基于非对称演化博弈的应急疏散人员行为冲突研究

为了真实地描述紧急疏散过程中人员行为冲突的演化过程,提高疏散效率,基于非对称性演化博弈模型,首先,从生理角度出发,界定人员之间的非对称性;其次,基于非对称性“鹰鸽博弈”模型,探析各人员策略选择的规律,分析非对称性因子、冲突的成本收益对系统稳定与合作状态概率的影响;最后,在此基础上,探讨博弈双方的合作心理收益对系统演化的影响。研究结果表明：非对称性因子越大,冲突的单位成本越小,越有利于人员合作行为的演化;较大的合作心理收益促使双方开展合作。非对称性“鹰鸽博弈”模型揭示应急疏散情形下人员冲突行为的演化规律,为推动疏散人员开展合作,减少冲突,提高突发事件下的疏散效率提供参考。     

Conflict,justice, and inequality: Why perceptions of leader–member exchange differentiation hurt performance in teams

To better understand why leader–member exchange (LMX) differentiation in teams may be detrimental to individual and team performance, we propose that team members' perception of LMX differentiation (PLMXD) is more important than statistical measures of LMX differentiation. Specifically, we hypothesize a multilevel model in which relationship conflict and procedural justice (climate) mediate the relationships of individual and collective PLMXDs with individual and team performance, respectively. Using a sample of 235 individuals in 53 teams, we found that individual PLMXD was negatively related to individual performance through relationship conflict perceptions, controlling for LMX. At the team level, collective PLMXD was negatively related to team performance through procedural justice climate and relationship conflict, controlling for a statistical measure of LMXD. Theoretical implications and directions for future research are explored.     

基于演化博弈的流域生态补偿利益冲突分析

资源合理利用与环境保护是维护当今经济平稳、健康、较快发展的重要前提。生态补偿是缓解经济快速发展与环境污染、生态环境破坏之间利益矛盾冲突的重要手段。它是为了制止生态破坏而征收或补偿的费用,所以不同于一般排污费和资源补偿费。本文根据补偿的类型不同,将生态补偿分为资源型生态补偿和环境型生态补偿。本文以流域生态补偿为例,将流域上游政府的策略简化为保护或不保护河流,下游政府针对上游的情况,选择"自主型"或"接受型",运用演化博弈的方法,分析流域生态补偿的特点和结果。结果表明:流域生态补偿需要中央政府的适度干预,而且关键点是保证上游地方政府收益始终最大化;中央政府干预的程度是使上游政府群的收益在保护的情况下比不保护的收益要大,而干预的结果则是使流域上下游的(保护,补偿)策略成为演化博弈的长期稳定均衡。最后本文针对我国现行流域管理体制,为我国流域生态补偿提供了政策建议,以推广我国生态补偿政策。     

Social factors mediating human–carnivore coexistence: Understanding thematic strands influencing coexistence in Central Romania

Facilitating human–carnivore coexistence depends on the biophysical environment but also on social factors. Focusing on Central Romania, we conducted 71 semi-structured interviews to explore human–bear (Ursus arctos) coexistence. Qualitative content and discourse analysis identified three socially mediated thematic strands, which showed different ways in which perceived interactions between people, bears and the environment shape coexistence. The “landscape-bear strand” described perceptions of the way in which the landscape offers resources for the bear, while the “landscape-human strand” related to ways in which humans experience the landscape. The “management strand” related to the way bears was managed. All three strands highlight both threats and opportunities for the peaceful coexistence of people and bears. Management and policy interventions could be improved by systematically considering the possible effects of interventions on each of the three strands shaping coexistence. Future research should explore the relevance of the identified thematic strands in other settings worldwide.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0760-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Smallholder Farms as Stepping Stone Corridors for Crop-Raiding Elephant in Northern Tanzania: Integration of Bayesian Expert System and Network Simulator

Crop-raiding elephants affect local livelihoods, undermining conservation efforts. Yet, crop-raiding patterns are poorly understood, making prediction and protection difficult. We hypothesized that raiding elephants use corridors between daytime refuges and farmland. Elephant counts, crop-raiding records, household surveys, Bayesian expert system, and least-cost path simulation were used to predict four alternative categories of daily corridors: (1) footpaths, (2) dry river beds, (3) stepping stones along scattered small farms, and (4) trajectories of shortest distance to refuges. The corridor alignments were compared in terms of their minimum cumulative resistance to elephant movement and related to crop-raiding zones quantified by a kernel density function. The “stepping stone” corridors predicted the crop-raiding patterns. Elephant presence was confirmed along these corridors, demonstrating that small farms located between refuges and contiguous farmland increase habitat connectivity for elephant. Our analysis successfully predicted elephant occurrence in farmland where daytime counts failed to detect nocturnal presence. These results have conservation management implications.     

