基于Mann-Kendall法的湖泊稳态转换突变分析

采用变化趋势与倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和突变点分析法对1981~2008年间太湖湖泊稳态转换关键因子总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)和叶绿素a(Chla)进行突变识别,结果表明,(1)TN、TP和Chla分别在0.05、0.10和0.05水平上呈显著增加趋势;(2)TN浓度在1990~1991年间和1994~1995年间发生了两次突变;TP浓度突变点发生在1987~1988年;Chla浓度历史变化存在三个阶段,1981~1989年为第一阶段,尚未产生突变阶段,第二阶段为1990~1996年,突变过渡阶段,第三阶段为1997~2008年,属于突变后的状态;(3)综合TN、TP和Chla浓度历史变化存在不同阶段,结合各因子的历史变化序列,太湖湖泊稳态转换突变点为1988年和1997年,并把太湖划分为三个阶段,第一阶段为1981~1987年, TP浓度为0.025mg/L,属于草藻共存,接近于清水稳态阶段;第二阶段为1988~1996年, TP浓度为0.086mg/L,属于藻草共存阶段;第三阶段为1997到2008年, TP浓度为0.103mg/L,属于藻型浊水稳态.研究结果表明Mann-Kendall法在湖泊稳态转换突变分析中具有一定的适用性.     

三叶爬山虎叶片解剖结构和光合生理特性对3种生境的响应

藤本植物生活环境的时空变化较为剧烈,为适应异质性生境常表现出较大的可塑性,其形态解剖结构及光合生理特征被认为能很好地体现对异质生境的适应。为了明确藤本植物叶片结构和光合作用对不同生境光强的响应策略,以木质藤本三叶爬山虎（Parthenocissus himalayana）为对象,采用光合仪测定和解剖显微观察的方法研究了哀牢山亚热带湿性常绿阔叶林的林外（全光照）、林缘（遮荫）和林内（荫生）3种自然生境中三叶爬山虎的叶片解剖结构和光合生理特征的变化,以期阐述三叶爬山虎对不同光环境的生态适应能力及策略,为森林生态系统的管理和物种多样性的保护及群落优化配置提供理论依据。结果表明：从林内到林外随着生境光强增加,叶片厚度（157.77～299.17μm）、上表皮厚度（21.30～28.40μm）、栅栏组织厚度（30.83～124.65μm）、栅栏组织细胞面积（430.95～652.97μm2）显著增大（P〈0.01）,栅栏组织细胞长度（29.23～49.54μm）和周长（86.58～155.17μm）、下表皮厚度（16.14～19.01μm）、气孔长度（24.13～27.10μm）和气孔密度（86.20～129.41个·mm-2）呈显著上升趋势（P〈0.05）。栅栏组织细胞宽度（19.67～22.81μm）在3种生境中无显著差异。叶片解剖结构性状的平均可塑性值为0.37,其中最大值是栅栏组织细胞长度（0.67）,最小值是气孔长度（0.11）。光饱和点（201.27～1299.17μmol·m-2·s-1）、光补偿点（3.86～29.88μmol·m-2·s-1）、饱和光强最大光合速率（2.20～12.03μmol·m-2·s-1）、暗呼吸速率（0.17～2.19μmol·m-2·s-1）、CO2补偿点（83.01～237.26μmol·m-2·s-1）、饱和CO2最大净光合速率（2.07～25.49μmol·m-2·s-1）、光呼吸速率（0.36～7.57μmol·m-2·s-1）、初始羧化效率（0.006～0.035μmol·μmol-1）随着生境光强的增高呈上升趋势,而表观量子效率（0.067～0.031μmol·?     

长江流域水生态评价指标初步研究

通过调研20世纪90年代以来国外主流水生态评价项目中采用的生境指标,统计了14个类型生境指标的使用频率,并针对不同的河流类型,筛选出物理形态特征、河岸带状况、生境组成、生境复杂性、人类干扰和水质状况等6个类型的11项评价指标,推荐作为长江流域河流生境评价指标.随后,利用层次分析法对国外水生生物评价指标进行了统计分析,并...     

