IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

基于模糊信息概率区间数的突发地质灾害降水因子评价研究

根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录,基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明:突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小,基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析;累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显,特别是5~10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60%以上,可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警;加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升,与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。     

鄂尔多斯周缘地震带中长期地震趋势估计

本文基于一定的地震资料,分别应用最大熵原理、贝努里概型以及计算地震复发周期的经验关系式,对鄂尔多斯周缘地震带进行了中强地震的中长期地震趋势估计。     

基于UAHP的采空区稳定性模糊综合评判

为准确评判矿山采空区稳定性等级,通过分析采空区稳定性各影响因素,确定地质、水文、采空区几何参数、环境等4个2级指标为影响其稳定性的主要因素。运用层次分析法(AHP)并结合模糊数学理论,建立采空区稳定性2级模糊综合评判模型。用区间数表示评判结果,分析处理评判矩阵得到专家评判的相似度和差异度,进而获取专家评判的可信度,建立基于不确定型层次分析法(UAHP)的采空区稳定性模糊评判方法。实例计算结果表明:在Ⅰ级评判指标中,地质构造、周围开采影响、地下水活动程度、跨度对采空区稳定性影响较大;用该采空区的稳定性等级为Ⅱ级。用该方法能得出各影响因素的综合权重,准确评判采空区稳定性等级。     

Social and ecological factors affecting paternity allocation in American robins with overlapping broods

Factors that affect extra-pair mating in birds are likely to vary across the breeding season. Changing densities of active nests may alter the opportunities for extra-pair mating, and parental duties may alter a male’s opportunity to guard his mate from extra-pair mating. The latter affects species with multiple broods, where males care for fledglings from first nests while females initiate second nests. We studied a population of multi-brooded American robins (Turdus migratorius) to assess how seasonal changes in nesting density and changes in mate-guarding opportunity influenced paternity patterns over successive breeding attempts. Extra-pair paternity (EPP) occurred in 71.9% of broods and accounted for 48.1% of young. High nesting densities in the study population may explain the high overall rate of EPP, but seasonal variation in breeding density did not explain patterns of EPP among nests. Contrary to the predictions of the mate-guarding hypothesis, EPP did not increase in the second nests that followed successful first nests, and the percentage of extra-pair young in second nests did not decline as the overlap between successive nests increased. The fact that EPP was actually lower when the interval between clutches was shorter suggests that the sooner the males can assume sole care of first broods and allow their mates to renest (indicative of superior paternal quality), the more paternity they realize in the next nest. These results suggest that mate-guarding opportunity does not influence paternity in this population of American robins and that female robins may allocate paternity based on their assessment of male parental performance at first nests.     

Factors influencing length of maternal care in brown bears (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ursus arctos</Emphasis>) and its effect on offspring

Length of maternal care, i.e. the interval between successfully raised litters, is the most important factor explaining the variation in reproductive rate among brown-bear (Ursus arctos) populations. In this paper, we examine the variation in length of maternal care in radio-marked brown bears and its effect on their offspring in northern Sweden. Young stayed with their mothers for 1.4–1.5 or 2.4–2.5 (in one case 3.5) years and were weaned with body masses varying from 17 to 69 kg. The probability of yearling litters staying with their mother for a 2nd year increased with decreasing yearling body mass, and was higher for litters with two offspring than for litters with one or three to four offspring. Staying with their mothers for a 2nd year had a positive effect on mass gain in yearlings and this effect was more pronounced in litters with two than three to four offspring. Body mass of 2-year-olds was not related to age of weaning, suggesting that keeping offspring for an additional year mainly compensated for low yearling body mass. If large offspring body mass positively affects later offspring survival and reproduction, mothers may be able to optimize the length of maternal care according to the litter size and the size of their yearlings.Communicated by F. Trillmich     

Resampling from stochastic simulations

To model the uncertainty of an estimate of a global property, the estimation process is repeated on multiple simulated fields, with the same sampling strategy and estimation algorithm. As opposed to conventional bootstrap, this resampling scheme allows for spatially correlated data and the common situation of preferential and biased sampling. The practice of this technique is developed on a large data set where the reference sampling distributions are available. Comparison of the resampled distributions to that reference shows the probability intervals obtained by resampling to be reasonably accurate and conservative, provided the original and actual sample has been corrected for the major biases induced by preferential sampling.Andre G. Journel is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Stanford University with a joint appointment in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences. He is, also, Director of the Stanford Center for Reservoir Forecasting. Professor Journel has pioneered applications of geostatistical techniques in the mining/petroleum industry and extended his expertise to environmental applications and repository site characterization. Most notably, he developed the concept of non-parametric geostatistics and stochastic imaging with application to modeling uncertainty in reservoir/site characterization. Although the research described in this article has been supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement CR819407, it has not been subjected to Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

The predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis manipulates imprinting among offspring through egg placement

A crucial question with respect to imprinting is how animals ensure that kin imprint on kin but not on non-kin. Imprinting takes place in a sensitive ontogenetic phase, usually in an early period of life or when offspring are produced, at which time the recipient imprints on the first referents met. In the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis, imprinting among immature individuals happens in the larval stage immediately after hatching. I tested the hypothesis that adult P. persimilis females manipulate offspring imprinting by influencing the likelihood of encounters among recipients and referents via egg placement and egg aggregation. I conducted two experiments, one of which addressed imprinting and cannibalism, and the other addressed egg placement and egg aggregation. The imprinting experiment suggests that larvae imprint on any conspecific individual met in a sensitive ontogenetic phase and later on treat this individual as kin, irrespective of relatedness. After molting to protonymphs, imprinted individuals preferentially cannibalized unfamiliar to familiar larvae. Irrespective of familiarity, kin were cannibalized earlier than non-kin, suggesting the involvement of self-referent phenotype matching. The egg-placement experiment provides evidence that females adjust the aggregation level of their own eggs according to the degree of relatedness to present eggs from a previously ovipositing female. Both experiments in concert suggest that egg placement is a maternal strategy influencing imprinting among immature individuals. Apart from avoiding kin cannibalism, egg placement and imprinting by larvae may have relevance to other behaviors influenced by kin recognition, such as mate choice, prey-patch choice and dispersal.Communicated by L. Simmons     

温度对多孔射气介质氡析出影响试验研究

为了研究围岩中温度对氡析出率的影响,选取某铀矿铀尾矿矿砂试样,根据相似准则设计并制作了测量多孔射气介质氡析出率的室内试验装置。采用RAD-7氡测量仪,运用等时间间隔取样方法测量氡浓度。采用对照试验的方法研究了温度对多孔射气介质氡析出率的影响规律。试验结果表明,在自然压力下,在温度为20℃到60℃范围内,随着温度的升高,多孔介质氡析出率逐渐增大,并且氡析出率与温度符合线性函数关系。