Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

The control of water collection in honey bee colonies

A honey bee (Apis mellifera) colony adaptively controls the collection of water by its foragers, increasing it when high temperatures necesssitate evaporative cooling inside the hive and decreasing it when the danger of overheating passes. This study analyzes the mechanisms controlling water collection once it has begun, that is, how a colony's water collectors know whether to continue or stop their activity. M. Lindauer suggested that water collectors acquire information about their colony's need for more water by noting how easily they can unload their water to bees inside the hive. In support of this hypothesis, we found that a water collector's ease of unloading does indeed change when her colony's need for water changes. How does a water collector sense the ease of unloading? Multiple variables of the unloading experience change in relation to a colony's water need. Three time-based variables – initial search time, total search time, and delivery time – all change quite strongly. But what changes most strongly is the number of unloading rejections (refusals by receiver bees to take the water), suggesting that this is the primary index of ease of unloading. Why does a water collector's ease of unloading change when her colony's need for water changes? Evidently, what links these two variables is change in the number of water receivers. These are middle-aged bees that receive water just inside the hive entrance, then transport it deeper inside the hive, and finally smear it on the walls of cells or give it to other bees, or both. A colony increases the number of water receivers when its water need increases by having bees engaged in nectar reception and other tasks (and possibly also bees that are not working) switch to the task of water reception. Evidently the activation of additional water receivers does not strongly reduce the number of nectar receivers in a colony, since a colony can increase greatly its water collection without simultaneously decreasing its collection of rich nectar. This study provides a clear example of the way that the members of a social insect colony can use indirect indicators of their colony's labor needs to adaptively control the work that they perform.     

汽车尾气净化非贵金属催化剂SO2中毒机理研究

用TPD,IR,XPS等方法研究了汽车尾气净化的复合氧化物催化剂SO_2中毒机理。结果表明,催化剂SO_2中毒失(?),首先是SO_2在催化剂活性中心上进行化学吸附,然后部分SO_2与活性组分生成相应的亚硫酸盐和硫盐酸,从而使催化剂失活。SO_2的化学吸附及部分生成相应的亚硫酸盐,与生成硫酸盐相比,对催化剂失活的影响,前者更为明显。     

广州市污水污泥堆肥在环境绿化中的应用

将广州市大坦沙污水处理厂产生的脱水生污泥与粉煤灰、稻草按质量比例4∶1.2∶1混合堆制而成的污泥堆肥,堆肥总养分含量高于农家肥中的鸡粪,无论单独施用或与化肥结合使用应用于草坪等园林绿地,均有明显效果。污泥堆肥在草坪土壤应用的肥效试验表明,污泥堆肥与化肥结合使用效果较好,能缩短草坪草出苗和成坪时间,显著提高建植初期草坪草的生物量,但每公顷施用纯污泥堆肥30t与60t比较两者草坪草生物量没有显著差异;污泥堆肥施用污染风险初步分析表明,土壤中的重金属含量、渗滤液中的NO3--N和全P含量随着污泥堆肥施用量的增加而明显提高,考虑到广东地处热带、亚热带,雨量丰富且暴雨多,土壤呈酸性的特点,在园林绿地等相对封闭的体系中施用本项目堆制的污泥堆肥,只要将年施用量控制在30t/hm2以下,是基本安全的。     

基于动力学分析提高黑木耳多糖产量的pH控制策略

为了实现黑木耳(Auriculariaauricula)深层发酵生产胞外多糖的高产量和高生产强度的统一,在7L发酵罐中研究不同pH对A.auricula分批发酵生产黑木耳多糖的影响.A.auricula细胞生长的最适pH为5.0,而黑木耳胞外多糖合成的最适pH为5.5.恒定pH有利于合成黑木耳多糖,但降低了黑木耳多糖的生产强度.发酵液中较高的pH不利于葡萄糖的消耗,使得发酵结束时的残余葡萄糖含量随pH的升高而升高.分析不同pH条件下A.auricula发酵生产黑木耳多糖动力学参数,发现较低pH有利于加快底物消耗,而较高的细胞生长速率则出现在pH5.0,pH5.5时细胞则具有较高的胞外多糖合成速率和对葡萄糖的得率.在此基础上提出了A.auricula发酵生产黑木耳多糖的两阶段pH控制策略:0~48h控制发酵液pH5.0,48h后控制pH5.5.实验结果表明,采用两阶段pH控制策略,A.auricula胞外多糖产量比控制pH5.5时提高了8.1%,残留葡萄糖含量降低了15.2%,产生最大胞外多糖的时间缩短至96h,且黑木耳多糖的生产强度比pH5.5时提高了35.1%.图4表1参21     

