安全仪表系统的性能维护及指标值计算

安全仪表系统（SIS）作为保障工业生产安全的重要措施,需要在危险发生时正确地执行其安全功能,采取有效措施维持安全仪表系统在运行阶段的性能是保障系统功能安全的关键。详细阐明了SIS在运行阶段应遵循风险评估分析、安全功能分配文件、安全要求规范、安全分析报告、安全完整性等级符合性等重要文档中的要求,给出了维持SIS安全完整性的主要活动,并在加强旁路、禁止和超驰控制管理,对SIS失效的响应、记录和分析,进行定期检查、维护和功能测试以及安全仪表系统的变更管理等方面提出了要求。提出了SIS的安全性能指标及目标值的简易计算方法,给出失效率更新流程、计算方法和功能安全测试间隔调整技术。所提的技术方法为如何保证安全仪表系统运行阶段的安全性能提供了有力指导,其可操作性强,便于在实际工程中进行应用。     

瓦斯浓度区间预测的灰色聚类与高斯过程模型

为有效分析矿井瓦斯监测数据,以实现准确、可靠的瓦斯浓度预测,基于灰色关联聚类分析与高斯过程回归模型,研究瓦斯浓度时间序列分析与预测的方法。以预测有效度为预测精度的评估指标来动态确定重构瓦斯浓度时间序列样本空间的维数;应用灰色关联分析方法将瓦斯浓度时间序列划分成若干样本集,将其中具有关联特征的样本作为虚拟变量进行预测以消除因随机、不确定因素干扰而引起的预测误差;应用高斯过程回归模型实现瓦斯浓度区间预测,将预测结果表示成一个具有较高可信度的取值区间,以此表达对未来一段时间内瓦斯浓度动态变化情况的预测。实例分析表明:预测结果准确、可靠,能够较好地反映瓦斯浓度的实际变化状况。     

基于区间层次分析法的石油库防火防爆安全评价

为准确反应石油库防火防爆安全状态,给石油库安全管理工作提供科学依据,应用区间层次分析法(IAHP)对石油库进行防火防爆安全评价。通过分析石油库防火防爆安全影响因素,构建3级安全评价层次结构体系。针对专家构造判断矩阵时决策的不确定性,采用区间数来描述因素之间的两两比较,应用区间特征根法(IEM)求出12项评判指标的区间权重向量及权重总排序。研究表明:影响石油库防火防爆安全状态最大的4个因素依次为:消防灭火设备状态、技术设备状态、防静电设备状态和工艺设备状态。评价结果与石油库的实际安全状况相符。     

Multiple paternity and individual variation in sperm precedence in the simultaneously hermaphroditic land snail Arianta arbustorum

Intraspecific variation in the proportion of offspring sired by the second mate with a female (P₂) is an aspect of sperm competition that has received little attention. I examined the effects of delay between copulations (range 9–380 days) and size of sperm donor on sperm precedence in double-mated individuals of the simultaneously hermaphroditic land snail Arianta arbustorum. Using shell colour as a genetic marker, paternity was analysed in 132 broods produced by 35 snails that had mated with two partners of different genotype. Sperm precedence (P₂) was influenced by the time between the two matings when the mating delay exceeded 70 days (one reproductive season). P2 averaged 0.34 in the first brood of snails that mated twice within 70 days indicating first mate sperm precedence. In contrast, P₂ averaged 0.76 in broods of snails that remated in the following season, indicating a decreased viability of sperm from the first mate. The size of sperm-donating individuals had no effect on the fertilization success of their sperm in the first brood produced after the second copulation. Analysis of long-term sperm utilization in 23 snails that laid three to nine egg batches over 2 years revealed striking differences among individuals. Five snails (21.7%) exhibited first-mate sperm precedence throughout, eight snails (34.8%) showed second-mate sperm precedence throughout, whereas ten snails (43.5%) exhibited sperm mixing in successive batches. It is suggested that the individual variation in sperm precedence in A. arbustorum may partly be due to differences in the amount of sperm transferred. Paternity analysis in 34 batches laid by 19 wild-caught individuals of A. arbustorum indicated that at least 12 snails (63.2%) used sperm from two or more mates for the fertilization of their eggs. This suggests a high incidence of multiple paternity in broods of A. arbustorum under field conditions.     

