EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS IN PRECIPITATION MODELS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Recent work has found that a one-parameter Weibull model of wet day precipitation amount based on the Weibull distribution provides a better fit to historical daily precipitation data for eastern U.S. sites than other one-parameter models. The general two-parameter Weibull distribution was compared in this study to other widely used distributions for describing the distribution of daily precipitation event sizes at 99 sites from the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Surprisingly little performance was sacrificed by reducing the two-parameter Weibull to a single-parameter distribution. Advantages of the single-parameter model included requiring only the mean wet day precipitation amount for calibration, invertibility for simulation purposes, and ease of analytical manipulation. The fit of the single-parameter Weibull to the 99 stations included in this study was significantly better than other single-parameter models tested, and performed as well as the widely endorsed, more cumbersome, two-parameter gamma model. Both the one-and two-parameter Weibull distributions are shown to have b-moments that are consistent with historical precipitation data, while the ratio of b-skew and b-variance in the gamma model is inconsistent with the historical recerd by this measure. In addition, it was found that the two-parameter gamma distribution was better fit using the method of moments estimators than maximum likelihood estimates. These findings suggested that the distribution in precipitation among sites in the Pacific Northwest with dramatically different settings are nearly identical if expressed in proportion to the mean site event size.     

Environmental Values and Popular Conflict over Environmental Management: A Comparative Analysis of Public Comments on the Clinton Forest Plan

/ Public participation in environmental management decisions has frequently led to conflict. This paper examines the role of environmental values in fueling these conflicts, based on a data base and sample content analysis of written public comments solicited in 1994 regarding the highly contentious Clinton Forest Plan (also known as Option 9) proposed for management of federal forests in the US Pacific Northwest. The analysis considered whether those respondents favoring more versus less environmental protection than was offered in Option 9 held entirely different values, identifying which antagonistic values appeared to be most fundamental and where (if at all) values consensus occurred. It also compared values emanating from respondents within and outside the affected region, although few major differences were detected in this regard. Results suggest that strong values differences did exist among those preferring greater versus less environmental protection, in particular as concerned the extent, form, and spatial and temporal scope of justification of their positions, their ideas of forests, and the appropriate role of people in forest management. Disagreement concerned far more than purely environmental values: a major point of difference involved human benefits and harms of the proposed forest plan. Indeed, both sides' positions were overridingly anthropocentric and consequentialist-a values orientation that almost inevitably spells conflict in light of the commonly differentiated social impacts of environmental management decisions. Although public involvement in environmental management thus cannot be expected to lead to a clear and consensual social directive, the Pacific Northwest case suggests that viable environmental management solutions that take this range of values into account can still be crafted.KEY WORDS: Environmental values; Public participation; Clinton Forest Plan; Pacific Northwest     

Atmospheric mercury over the marine boundary layer observed during the third China Arctic Research Expedition

TGM measurements on board ships have proved to provide valuable complementary information to measurements by a ground based monitoring network. During the third China Arctic Research Expedition (from July 11 to September 24, 2008), TGM concentrations over the marine boundary layer along the cruise path were in-situ measured using an automatic mercury vapor analyzer. Here we firstly reported the results in Japan Sea, North Western Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea, where there are rare reports. The value ranged between 0.30 and 6.02 ng/m³ with an average of (1.52 ± 0.68) ng/m³, being slightly lower than the background value of Northern Hemisphere (1.7 ng/m³). Notably TGM showed considerably spatial and temporal variation. Geographically, the average value of TGM in Bering Sea was higher than those observed in Japan Sea and North Western Pacific Ocean. In the north of Japan Sea TGM levels were found to be lower than 0.5 ng/m³ during forward cruise and displayed obviously diurnal cycle, indicating potential oxidation of gaseous mercury in the atmosphere. The pronounced episode was recorded as well. Enhanced levels of TGM were observed in the coastal regions of southern Japan Sea during backward cruise due primarily to air masses transported from the adjacent mainland reflecting the contribution from anthropogenic sources. When ship returned back and passed through Kamchatka Peninsula TGM increased by the potential contamination from volcano emissions.     

基于LM-BP神经网络的Argo数据西北太平洋海水温度模型

以2007年西北太平洋海域Argo海表面温度、经纬度、深度为输入参数,利用LM-BP神经网络,构建了西北太平洋海水温度模型。将均方根差以及Pearson相关性系数作为检验指标,利用2008年和2009年的Argo数据对模型进行了检验。检验结果为:2008年均方根误差为0.714 0℃,Pearson相关性系数为0.996 8;2009年均方根误差为0.761 5℃,Pearson相关性系数为0.9965。表明所建立的基于LM-BP神经网络的Argo数据西北太平洋海水温度模型是可行的。     

Benthic Impacts of Intertidal Oyster Culture, with Consideration of Taxonomic Sufficiency

An investigation of the impacts from elevated intertidal Pacific oyster culture in a New Zealand estuary showed enhanced sedimentation beneath culture racks compared with other sites. Seabed elevation beneath racks was generally lower than between them, suggesting that topographic patterns more likely result from a local effect of rack structures on hydrodynamic processes than from enhanced deposition. Compared with control sites, seabed sediments within the farm had a greater silt/clay and organic content, and a lower redox potential and shear strength. While a marked trend in macrofaunal species richness was not evident, species composition and dominance patterns were consistent with a disturbance gradient, with farm effects not evident 35 m from the perimeter of the racks. Of the environmental variables measured, sediment shear strength was most closely associated with the distribution and density of macrofauna, suggesting that human-induced disturbance from farming operations may have contributed to the biological patterns. To evaluate the taxonomic sufficiency needed to document impacts, aggregation to the family level based on Linnean classification was compared with an aggregation scheme based on `general groups' identifiable with limited taxonomic expertise. Compared with species-level analyses, spatial patterns of impact were equally discernible at both aggregation levels used, provided density rather than presence/absence data were used. Once baseline conditions are established and the efficacy of taxonomic aggregation demonstrated, a `general group' scheme provides an appropriate and increasingly relevant tool for routine monitoring.     

