瓦斯爆炸过程中火焰瞬时传播规律研究

在改善后的瓦斯爆炸试验条件下,为了得到任意位置的火焰传播速度,对火焰通过各传感器所处的位置与其对应时间进行统计分析,发现可以用二次抛物线方程来表达火焰传播距离与其对应时间之间的关系,由此推导火焰瞬时传播速度随管道位置变化的关系式,得到管道任意位置及任意时刻的火焰速度计算公式。研究发现:瓦斯爆炸火焰传播运动过程近似于匀加速直线运动过程;当加螺旋环时火焰传播过程接近于匀速直线运动。随着管道长度的不断增大,火焰瞬时速度不断增加,但增加的幅度越来越小,当管道长度达到某值后,火焰速度将趋于某一定值。煤矿井下可根据各点计算得出的火焰速度大小,采用相应的预防措施,减少瓦斯爆炸造成的损失。     

PE微塑料对土壤水分入渗的影响及入渗模型适宜性评价

为探究微塑料对土壤水分入渗过程的影响,通过室内土柱模拟试验,设置5组微塑料添加处理(0,1,2,4,6g/kg),研究了不同微塑料含量对湿润锋运移和累积入渗量的影响,并进一步评价了主要入渗模型在微塑料污染土壤中的适用性.结果表明,湿润锋运移速率随着微塑料含量的增加呈现出先减小后增加的特征,当含量达到T2时(微塑料含量2...     

Uncovering the evolution of tin use in the United States and its implications

• US tin use decreases as the GDP value added by manufacturing sector increases. • Global and China’s tin use increases as the GDP added by manufacturing increases. • A sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well. • US tin use patterns is not due to the finite tin reserves or resources. • Policies, substitutions, etc. play key roles in the changing tin use patterns. Tin is of key importance to daily life and national security; it is considered an essential industrial metal. The United States (US) is the world’s largest economy and consumer of natural resources. Therefore, the analysis of historical tin use in the US is helpful for understanding future tin use trends in the world as a whole and in developing countries. Time series analysis, regression analysis with GDP or GDP/capita, and historical data fitted with logistic and Gompertz models are employed in this study. Historical tin use in the US shows three stages—increase-constant-decrease, as GDP per capita has increased. Tin use in the US is negatively correlated with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector, while the use of tin worldwide and in China continues to increase along with the GDP value added by the manufacturing sector. Although a sigmoid curve can fit the US tin use data well, that use is not directly related to the limited tin reserves or resources. Rather, policies, economic restructuring, substitutions, new end-use markets, etc. have played key roles in the changing tin use patterns. This work contributes to understanding future tin use at both the global and national levels: tin use will continue to increase with GDP at the global level, but use patterns of tin at the national level can be changed through human intervention.     

基于空间拟合和神经网络的机场噪声预测集成模型

将集成学习方法引入到机场噪声预测中,提出一种基于空间拟合和神经网络的机场噪声预测集成模型.该模型采用空间拟合算法和BP神经网络算法构建基学习器,然后通过所提出的基于观察学习的异构集成算法将基学习器集成起来,获得集成的机场噪声预测结果.该模型通过集成多个异构机场噪声预测基学习器,能够有效提升预测准确率.实验结果表明,本文所提出的基于观察学习的异构集成算法,较之其他异构集成算法,在解决机场噪声预测问题上准确性更高、容错性更强.     

垃圾渗滤液层状砂箱参数拟合试验及模拟

基于相似模拟条件,研究了垃圾渗滤液污染物在层状含水层中运移规律,通过数值模拟方法拟合了层状含水层的渗透性及弥散度,利用拟合参数分析了阜新垃圾填埋场有机污染物在地下环境中的迁移和时空分布规律,该实验和数值模型较好地反映了层状土中污染物渗漏的基本特征,对预测、控制渗滤液污染地下水提供了一种有效的方法。     

