Simulation of Halocarbon Production and Emissions and Effects on Ozone Depletion

/ This paper describes an integrated model that simulates future halocarbon production/emissions and potential ozone depletion. Applications and historical production levels for various halocarbons are discussed first. A framework is then presented for modeling future halocarbon impacts incorporating differences in underlying demands, applications, regulatory mandates, and environmental characteristics. The model is used to simulate the potential impacts of several prominent issues relating to halocarbon production, regulation, and environmental interactions, notably: changes in agricultural methyl bromide use, increases in effectiveness of bromine for ozone depletion, modifications to the elimination schedule for HCFCs, short-term expansion of CFC demand in low use compliance countries, and delays in Russian Federation compliance. Individually, each issue does not unequivocally represent a significant likely increase in long-term atmospheric halogen loading and stratospheric ozone depletion. In combination, however, these impacts could increase peak halogen concentrations and long-term integral halogen loading, resulting in higher levels of stratospheric ozone depletion and longer exposure to increased levels of UV radiation.KEY WORDS: Halocarbons; Ozone depletion; Montreal Protocol; Integrated assessment     

围填海造成的海岸带生态系统服务损耗的货币化评估技术探讨

从围填海负面生态影响的货币化评估的必要性和重要性入手,基于国内外相关研究的分析,将海岸带生态系统服务划分为两大类,一类是提供物质性产品和条件的供给服务;另一类是提供其他非物质性的服务,包括调节、文化和支持服务,并对供给、调节、文化和支持四类服务各自包含的具体子服务加以识别.在此基础上,针对海岸带生态系统提供的各类服务自身的特点,运用直接市场法、替代市场法、调查评价法和成果参照法,提出了围填海造成的海岸带生态系统服务损害的货币化评估技术选择的基本框架,并构建了四类服务(子服务)损耗货币化的相应评估模型.     

精明收缩理念下的资源型城市生态安全格局修复实施路径设计——以冷水江锡矿山为例

资源型城市通常面临环境恶化、景观破碎、生态流动性受阻等问题,生态系统亟需修复;同时,其作为收缩城市的重要类型之一,人口外流、经济衰退导致大量用地废弃与房屋空置,低效的用地亟需调整。以冷水江市锡矿山为例,本文将传统生态安全格局修复范式引入到收缩城市空间治理工作中,以电流密度计算结果得到的关键生态流路径和障碍点作为分期修复的依据,结合实际土地利用情况制定分区分期收缩计划,对关键障碍点进行再利用设计策略思考并检验修复效果。将生态安全格局分析和资源型城市空间收缩治理相结合,整合“生态分析—政策研究—规划设计”探索符合资源枯竭城市分步式生态修复路径,及其土地利用和空间形态分期、有序地实现精明收缩和地理设计方法。     

污染地块VOCs源衰减对室内蒸气入侵风险的影响

我国挥发性有机物(VOCs)污染地块普遍采用J&E模型预测蒸气入侵风险,该模型假定污染源含量在整个暴露周期内恒定,与其在地块中的客观变化规律不符.以某VOCs污染地块为例,采用J&E恒定源模型、 SD衰减源模型及RBCA衰减源模型,分别预测VOCs侵入建筑物室内的质量浓度及蒸气入侵风险.结果显示,J&E预测暴露期内的源含量及室内污染物质量浓度始终较高,SD和RBCA衰减源模型预测显示两者均呈指数下降.RBCA衰减源模型预测的源衰减更快,但其室内污染物质量浓度预测结果小于SD衰减源模型预测结果.SD模型中建筑物室内外压差是影响源衰减的关键参数,压差增大,污染物以对流方式侵入室内,源衰减速率增加.压差降低,污染物以扩散方式侵入室内,建筑物对源衰减的作用减弱,预测结果与J&E模型差异不明显. J&E模型预测的致癌风险和危害商最高,SD次之,RBCA最低.因此,J&E模型易高估暴露期内蒸气入侵风险,RBCA衰减源模型未考虑建筑物对源衰减的阻滞而低估风险,SD模型考虑了建筑物对源衰减的影响,更适用于评估实际场地的室内蒸气入侵风险.     