Obtaining species: sample size considerations

Suppose fish are to be sampled from a stream. A fisheries biologist might ask one of the following three questions: ‘How many fish do I need to catch in order to see all of the species?’, ‘How many fish do I need to catch in order to see all species whose relative frequency is more than 5%?’, or ‘How many fish do I need to catch in order to see a member from each of the species A, B, and C?’. This paper offers a practical solution to such questions by setting a target sample size designed to achieve desired results with known probability. We present three sample size methods, one we call ‘exact’ and the others approximate. Each method is derived under assumed multinomial sampling, and requires (at least approximate) independence of draws and (usually) a large population. The minimum information needed to compute one of the approximate methods is the estimated relative frequency of the rarest species of interest. Total number of species is not needed. Choice of a sample size method depends largely on available computer resources. One approximation (called the ‘Monte Carlo approximation’) gets within ±6 units of exact sample size, but usually requires 20–30 minutes of computer time to compute. The second approximation (called the ‘ratio approximation’) can be computed manually and has relative error under 5% when all species are desired, but can be as much as 50% or more too high when exact sample size is small. Statistically, this problem is an application of the ‘sequential occupancy problem’. Three examples are given which illustrate the calculations so that a reader not interested in technical details can apply our results.     

城市大气污染治理规划方法

本文介绍了用于治理发展中国家城市大气污染的规划方法。它通过对城市大气污染的现状进行定量分析，确定主要污染分担源。用基础削减量、平权削减量、源强和经济优化削减量综合确定城市削减排放总量以及分配排放量的削减方案和筹集削减排放量的经费。     

城市河段污染控制灰色动态规划的应用

本文探讨了含灰数的城市河段污染控制的灰色动态规划的理论与方法。通过分析城市河段污染控制系统的广义不确定性，将灰数表征这些不确定性，建立了描述城市河段水污染控制的灰色动态规划中广义不确定性的灰数运算、灰数大小的比较及灰动态规划的初步理论和求解方法，通过对淮河蚌埠河段有机污染控制实例研究，说明了水污染控制灰色动态规划问题研究意义和求解方法的实用性。     

传统生存方式变迁对农村环境的影响

随着农村社会经济的发展,农户的生存方式开始逐步由传统的生存方式逐步转变为现代的生存方式。在具体的案例研究过程中,我们既可以看到传统生存方式的环境友好的一面,也可以看到传统生存方式变迁过程中农户经济行为变化对于农村环境的不利影响。与此同时,社会经济发展过程中,新的现代生产生活要素的介入,在不断使农户的生活逐步走向现代化的同时,也带来了种种环境问题。总之,农村环境问题的产生既有传统生存方式本身存在的问题,也来自于生存方式变迁过程中新的外部物质的介入,因此,对于农村环境的改善需要同时从这两方面着手,在改善农户生存方式的同时,更要从根本上控制外部的污染物质的介入。     

不同收获时期和控氮条件对水培小白菜硝酸盐含量的影响

在水培中采用收获前降低营养液浓度、完全停止供氮以及在不同时期采收等方法来研究小白菜硝酸盐含量的控制方式及其效果,结果表明:适时采收和收获前适当控氮可以降低小白菜的硝酸盐含量。在小白菜生长第26d左右硝酸盐含量最低,此后l~2d产量增长较快,此时采收品质较好;小白菜硝酸盐含量呈明显的日变化,并且与硝酸还原酶活性呈正相关,在下午16:00时左右采收硝酸盐含量最低,仅为894mg.kg-1;完全断氮7d后,小白菜硝酸盐含量显著降低,但产量也受到明显的影响。而采用低浓度营养液控氮4d左右采收既可控制硝酸盐含量又不会使产量过低。