Population dynamics of splitnose rockfish (Sebastes diploproa) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

We developed an age-structured population model of splitnose rockfish, Sebastes diploproa, in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Splitnose rockfish is a bycatch species that co-occurs with several commercially important species that are currently declared overfished. Bycatch species are typically not the focus of stock assessment efforts because of their limited economic importance, but they may suffer the same population declines as species with which they co-occur. To examine the dynamics of splitnose rockfish for the first time, we analyzed data from three groundfish fisheries and four research surveys conducted in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. To develop a model, we used Stock Synthesis, a statistical framework for the construction of a population dynamics models utilizing both fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data. In the model, we reconstructed the total catch of the species back to 1900, estimated the dynamics of the stock spawning output and recruitment and evaluated biomass depletion relative to the stock's unfished state, as well as sources of uncertainty in model outputs. The results indicate that the splitnose rockfish is currently not overfished even though it has experienced several periods of abrupt decline in its biomass. Revisiting age data from earlier years, monitoring fishery discard, and investigating the spatial dynamics of splitnose rockfish is important to further improve the understanding of this species’ population dynamics, and decrease uncertainty in model results.     

High genetic diversity of the symbiotic dinoflagellates in the coral Pocillopora meandrina from the South Pacific

Symbioses between dinoflagellates in the genus Symbiodinium (commonly referred to as zooxanthellae) and scleractinian corals are an essential feature for the maintenance of coral reefs. The fine-scale diversity and population structure of the zooxanthellae inhabiting the coral Pocillopora meandrina, a major reef building species in Polynesia, was examined. We used two polymorphic microsatellites to study seven populations from the South Pacific, whose host structuring has been previously investigated. The symbionts of P. meandrina showed high levels of diversity, with more than one zooxanthella genotype being identified in most of the host individuals. Genetic differentiation between symbiont populations was detected at a large scale (2,000 km) between the Tonga and the Society Archipelagos. Within the Society Archipelago, the two most remote populations (Tahiti and Bora-Bora; 200 km apart) were only weakly differentiated from each other. Statistical tests demonstrated that the symbiont genetic structure was not correlated with that of its host, suggesting that dispersal of the symbionts, whether they are transported within a host larva or free in the water, depends mainly on distance and water currents. In addition, the data suggests that hosts may acquire new symbionts after maternal transmission, possibly following a disturbance event. Lastly, the weak differentiation between symbiont populations of P. verrucosa and P. meandrina, both from Moorea, indicated that there was some host-symbiont fine-scale specificity detectable at the genetic resolution offered by microsatellites.     

北太平洋海洋生态系统的动力——以胶州湾为例

通过剖析浮游植物生长特征和其集群结构与Si的重要性、Si的输入过程和生物地球化学过程以及Si限制浮游植物时间,揭示了在北太平洋的近岸水域,从秋天的雨季结束(11月)到春天的雨季开始(5月)之前,Si都限制浮游植物的生长,在北太平洋的远离近岸水域,浮游植物生长一直都受到Si的限制;探讨北太平洋风场变化的基本特点和规律与中国的沙尘暴发生、频率和强度,首次提出了北太平洋水域Si的提供系统,并且用框图模型说明了提供系统在运行过程中的每个流程。当北太平洋缺少Si时,该系统就向其水体输入大量的Si,来维持了北太平洋海洋生态系统的持续发展;为了补充输送到海洋的Si量减少,该系统提高了运行能力,造成内陆干旱、沙化面积扩大、沙尘暴强度增大。研究结果表明,在北太平洋水域,北太平洋的季风与北太平洋边缘的雨季在时间上密切相嵌,顺利完成近岸洪水和河流的输送与大气的输送之间的相互转换,一直保持向大海的水体输入大量的Si。而且,沙尘暴与北太平洋Si的缺乏在时间上紧密配合,其强度大小与Si缺乏的严重程度相一致。因此,人类在制定应对自然灾害的政策和战略时,要从人类的角度和地球的角度来共同考虑,有利于人类的健康生存,更应该有利于地球生态系统的持续发展。     

北太平洋地区沙尘沉降与海洋生物兴衰的关系

通过对2001年4月中亚强沙尘暴过程在中国、韩国、日本和北美大陆地面PM10观测结果进行统计分析,推算出了北太平洋PAPA地区的沙尘沉降通量,结合同期PAPA地区的海洋表层有机碳和叶绿素观测结果,探讨了北太平洋沙尘与海洋生物兴衰的关系.结果表明,本次强沙尘暴过程可以给PAPA地区带去大约3.1～5.8μg/m³的风成Fe元素,它激发了海洋生物泵,引起海洋浮游植物的快速繁盛.