基于区间数排序的水环境质量评价方法研究

目的：地表水水质随季节性变化较大,为了更准确地评价某地区全年地表水环境质量,尝试将不确定多属性决策方法中的区间数排序法用于水质评价。方法：将地表水环境质量标准值与不同时期的水质监测数据分别定义为区间数,利用区间数比较的可能度公式,得出两者可能度关系并进行排序。排序结果显示,浑河东陵大桥处2006年水质劣于地表水V类标准值的可能度为0．531,即2006年浑河东陵大桥处水质为劣V类。结论：基于区间数排序的地表水环境质量评价方法考虑了全年不同时期的水质变化情况,与模糊综合评判法得出的结果基本一致,可比较准确地评价某地区全年水质状况。     

An interval joint-probabilistic programming method for solid waste management: a case study for the city of Tianjin, China

Currently, environmental protection and resources conservation continue to be challenges faced by solid-waste managers in China. These challenges are being further compounded by rapid socioeconomic devel- opment and population growth associated with increased waste generation rates and decreased waste disposal capacities. In response to these challenges, an interval joint-probabilistic mixed-integer programming （IJMP） method is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste management activities in the city of Tianjin, which is one of the largest municipalities in the northern part of China. In the IJMP, joint probabilistic constraints are introduced into an interval-parameter mixed-integer programming framework, such that uncertainties presented in terms of interval values and random variables can be reflected. Moreover, a number of violation levels for the waste-management-capacity constraints are examined, which can facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs among economic objective and system-failure risk. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the city＇s existing waste-management practices and the long- term planning of the city＇s waste-management facilities.     

An interval dynamic multimedia fugacity (IDMF) model for environmental fate of PAHs and their source apportionment in a typical oilfield,China

An interval dynamic multimedia fugacity (IDMF) model with a new validation criterion of interval average logarithmic residual error (IALRE) was developed in this study. The environmental fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their source apportionment in a typical oilfield of China were simulated from 1985 to 2010. The PAH concentrations predicted by the model were in agreement with the measured concentrations, which were indicated by the IALREs calculated at 0.41, 0.63, 0.52, and 0.58 for air, water, soil, and sediment, respectively. The multimedia concentrations of Σ16 PAHs were 29.55, 39.22, 31.98, and 26.69 times greater in 2010 than those in 1985, and were higher than any other year modelled. Additionally, 87.82% of PAHs remained in the soil in 2010. PAH source emission into the soil was the major modelled source, whereas PAH degradation in the air was the major modelled loss pathway; the dominant transfer process between the adjacent compartments was atmospheric deposition from air to soil. It was demonstrated that high-temperature combustion was the major source of PAHs in the air and soil, whereas biomass and coal combustion were attributed to water and sediment compartments. The IDMF model was effective in the dynamic source apportionment of PAHs.     

地铁检票闸机通过能力研究

检票闸机是地铁车站的重要设施之一,其通过能力的大小对车站客流的疏运起着十分重要的作用。对晚高峰时刻客流进行视频录像,采用逐帧回放的方式,统计乘客属性、闸机属性、统计乘客连续检票刷卡的间隔时间和乘客通过闸机的时间,采用SPSS统计分析软件进行数据分析,计算乘客通过闸机速度和闸机通过能力。     

基于熵权法-CIM模型的高速公路施工临近房屋安全风险评价

为了评估高速公路施工对临近房屋的安全影响,基于房屋因素、施工技术与管理因素、房屋周边环境因素,提出了高速公路施工临近房屋安全风险评价指标体系。以某高速公路施工临近10处房屋为研究对象,采用基于熵权法-CIM模型的混合安全风险评价方法,首先计算指标权重;再以其中1处房屋为例,确定其安全风险概率,结果表明:该处房屋安全风险总体较高,基本符合工程施工中的监测结果。     

区间数多属性决策在飞机一发失效应急程序方案优选中的应用

针对在飞机一发失效应急程序方案的选择中,很多定量因素难以精确量化的问题,将区间数多属性决策运用到飞机一发失效应急程序方案的优选中,构建了评价指标体系。此评价指标体系应用基于理想解的区间数多属性决策的相对隶属度法来选择最佳方案,该方法通过计算并查找现有方案的相对隶属度最大值来确定最佳方案。最后举例说明如何在实际中使用此方法。