Sexual conflict over fertilizations: female bluethroats escape male paternity guards

Extra-pair copulations create a potential for sexual conflict in pair-bonding birds. Here we report an experimental study of the bluethroat, Luscinia s. svecica, in which the throat ornament of males was blackened with Nyanzol D in order to reduce their sexual attractiveness and thus increase the sexual conflict over fertilizations. In an earlier study, we showed that males blackened before pairing had a lower success in attracting social mates than controls, whereas males blackened after pairing guarded their mates more intensely and sang less than controls. Here we add behavioural data from one more year on males blackened after pairing and corroborate our previous finding that the manipulation caused males to guard their mates more intensely and advertise less for additional mates. Blackened males did not suffer more intrusions from neighbouring males than did controls. Paternity analyses of the combined data set, using multilocus DNA fingerprinting and microsatellite typing, revealed that blackened males lost significantly more paternity than controls. There was also a tendency for blackened males to show a lower success in achieving extra-pair fertilizations. These results indicate that females have the upper hand in the sexual conflict over fertilizations, as females paired with unattractive males can achieve more extra-pair paternity despite the greater constraint posed by the intensified mate guarding. Still, within the blackened group, there were some indications that males guarding more intensely and singing less had higher paternity than males guarding less and singing more, suggesting a marginal positive effect of guarding for unattractive males. Male mate guarding must nevertheless be considered a best-of-a-bad-job strategy in this species. Received: 4 December 1997 / Accepted after revision: 14 June 1998     

Returning home: resettlement of formerly abducted children in Northern Uganda

This exploratory qualitative study considers the subjective resettlement experiences of children forced into armed conflict in Northern Uganda from the perspectives of 11 former child combatants and 11 adult community members. A thematic analysis was performed on the narrative data. The bioecological model was used to provide a conceptual framework for key themes. Major findings included the overarching impact of ongoing armed conflict on returnees' lives, the important role of the family in supporting children's resettlement, the harassment of former child soldiers by community members, and the community's inability to support systematically the returning children in tangible ways. This study recommends that humanitarian services at all levels strengthen the capacity of families to care for the material and psychoemotional needs of former child soldiers within their communities.     

基于公理体系的排污总量公平分配模型

批出已有的污染物排放总量“公平分配”规则中隐含的不公平性,利用环境冲突分析理论,建立了关于公平的公理本系统体系,设计出满足公理体系的排泄总量公平分配规则。研究结果对公平处理环境冲突以及改进传统环境规划的不足具有重要意义。     

Determinants of paternity success in the spider Pholcus phalangioides (Pholcidae: Araneae): the role of male and female mating behaviour

In double mating experiments, we examined whether and to what extent various male and female behavioural traits influence the course of mating and fertilization success in the cellar spider. In males, we focussed on pre-copulatory behaviour and on the rhythmic twisting movements that the male performs with his pedipalps during copulation. In females, we investigated remating decisions and the effect of female termination of copulation. Second males fertilized a high proportion of the eggs (P ₂: median 89%) despite much shorter second matings, with high variation in relative paternity success. The number of pedipalp movements (PPMs) of either male was a better predictor of paternity than copulation duration. Our results suggest that in second matings, PPMs help to remove sperm from previous males, whereas in first matings a high number of PPMs enhances fertilization success, either due to numerical sperm competition or cryptic female choice. Furthermore, we found a negative male age effect on paternity in second matings, implying that age-related deterioration of spermatozoa may promote variation in fertilization success. Female receptivity decreased significantly in second matings; only 70% of the females remated. Females that accepted a second copulation were found to terminate these much earlier and with higher probability than first matings. This suggests that the intensity of conflict between the sexes is higher in second matings. Increased intensity of sexual conflict may be responsible for stronger selection on male traits, as pre-copulatory behaviour and age only affected male copulatory performance and paternity in second matings. Electronic Publication     

Towards socially just adaptive climate governance: the transformative potential of conflict

Conflict is an important factor in ongoing climate change debates and its role in management is under increasing scrutiny. In this paper, I present the results of an advanced discourse analysis that analyses trends in the relationship between conflict and climate change. I present two primary discourses dominate discussion: (i) climate as a security risk and (ii) climate as one of many factors affecting power relations that may lead to conflict. Both narratives implicitly or explicitly discuss climate conflict as a cause–outcome relationship, and further primarily construct conflict and climate change within normative frames. Yet, conflict has transformative potential and can be incorporated into management in ways that harness its capacity to drive innovation and lead to more robust and just adaptive governance. I argue for a shift in the discursive frame from a cause– outcome-oriented approach to a process-driven approach, one that treats conflict as an integral part of adaptive governance processes, thus being more just and equitable. Such a shift in focus can lead to positive on ground climate adaptation outcomes, in ways that respect rather than are counter-intuitive to dominant political and societal imbalances and institutional structures.