prehospital MVC deaths were potentially preventable in our local sample. By examining injury patterns in PPDs, targeted intervention may be initiated.     

Heavy metal concentrations in plants and different harvestable parts: A soil-plant equilibrium model

A mathematical interaction model, validated by experimental results, was developed to modeling the metal uptake by plants and induced growth decrease, by knowing metal in soils. The model relates the dynamics of the uptake of metals from soil to plants. Also, two types of relationships are tested: total and available metal content. The model successfully fitted the experimental data and made it possible to predict the threshold values of total mortality with a satisfactory approach. Data are taken from soils treated with Cd and Ni for ryegrass (Lolium perenne, L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.), respectively. Concentrations are measured in the aboveground biomass of plants. In the latter case, the concentration of metals in different parts of the plants (tillering, shooting and earing) is also modeled. At low concentrations, the effects of metals are moderate, and the dynamics appear to be linear. However, increasing concentrations show nonlinear behaviors.     

Characterizing Coral Condition Using Estimates of Three-dimensional Colony Surface Area

Coral reefs provide shoreline protection, biological diversity, fishery harvests, and tourism, all values that stem from the physically-complex coral infrastructure. Stony corals (scleractinians) construct and maintain the reef through deposition of calcium carbonate. Therefore, assessment of coral reefs requires at least some measurement endpoints that reflect the biological and physical condition of stony corals. Most monitoring programs portray coral quantity as live coral cover, which is the two-dimensional proportion of coral surface to sea floor viewed from above (planar view). The absence of the third dimension, however, limits our ability to characterize coral reef value, physiology, health and sustainability. A three-dimensional (3D) approach more realistically characterizes coral structure available as community habitat and, when combined with estimates of live coral tissue, quantifies the amount of living coral available for photosynthesis, growth and reproduction. A rapid coral survey procedure that coupled 3D coral quantification with more traditional survey measurements was developed and tested in the field. The survey procedure relied on only three underwater observations – species identification, colony size, and proportion of live tissue – made on each colony in the transect. These observations generated a variety of metrics, including several based on 3D colony surface area, that are relevant to reef management.     

Using design effects from previous cluster surveys to guide sample size calculation in emergency settings

A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision.     

Economic evaluation of measles catch-up and follow-up campaigns in Afghanistan in 2002 and 2003

This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of, and the return on the investment in, the 2002 catch-up and the 2003 follow-up measles campaigns in Afghanistan from the perspective of the donor. The catch-up campaign targeted nearly 12 million children aged between six months and 12 years, while the follow-up campaign targeted over five million children aged between 9 and 59 months. Both campaigns successfully vaccinated approximately 96 per cent of the respective target populations, and are expected to avert an estimated 301,000 measles deaths over the next 10 years. The average cost per dose of measles vaccine delivered was USD 0.40. The cost per death prevented is USD 23.6, assuming a case fatality rate of 10 per cent and a discount rate of three per cent. With more than 42,000 measles deaths avoided for every one million US dollars spent, the campaigns are an excellent public health investment for precluding childhood mortality in a country affected by a complex emergency.     

FISH EMBRYOS: PRACTICAL INDICATORS OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY OF SIGNWICANCE TO FISHERIES1

ABSTRACT: Cyto-embryological analyses of fish eggs collected in nature can be a more sensitive indicator of environmental pollution than more typical assays conducted on artificially-spawned eggs. This is because uncertainties associated with artificial spawning and rearing are dispensed with, as well as because of the sensitivity of some cellular and subcellular analyses. At the same time, such measures can provide information on interannual differences in egg viability of importance in elucidating great, unexplained variability in fisheries recruitment. Extensive experience with fish embryos from ocean plankton has led to the choice of a particularly useful, practical suite of observations for different developmental stages. This includes measures of embryo mortality, mutagenicity, teratogenicity, abnormal cell differentiation, and development rate. Atlantic mackerel egg mortality has been determined to be greater in the surface waters of the New York Bight apex and along the New Jersey coast than in less polluted portions of the Bight. Chromosome abnormality of mid-stage embryos was also greater in more impacted areas of the same water mass, as well as in the somatic cells of adult mackerel and winter flounder, and in juvenile and adult windowpane flounder caught in more impacted areas. Mortality and abnormality of the mackerel embryos showed statistical associations with toxic hydrocarbons as measured in plankton, and with heavy metals as measured in sea surface waters. The sensitivity, practicality, and relevance of the cytoembryological studies to population dynamics of resource species make this an important means of monitoring environmental quality.     

2015年中国PM2.5相关超额死亡数集成评估

环境空气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))污染是我国目前较为突出的环境问题,也对人群健康造成严重威胁。基于国内外5套不同来源的2015年中国PM_(2.5)年均暴露浓度数据和5种暴露-反应关系(exposure-response,E-R)模型,设置了不同PM_(2.5)暴露浓度与E-R模型的25种组合情景,评估了2015年中国归因于环境PM_(2.5)导致的超额死亡数。结果表明,2015年全国(覆盖2 826个区县) PM_(2.5)相关超额死亡数为75.0万～256.5万例,其中应用国内E-R模型评估得到的超额死亡数(186.0万～256.5万例)大于国外模型评估得到的超额死亡数(75.0万～133.2万例);空间分布上,京津冀、河南、山东等重污染地区及人口密度较大地区的PM_(2.5)相关疾病负担较重,这些地区需制定更严格的政策来改善空气质量及保护公众健康。指出,我国地面监测站获得的暴露数据通常会高估全国PM_(2.5)的实际浓度均值,运用多套PM_(2.5)暴露浓度数据和多种E-R模型评估疾病负担,有利于减少评估的不确定性。提出,应加强我国PM_(2.5)与人群健康的队列研究及数据积累,以获取更准确的E-R关系,提升PM_(2.5)相关疾病负担评估结果的准确性。