Permeability of Roads to Movement of Scrubland Lizards and Small Mammals

A primary objective of road ecology is to understand and predict how roads affect connectivity of wildlife populations. Road avoidance behavior can fragment populations, whereas lack of road avoidance can result in high mortality due to wildlife‐vehicle collisions. Many small animal species focus their activities to particular microhabitats within their larger habitat. We sought to assess how different types of roads affect the movement of small vertebrates and to explore whether responses to roads may be predictable on the basis of animal life history or microhabitat preferences preferences. We tracked the movements of fluorescently marked animals at 24 sites distributed among 3 road types: low‐use dirt, low‐use secondary paved, and rural 2‐lane highway. Most data we collected were on the San Diego pocket mouse (Chaetodipus fallax), cactus mouse (Peromyscus eremicus), western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis), orange‐throated whiptail (Aspidoscelis hyperythra), Dulzura kangaroo rat (Dipodomys simulans) (dirt, secondary paved), and deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) (highway only). San Diego pocket mice and cactus mice moved onto dirt roads but not onto a low‐use paved road of similar width or onto the highway, indicating they avoid paved road substrate. Both lizard species moved onto the dirt and secondary paved roads but avoided the rural 2‐lane rural highway, indicating they may avoid noise, vibration, or visual disturbance from a steady flow of traffic. Kangaroo rats did not avoid the dirt or secondary paved roads. Overall, dirt and secondary roads were more permeable to species that prefer to forage or bask in open areas of their habitat, rather than under the cover of rocks or shrubs. However, all study species avoided the rural 2‐lane highway. Our results suggest that microhabitat use preferences and road substrate help predict species responses to low‐use roads, but roads with heavy traffic may deter movement of a much wider range of small animal species.     

海洋石油轮班作业风险定量分析方法研究

长期以来,海洋石油领域风险研究主要集中在对设施的潜在失效概率和后果研究方面,而对于人员可靠性及风险管理方面的研究较弱。然而,据统计资料显示,海上设施在其生命周期内的设计、建造和生产作业等各个阶段中发生的事故大多与人为错误和组织错误（HOE）有关联。在海洋工程领域,开展人员可靠性分析（HRA）的研究工作具有重要意义。根据海上作业的特殊性及轮班制度的特点,推导出轮班风险的定量分析公式,据此计算出每个工作日轮班风险的相对大小,然后结合我国海上作业的实际情况,对影响轮班风险的可变因素进行了敏感性分析,为风险控制与管理提供参考。     

Changing nutrient levels in Lake Maurepas following human population shifts in response to Hurricane Katrina

Following Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, as many as 57% of residents in some parishes in the Lower Lake Pontchartrain Basin were displaced from their homes. Concurrently, the population in the Upper Lake Pontchartrain Basin, which drains into Lake Maurepas, increased by 62,000 residents, leading to increased residential and urban land use. These changes led to significant increases in phosphate and silicate concentrations in Lake Maurepas that are likely caused by non-point source pollution through erosion from new construction sites, fertilisation of new lawns and stress to existing wastewater treatment facilities. Average phosphate concentrations at three sites in Lake Maurepas increased by 76–205% and silicate levels increased by 60–83% compared with data collected in 2003 prior to the hurricane. Discharge-weighted averages increased even more dramatically, with phosphate and silicate concentrations increasing up to 161 and 394%, respectively. Discharge-weighted silicate and phosphate concentrations were 2.5 and 3.4 times greater than in 2003, respectively. Discharge-weighted silicate levels were 3.9 times greater than similar measurements from 1963. These large increases in nutrient and discharge-weighted nutrient concentrations are indicative of increased human population in the Upper Lake Pontchartrain Basin following Hurricane Katrina.     

Acoustically detected year-round presence of right whales in an urbanized migration corridor

Species' conservation relies on understanding their seasonal habitats and migration routes. North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, migrate from the southeastern U.S. coast to Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, a federally designated critical habitat, from February through May to feed. The whales then continue north across the Gulf of Maine to northern waters (e.g., Bay of Fundy). To enter Cape Cod Bay, right whales must traverse an area of dense shipping and fishing activity in Massachusetts Bay, where there are no mandatory regulations for the protection of right whales or management of their habitat. We used passive acoustic recordings of right whales collected in Massachusetts Bay from May 2007 through October 2010 to determine the annual spatial and temporal distribution of the whales and their calling activity. We detected right whales in the bay throughout the year, in contrast to results from visual surveys. Right whales were detected on at least 24% of days in each month, with the exception of June 2007, in which there were no detections. Averaged over all years, right whale calls were most abundant from February through May. During this period, calls were most frequent between 17:00 and 20:00 local time; no diel pattern was apparent in other months. The spatial distribution of the approximate locations of calling whales suggests they may use Massachusetts Bay as a conduit to Cape Cod Bay in the spring and as they move between the Gulf of Maine and waters to the south in September through December. Although it is unclear how dependent right whales are on the bay, the discovery of their widespread presence in Massachusetts Bay throughout the year suggests this region may need to be managed to reduce the probability of collisions with ships and entanglement in fishing gear.     

