A Strategy for Monitoring and Managing Declines in an Amphibian Community

Although many taxa have declined globally, conservation actions are inherently local. Ecosystems degrade even in protected areas, and maintaining natural systems in a desired condition may require active management. Implementing management decisions under uncertainty requires a logical and transparent process to identify objectives, develop management actions, formulate system models to link actions with objectives, monitor to reduce uncertainty and identify system state (i.e., resource condition), and determine an optimal management strategy. We applied one such structured decision‐making approach that incorporates these critical elements to inform management of amphibian populations in a protected area managed by the U.S. National Park Service. Climate change is expected to affect amphibian occupancy of wetlands and to increase uncertainty in management decision making. We used the tools of structured decision making to identify short‐term management solutions that incorporate our current understanding of the effect of climate change on amphibians, emphasizing how management can be undertaken even with incomplete information. Estrategia para Monitorear y Manejar Disminuciones en una Comunidad de Anfibios     

Variability in Three Finnish Integrated Acidification Models

Integrated assessment models have been used to support ofnegotiations for further emission reductions of acidifyingcompounds in Europe. More attention is being paid to theuncertainties in integrated models. Data from three Finnishintegrated acidification models were compiled to estimate thevariation and relative importance of different modules. Themodels included site-specific and regional dynamic simulationsand steady-state critical load calculations for forest soilsand lakes. The main emphasis was on the variability ofemissions and the uncertainties in ecosystem effects. Althoughmaximum technically feasible emission reduction measures cantheoretically result in very low deposition, the variabilitybetween realistic scenarios is rather restricted. Thevariability of deposition loading is largely determined byreductions in nearby emission sources. The dynamicsimulations, which are often based on detailed input data,seem to retain larger variability than steady-state criticalload approaches. This study suggests that the uncertainties ineffects seem to be larger generally than other modules ofintegrated acidification models. The results indicate the needfor further work on uncertainty analysis for integrated modelsand the availability of useful model systems for furtherconfirmation of ecosystem effects.     

Incorporating uncertainty in a chemical leaching assessment

Pesticide leaching models are being used to assist in the regulation and management of pesticides by indicating their potential for leaching to groundwater. Uncertainty in model input data is not, regrettably, included in most pesticide leaching assessments. In the work described here, we use logarithmic transformations of the attenuation factor (AF), a simple process-based index model, to represent uncertainty in a pesticide leaching assessment. Characterization of a wide range of pesticides as `leachers' or `non-leachers' for a specific Hawaii hydrogeological setting is facilitated by comparing the log-transformed AF, designated AFR, for each chemical with two reference chemicals for which leaching behavior in Hawaii is known. Defining a mean and uncertainty interval for the AFR index of each chemical being ranked provides a practical method of incorporating data uncertainty into a regulatory protocol.     

Certainty and uncertainty in understanding global warming

Global warming has greatly concerned the whole world.Owing to the limitation we currently have,it is still difficult to completely understand the mechanism and physical science of climate change.Now both certainty and uncertainty coexist in the understanding of climate warming.This paper aims to summarize certainties and uncertainties in climate-warming studies,which focus on seven key problems related to human activities,namely,global warming,atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases,relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming,climate models,future climate change,2?warming threshold and tipping point in the Earth's system.We should comprehensively take into account the level of certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of climate change while adapting to and mitigating global warming and adjusting our industrial structures accordingly.This would allow us to respond to change with certainty,while avoiding the risks associated with uncertainty.     

智慧工地本质安全度评价方法研究

为对智慧工地全生命周期的本质安全度进行分析与评价,综合运用本质安全理论,构建智慧工地本质安全度评价模型。首先,根据智慧工地本质安全定义,将智慧工地本质安全度划分为初始级、简单级、标准级、成熟级和卓越级5个等级;其次,基于智慧工地的生产现状,构建包括人员管理系统、机械设备管理系统、现场监测预警系统、过程控制管理系统等4个一级指标和16个二级指标的本质安全度评价指标体系;最后,利用C-OWA算子对指标的权重进行计算,采用未确知测度评价法对系统进行综合评价。结果表明:将模型应用到西安地铁某在建项目中,得到该智慧工地项目现阶段推进状态本质安全度等级为标准级,明确该项目下一阶段提升改进的方向,为智慧工地本质安全管理的持续改进提供理论支持。     

参数化绘图系统的开发与应用

探讨了参数化绘图系统开发的基本算法、功能和要求及开发步骤,简单介绍了国内外参数化CAD的应用情况。     

重量法测定空气中PM10的不确定度评定研究

根据重量法测定空气中PM10的测量方法原理,建立数学模型,从样品现场采样与实验室测试相结合引入各不确定度分量,分析并评定用重量法测定空气中PM10的不确定度,确定合成不确定和扩展不确定度.从各不确定度分量大小,最终确定测量不确定度影响因素并加以有效控制及改进,改善测量方法和手段,从而为空气中PM10浓度测定提高检测数据准确性,提供科学检测依据.     

积分安培离子色谱法测定地下水中碘化物的不确定度评定

本文对积分安培离子色谱法测定地下水中碘化物含量的不确定度进行了评定,标准曲线采用双误差拟合法,建立了不确定度评定模型,得出几种影响测定结果的因素。     

火焰原子吸收分光光度法测定饮用水中铁和锰的不确定度评定

分析了测试过程中不确定度影响因素,其主要来源为标准溶液、标准曲线拟合、样品重复测定、分光光度计4部分。本次测量结果为:铁(0.232±0.012)mg/L;锰(0.092±0.004)mg/L,k=2(约95%置信水平)。     

电位滴定法测定水中氯化物的不确定度评定研究

根据《测量不确定度评定与表示》（JJF 1059.1-2012）,建立了实验室电位滴定仪测定水中氯化物不确定度数学模型,分析了整个过程各种不确定度的影响因素,量化各不确定度分量,计算合成不确定度和扩展不确定度.本次测量结果为（110±6.18） mg/L,合成相对不确定度值为0.028 1,扩展不确定度为6.18 mg/L.电位滴定仪测定氯化物的不确定度主要来源是样品重复测定和滴定终点体积读数.