Biogas plants efficiency in purifying Indian sago factory waste water with wide C/N ratios: strategies for process water reuse

Cassava tubers produced under hot, dry and monsoon governed climate in the Salem region, Tamil Nadu, South India, consume together with the about 1000 starch extracting industries daily, 9 millions of litres of groundwater which have to be pumped from a depth of 80 m below ground level. Because of water shortage, adjacent fields are irrigated with organically highly enriched sago factories wastewater and the land becomes unproductive. One-third of the wastewater is presently channelled through a few installed biogas plants with a purification efficiency, biological oxygen demand, of only around 30%. Microbiologically and chemically analysed in- and effluents of biogas plants exhibited nutrient contents sufficient to maintain a rice crop and significantly higher population densities of fermenting bacteria and methanogenic archaea, despite C/N ratio of about 250. CO₂ and CH₄ emissions from aerobic and anaerobic incubated sago factory biogas plants in- and effluents indicated that the present purification efficiency of 30% can be further enhanced. This investigation has given clues for designing a purification system that connects the already installed biogas plants with a well-aerated, hydro-cultured, constructed wetland and a Stirling motor device for electric power gains and heat distillation, for enabling reuse of process water and saving groundwater.     

Metal scarcity and sustainability,analyzing the necessity to reduce the extraction of scarce metals

There is debate whether or not further growth of metal extraction from the earth's crust will be sustainable in connection with geologic scarcity. Will future generations possibly face a depletion of specific metals? We study whether, for which metals and to what extent the extraction rate would need to be reduced in order to be sustainable. To do so, we propose an operational definition for the sustainable extraction rate of metals. We have divided 42 metals in 4 groups according to their geologic scarcity. Applying the proposed sustainability definition to the 17 scarcest metals, shows that for almost all considered metals the global consumption of primary resources needs to be reduced to stay within sustainable limits as defined in our analysis. The 8 geologically scarcest metals are antimony, bismuth, boron, copper, gold, molybdenum, rhenium and zinc.     

环境指标研究进展与分析

对于在可持续发展框架下的环境指标的研究 ,特别是对于PSR概念模型、联结宏观经济与环境的指标、有关自然资源消耗的指标、与空间特征相关的环境指标以及环境指标的整合 5个方面 ,进行了综述与分析 ,同时提出了笔者的观点。      

Background monitoring and long-range transport of atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 at Kosan, Korea

The background concentrations of atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12were monitored to assess their impact on stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming from September 1995 to March 1999 at Kosan, Korea, located at eastern margin of the Asian Continent. The concentrations of atmospheric CFC-11 at Kosan have decreased slightly, at a rate of –2.5 pptv yr^-1, over the period in response to the Montreal Protocol. The CFC-12 mixing ratio at Kosan continues to increase in the atmosphere at a rate of 5.7 pptv yr^-1 despite international regulations, because of its extreme atmosphere persistence. Recent trends ofthese two chlorofluorocarbons at Kosan, Korea were concordant with those of the northern hemispheric background monitored unitat Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The maximum seasonal mean mixing ratios of CFC-11 and CFC-12 at Kosan, Korea, were 270±4 pptv inthe spring and 538±9 pptv in the winter, and the corresponding seasonal minima were 267±7 and 529±12 pptv. This occurred in the summer and was due to southeasterlywinds from the northwestern Pacific Ocean. By performing a three-day isentropic backward trajectory analysis, it was shownthat air masses at Kosan, and with the exception of summer, mainly originated from central and northern China. In particular, the mixing ratios of these two contaminant speciesare closely related with their air mass trajectories.     

用参数方程的方法计算氟氯碳化合物的臭氧消耗潜势

在研究同类氟氯碳化合物臭氧消化潜势之间的差异，探讨ＯＤＰ与有关参数必然的内在联系的基础上，建立起两类求算ＨＣＦＣｓ，ＣＦＣｓ的ＯＤＰ的参数方程。一类是以大气寿命τ为参变量的计算ＯＤＰ的参数方程，与之相应，发展了一种仅含氟氯碳化合物分解反应的得     

Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.