Should all disaster risks be reduced? A perspective from the systems concept of the edge of chaos

The field of disaster risk reduction (DRR) has risen to prominence since the declaration of the International Decade of Disaster Risk Reduction between 1990 and 2000. This decade provided the impetus for a change from the predominant paradigm of disaster response to that of disaster risk reduction as a means of addressing the underlying drivers that lead to disasters. In an effort to promote risk reduction, the UNISDR (the principal agency for disaster risk reduction within the UN structure) formulated policies and strategies to provide both conceptual and practical guidance as to how risk should be reduced. However noble the efforts, this paper contends that the current approach to and understanding of risk within the international community might not be cognisant of complex adaptive systems (CAS) concepts such as the edge of chaos. Specifically, this concept argues that risk (or chaos) within a system is actually a fundamental requirement to the functioning of all resilient socio-ecological systems. Therefore, the reduction of risk without an understanding of the role of that risk within the larger socio-ecological system might actually end up reducing the system’s overall level of disaster resilience. This paper aims to explore the concept of edge of chaos through a literature review of key theoretical works on the topic, followed by a discussion on its implications for the predominant paradigm of risk reduction within disaster risk management policy and practice.     

香溪河流域水生态系统健康评价

随着人们环境保护意识的增强,河湖生态保护与修复成为社会关注的热点问题,科学的生态健康诊断则是有效进行河湖治理的前提.香溪河作为三峡水库典型支流,探究其水生态系统健康对于长江生态保护具有十分重要的意义.通过收集整理香溪河干支流的生物与生境数据,构建了涵盖水环境、水生生物、物理栖息地三方面共16项指标的水生态系统健康评价指标体系,综合运用专家判断法和熵权法确定评价因子权重,采用河流健康指数（RHI）表征香溪河流域水生态系统健康状况.结果表明:①2017年三峡水库蓄水期香溪河流域水生态系统整体健康水平为良好,优和良等级占比分别为12.5%和79.2%.②健康状况呈现出支流优于干流、非回水区优于回水区的空间分布特点,具体表现为支流南阳河>支流古夫河>支流高岚河>香溪河干流.干流水环境问题相对突出,而支流的河流连通性相对较差.③库湾健康状况的年内变化特征为冬季最好,春秋季次之,夏季最差.研究显示,该评价体系能准确地评估香溪河流域水生态健康状况,同时需重视三峡水库支流库湾的水环境治理.      

Habitat Split as a Cause of Local Population Declines of Amphibians with Aquatic Larvae

Abstract:  Most amphibian species have biphasic life histories and undergo an ontogenetic shift from aquatic to terrestrial habitats. In deforested landscapes, streams and forest fragments are frequently disjunct, jeopardizing the life cycle of forest-associated amphibians with aquatic larvae. We tested the impact of habitat split—defined as human-induced disconnection between habitats used by different life-history stages of a species—on four forest-associated amphibian species in a severely fragmented landscape of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We surveyed amphibians in forest fragments with and without streams (referred to as wet and dry fragments, respectively), including the adjacent grass-field matrix. Our comparison of capture rates in dry fragments and nearby streams in the matrix allowed us to evaluate the number of individuals that engaged in high-risk migrations through nonforested habitats. Adult amphibians moved from dry fragments to matrix streams at the beginning of the rainy season, reproduced, and returned at the end of the breeding period. Juveniles of the year moved to dry fragments along with adults. These risky reproductive migrations through nonforested habitats that expose individuals to dehydration, predation, and other hazards may cause population declines in dry fragments. Indeed, capture rates were significantly lower in dry fragments compared with wet fragments. Declining amphibians would strongly benefit from investments in the conservation and restoration of riparian vegetation and corridors linking breeding and nonbreeding areas.