金水河流域矿物元素生物地球化学交换模式

通过对金水河流域矿物元素生物地球化学交换模式的研究,得到以下结论：（1）在不同空间位置的矿物元素对河水的水质贡献率不相同。河水成分贡献主要来源于硅酸盐风化,在金水河流域生态系统不同空间位置矿物元素对河水水质贡献率方程为：YRiverwater=0.242＋0.203 XRain＋0172 XLitter＋0.471 XSoilwater（r2=0.55）。（2）固-液相界面（土壤-土壤水溶液）离子交换过程拟合表明：离子交换过程符合二、三次曲线模型。（3）区域内碳酸盐岩含较少的Na＋和K＋,且受酸雨等影响。Na＋在土壤-土壤溶液之间的分配行为可能加重土壤盐碱化的趋势。土壤和枯枝落叶层HCO3-和TDS值均处于稳定的范围内。（4）输入性污染分析表明,流域内土壤基本表现出物理性质改善;但却表现出贫养化和生物地球化学性质恶化的极化趋势。人为活动输入污染物影响显著,在全球变化背景下,酸雨和干旱加剧了水溶液组成的变化。     

Impact of bias in predicted height on tree volume estimation: A case-study of intrinsic nonlinearity

Bias originating from intrinsic nonlinearity in nonlinear models is caused by excess curvature in the solution locus of parameter estimates derived from least squares procedures. Bias due to intrinsic nonlinearity varies according to sample size as well as model specification. This paper analyses consequences of fractionising data into smaller sub-samples. Based on measurements of stem diameter and total tree height from the first Danish national forest inventory, it is demonstrated how data splitting at random may cause the intrinsic nonlinear curvature to exceed the critical F-value. Application of a Taylor-series expansion shows that, for all practical purposes, the bias in predictions of individual tree volume (based on stem diameter and tree height) is negligible. To minimize residual variance, intrinsic curvature and, in turn, prediction bias, it is recommended that data be stratified according to site conditions, stand characteristics or other relevant criteria. Finally, the preferred model should exhibit close-to-linear behaviour.     

Studying ecological communities from a neutral standpoint: A review of models’ structure and parameter estimation

Neutral models provide an alternative to niche-based assembly rules of ecological communities by assuming that communities’ properties are shaped by the stochastic interplay between ecological drift, migration and speciation. The recent and ongoing interest about neutral assumptions has produced many developments on the theoretical side, with nevertheless limited echoes in terms of analyses of real-world data. The present review paper aims to help bridge the widening gap between modellers and field ecologists through two objectives. First, to provide a multi-criteria typology of the main neutral models, including those from population genetics that have not yet been transposed to ecology, by considering how the fundamental processes of ecological drift, speciation and migration are modelled and, specifically, how space is taken into account. Second, to review methods recently proposed to estimate models parameters from field data, a point that should be mastered to allow for broader applications.     

Spatio-temporal dissolved oxygen dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon by fuzzy pattern recognition

This paper models the dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon as a function of the physico-chemical and ecological system variables, including the submerged vegetation, nutrients, and hydrodynamics. It should be viewed as the concluding sequel to a previous paper describing the dynamics of the lagoon ecosystem [Giusti, E., Marsili-Libelli, S., 2006. An integrated model for the Orbetello lagoon ecosystem, Ecol. Model. 196, 379–394] by introducing the missing DO dynamics. The model considers the oxygen demand originating from the decay of carbonaceous and nitrogenous compounds, as well as photosynthesis and natural reaeration by winds and currents as the oxygen producing processes. With a fixed-parameter set the model could accurately reproduce each single circadian DO cycle, but in the long run it failed to extend this fit and could not accommodate the large DO fluctuations induced by the seasonal variability. In order to enhance the model flexibility, a fuzzy pattern recognition algorithm was designed to classify the circadian DO patterns into four typical behaviours, related to the season, and estimate the corresponding parameters, with the overall model output being a fuzzy combination of these sets. The paper discusses several methods to patch the parameter sets and compares their performance in tracking long-term DO variations. A final assessment of the model validity is obtained by incorporating the whole DO dynamics (model, fuzzy pattern recognition and parameter combination) into the general lagoon model and producing a consistently correct series of DO daily distributions over a yearly cycle. Thus the paper contains both a practical and a methodological aspect. The practical one is the linking of all the lagoon dynamics to the dissolved oxygen kinetics in order to clarify to what extent macroalgae and macrophytes influence the oxygen balance. The methodological aspect consists of extending the validity of short-term models to long time-horizons through a patching technique supported by fuzzy pattern recognition.     

基于SBR工艺的活性污泥呼吸速率在线软测量的研究

呼吸速率是表征活性污泥处理过程的主要变量,它直接反映了好氧生物处理过程中生物的活性和有机物的降解速率。本研究通过对呼吸速率测定原理的探讨,提出了基于SBR工艺的呼吸速率在线软测量模型,并通过实验室搭建的控制平台实现了微生物呼吸速率的在线测量。