不确定性流域污染负荷优化分配模型及其应用

流域优化决策模型以最优化建模方法指导流域管理决策过程,然而流域系统的不确定性会导致决策存在一定风险.本研究通过建立区间参数机会约束线性规划(ICILP)模型来处理流域决策过程中的不确定性,并将该模型运用于太滆运河流域优化决策中,探讨在不同违反概率下系统最优解.结果表明,随着允许入湖量约束违反概率增加,系统对污染物削减量和削减成本有所降低.由于受到经济成本和削减量约束,系统优先减小环境代价较大、削减效率较低的工程项目规模.但受到最低处理率约束,违反概率增加到一定水平时各工程项目趋于定值.虽然较高的违反概率使系统成本降低,但也会导致削减效率降低,不利于流域保护.因此,在实际管理中应根据管理需求选择合适的削减方案以达到保护流域水质的目标.     

A new methodology for the synthesis of an optimum flexible water networks

This paper presents a new optimization model for the synthesis of direct reuse/recycle water networks with data uncertainties. In this case, data uncertainties were originated from the varying parameters of the water sources and sinks, which fluctuate within a given range of values. The aim of the method is to design an optimum flexible water network (FWN) that ensures minimum fresh water consumption and yet fulfilling all process constraints and uncertain parameters. The resulting FWN also features the minimum number of pipelines, which will ease process operation and control. Due to the complexity of the problem, multistep solving method based on theorem of corner points has been developed. The FWN obtained using the proposed method also includes information on the maximum flow rate in the pipelines, which is essential for detailed network design stage. The resulting model is a mixed integer linear problem (MILP), which may be solved to obtain global optimum solution. Two case studies were used to elucidate the newly proposed method.     

The role of component arrangement in complex safety instrumented systems—A case study

The arrangement of components plays a key role in the performance of complex Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS), in which a SIS logic solver is interlocked with other logic solvers, to share a final element, for instance. The position of the components and the way they are utilized affects the reliability characteristics, such as the Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD), Spurious Trip Rate (STR), architectural sensitivity and model uncertainty. This case study uses quantitative and qualitative approaches to elaborate on various aspects of component arrangement in complex SIS. Numerous simplified models are analyzed; new classification is introduced for SIS components based on their response to demand; a set of guidelines are developed for SIS architecture design, with a focus on component arrangement; and the use of these guidelines is demonstrated in a real-life example, where an existing turbine SIS is modified to incorporate a new over-speed protection system. The simplified models and the turbine upgrade project are also used to explain the issue of unknowns and uncertainties in reliability analysis and how these issues can be addressed in SIS architecture by optimizing component arrangement.     

Adaptation to coastal hazards: the livelihood struggles of a fishing community in Kerala,India

This case study examines the coastal hazard adaptation strategies of a fishing community in a village in Kerala, India. It shows that formal adaptation strategies are highly techno‐centric, costly, and do not take into account the vulnerabilities of the fishing community. Instead, they have contributed to ecological, livelihood, and knowledge uncertainties. The adaptation strategies of the fishing community are a response to these uncertainties. However, they may not lead to the fishing community's recovery from its vulnerability contexts. This case study is primarily qualitative in nature. Data were collected through in‐depth interviews. Insights reveal that when actors with diverse values, interests, knowledge, and power evolve or design their respective adaptation strategies, the resulting interface often aggravates existing uncertainties associated with hazards. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that local discourses on coastal hazards are livelihood‐centric and socially constructed within the struggle of the fishing community to access resources and to acquire the right to development.     

线性拟合法评定水中砷的测量不确定度研究

测量不确定度是评定测量值分散程度的一项指标,对解释测量结果非常重要,对于一个分析方法若未进行不确定度评估,则无法确定测量结果间观测到的差值是否包含试验变异以外的信息,没有不确定度的信息,就存在错误处理结果的风险,甚至导致不必要的损失,不给出不确定度的测量数据是没有意义的数据.线性拟合法利用从方法确认、实验室内质控和实验室间协作定值等数据,注重从整体上、通过数月、数年等一段期间反映样品检测精密度数据直接评估测量不确定度.     

原子荧光光度法测定海水中硒的不确定度评定研究

通过实例对原子荧光法测定海水中硒的不确定度进行评定。根据(JJF 1059-1999)《测量不确定度评定与表示》中对测量和评定不确定度的要求评估了不确定度。测量不确定度的产生包括标准溶液的逐级稀释、工作曲线的非线性和原子荧光光度计的测量性能及取样体积。结果表明取样体积是导致该方法不确定度产生的主要影响因素,在测定时应加强这方面的控制,从而提高测量结果的准确性。当海水中硒的含量为1.99μg/L时,硒含量的扩展不确定度为0.40μg/L,置信水平为95%。     

水资源规划优化技术研究进展及展望

针对水资源管理与规划的发展过程,详细论述了水资源系统管理与规划中常用优化技术的国内外研究成果及应用.根据是否考虑了模型参数或者模型结构的不确定性问题,将优化模型分为确定性优化模型和不确定性优化模型,通过对不确定性优化模型的介绍指出了不确定性优化是当前水资源系统优化的热点,同时指出未来不确定性优化技术发展方向等.     

电位滴定法测定水中氯化物的不确定度评定研究

根据《测量不确定度评定与表示》（JJF 1059.1-2012）,建立了实验室电位滴定仪测定水中氯化物不确定度数学模型,分析了整个过程各种不确定度的影响因素,量化各不确定度分量,计算合成不确定度和扩展不确定度.本次测量结果为（110±6.18） mg/L,合成相对不确定度值为0.028 1,扩展不确定度为6.18 mg/L.电位滴定仪测定氯化物的不确定度主要来源是样品重复测定和滴定终点体积读数.     

重量法测定空气中PM10的不确定度评定研究

根据重量法测定空气中PM10的测量方法原理,建立数学模型,从样品现场采样与实验室测试相结合引入各不确定度分量,分析并评定用重量法测定空气中PM10的不确定度,确定合成不确定和扩展不确定度.从各不确定度分量大小,最终确定测量不确定度影响因素并加以有效控制及改进,改善测量方法和手段,从而为空气中PM10浓度测定提高检测数据准确性,提供科学检测依据.     

决策偏好对水环境污染物总量分配的影响

总量分配是制订污染物总量控制方案的基础,在总量分配方法中合理性指数法是由各因素组成的多目标分配方法,是一种新方法、新思路.由于各因素之间对应的权重系数通常采用专家打分方法确定,因此,分析主观性对总量分配结果的影响具有十分重要的意义.论文共选取30名不同领域的人员,并进行分组,分别对权重因子进行打分,分析不同类型的人员权重分布的特点及其对污染物总量分配结果的影响.研究结果表明:不同人员的权重因子对污染物总量分配具有一定的影响,对最后的决策结果产生一定的不确定性.从分配总量结果来看,TN、TP平均值分别为1.64万t·a-1、0.12万t·a-1,标准差分别为0.16万t·a-1、0.014万t·a-1,变差系数分别为0.09、0.12;从分组结果来看,管理人员一致性较好,研究人员一致性较差.总体而言,综合考虑不同领域专家的意见是保持总量分配方案的合理性和一致性的有效途径.