MITIGATING IMPACTS OF A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON COLORADO RWER WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: We evaluated the effects of institutional responses developed for coping with a severe sustained drought (SSD) in the Colorado River Basin on selected system variables using a SSD inflow hydrology derived from the drought which occurred in the Colorado River basin from 1579–1616. Institutional responses considered are reverse equalization, salinity reduction, minimum flow requirements, and temporary suspension of the delivery obligation of the Colorado River Compact. Selected system variables (reservoir contents, streamflows, consumptive uses, salinity, and power generation) from scenarios incorporating the drought-coping responses were compared to those from Baseline conditions using the current operating criteria. The coping responses successfully mitigated some impacts of the SSD on consumptive uses in the Upper Basin with only slight impacts on consumptive uses in the Lower Basin, and successfully maintained specified minimum streamflows throughout the drought with no apparent effect on consumptive uses. The impacts of the coping responses on other system variables were not as clear cut. We also assessed the effects of the drought-coping responses to normal and wet hydrologic conditions to determine if they were overly conservative. The results show that the rules would have inconsequential effects on the system during normal and wet years.     

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF BMP EFFECTWENESS FOR CONTROLLING NITROGEN FROM URBAN NONPOINT SOURCES1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of urban Best Management Practices (BMPs) in achieving the No-Net-Increase Policy (NNTP), a policy designed to limit nonpoint nitrogen loading to Long Island Sound (US), is analyzed. A unit loading model is used to simulate annual nitrogen exported from the Norwalk River watershed (Connecticut) under current and future conditions. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis is used to incorporate uncertainty in nitrogen export coefficients and BMP nitrogen removal effectiveness. The inclusion of uncertainty in BMP effectiveness and nitrogen export coefficients implies that additional BMPs, or BMPs with a greater effectiveness in nitrogen removal, will be required to achieve the NNIP. Even though including uncertainty leads to an increase in BMP implementation rates or BMP effectiveness, this type of analysis provides the decision maker with a more realistic assessment of the likelihood that implementing BMPs as a management strategy will be successful. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that applying BMPs to new urban developments alone will not be sufficient to achieve the NNIP since BMPs are not 100 percent effective in removing the increase in nitrogen caused by urbanization. BMPs must also be applied to selected existing urban areas. BMPs with a nitrogen removal effectiveness of 40–60 percent, probably the highest level of removal that can be expected over an entire watershed, must be applied to at least 75 percent of the existing urban area to achieve the NNIP This high rate of application is not likely to be achieved in urbanized watersheds in the LIS watershed; therefore, additional point source control will be necessary to achieve the NNIP     

PHOSPHORUS MANAGEMENT TO PROTECT LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: The Hallett Quarry gravel pit lakes are an active sand and gravel extraction operation located 0.4 km north of the City of Ames, Iowa. During periods of drought, these lakes serve as a supplemental water supply for Ames. A modified version of the Vollenweider input-output model was used to predict future water quality under various watershed land use, drainage, and lake configurations. The dominant factor controlling the future water quality of the lakes was found to be the nutrient input. It is recommended that a management plan to protect the future water quality should be oriented towards reducing the sources of phosphorus to the lakes.     

Ecological approach to resource survey and planning for environmentally significant Areas: The ABC method

A resource survey and planning method for parks, reserves, and other environmentally significant areas (ESAs) is presented in the context of a holistic balanced approach to land use and environmental management. This method provides a framework for the acquisition, analysis, presentation, and application of diverse ecological data pertinent to land use planning and resource management within ESAs. Through the independent analysis and subsequent integration of abiotic, biotic, and cultural or ABC information, land areas within an ESA are identified in terms of their relative environmental significance and environmental constraints. The former term encompasses wildlife, historic, and other resource values, while the latter term reflects biophysical hazards and sensitivities, and land use conflicts. The method thus calls for a matching of an ESA's distinctive attributes with appropriate land use and institutional arrancements through an analysis of available acts, regulations, agencies, and other conservation and land use management mechanisms. The method culminates with a management proposal showing proposed park or reserve allocations, buffer areas, or other land use controls aimed at preserving an ESA's special ecological qualities, while providing for resource development. The authors suggest that all resource management decisions affecting ESA's should be governed by a philosophical stance that recognizes a spectrum of broad land use types, ranging from preservation to extractive use and rehabilitation.     

AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES FOR CONTROLLING AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION1

An economic analysis of nonpoint source pollution management was conducted for the Nansemond River and Chuckatuck Creek watersheds in Southeast Virginia. The potential effects of alternative public policies on farm income, land use, and pollution loadings were investigated. Regulatory programs could have quite different impacts depending on which pollutant is targeted. Cost-share rates greater than 50 percent would have little additional effect on pollution from crop enterprises, but would reduce pollution from livestock     

Grass carp status in the United States: A review

Grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella Val.) were introduced into the United States in 1963 as potential biological control agents for nuisance aquatic weeds. Since that time an oftentimes bitter controversy has raged over its effects on sportfishing, and its possible natural reproduction and naturalization in North America. This review considers the history, ecology, and present status of grass carp in the United States in light of the voluminous scientific research conducted since its importation. Particular attention is given to the role of grass carp in the fisheries management plans of Arkansas. Recent development of a sterile, triploid grass carp hybrid may lead to widespread use of grass carp to control nuisance aquatic weeds in culturally eutrophicated waters of the United States.     

NUMERICAL MODELING OF SALTWATER INTRUSION IN THE NORTHERN GUAM LENS1

ABSTRACT This paper deals with the application of a two-dimensional, saltwater intrusion model to the aquifer in Northern Guam. The model used finite element theory and the Galerkin, weighted-residual technique as its basis. The Northern Guam lens was discretized into 299 linear, triangular elements and 189 nodes. The model was calibrated using 1978 hydrologic data. The output of the model was compared with measured water levels in six observation wells. The calibrated values of permeability and porosity were then used to verify the model using 1979 data. A calibrated and verified model can be used to make an infinite variety of management and planning studies. In this study, three applications are provided that would be considered typical management runs. Steady state runs were made to compare the four conditions of no pumping, 1978 pumping levels, twice 1978 pumping levels, and five times 1978 pumping levels. The water levels due to these conditions are shown in plan and in cross sections of the aquifer. The effect of zero recharge to the aquifer is next demonstrated for the pumping levels existing during 1978. The final run shows how long the aquifer takes to reach steady state when the pumping rate is increased from the 1978 pumping level to twice that value. The program can be used for numerous other studies for management and planning purposes.     

WATER YIELD AUGMENTATION THROUGH FOREST AND RANGE MANAGEMENT - ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE1

The demand for more water is increasing throughout the country. Research on upland watersheds clearly demonstrates that water yield can be increased using forest and range management practices. Based on the experience of the past several decades and a review of six papers in a recent AWRA series on water yield augmentation through vegetation management, the following issues and concerns are discussed: predicting increased yields from large basins; economic evaluation of additional flows; court acceptance and need for system models; the legal question of ownership and transferability of increased yields; and management emphasis on private and federal lands. The immediate potential for water yield augmentation is on carefully selected watersheds that have the bio-physical potential to produce high value water under environmentally acceptable multiple use management. We predict water yield management on a broader scale will result from increased pressures to solve the legal and economic issues involved.     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

National policies for biosphere greenhouse gas management: issues and opportunities

Biosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) management consists of preserving and enhancing terrestrial carbon pools and producing biomass as a fossil fuel substitute. The discussion of this topic has focused primarily on carbon-accounting and project-level issues, particularly relating to carbon sequestration as a source of emissions credits under the Kyoto Protocol. While international consensus on these matters is needed, this paper argues that an important domestic policy agenda also deserves attention. National policies for biosphere GHG management are necessary to bring about large-scale changes in land-use, forestry, and agricultural practices and can address some of the technical and policy issues that have proven to be particularly problematic from carbon-accounting and project-level perspectives. These policies should minimize land-use and resource-management conflicts, account for collateral benefits, and ensure institutional compatibility with existing resource-management regimes. Issues relating to project permanence, leakage, and transaction costs should also be addressed. A range of policy instruments should be used and biosphere GHG management should be one component of an integrated approach to environmental and resource management. Countries promoting biosphere GHG management as an important element of their climate change strategies should be developing these domestic policies to complement international negotiations and to demonstrate that carbon sequestration and biomass production can make an effective contribution to the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations.