An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

碳责任账户的目标原则、分配逻辑与框架构建：账户建立

随着全球环境问题日趋严重,企业和消费者日益认识到减缓气候变化的紧迫性。作为经济活动的主要参与者,减少温室气体排放已经成为任何单个企业及其供应链的巨大挑战。供应链的所有参与者都需要为气候减缓做出努力。现有的碳排放责任核算大多从企业的生产方面入手。最终消费者作为供应链的重要参与者,是所有生产者的最终服务对象,同样具有不可忽视的碳减排作用以及应承担的碳减排责任。本文提出以产品为导向,考虑产品生产过程中的直接碳排放和间接碳排放,建立产品碳排放基准值,对基于供应链的所有参与主体进行责任分配,进而建立基于供应链的碳责任账户。本文构建的责任体系框架具有更广泛、更有前景的应用潜力。     

The effects on welfare of the imposition of individual transferable quotas on a heterogeneous fishing fleet

This paper examines the determination of effort levels, the rental price of quotas and the number of participants in a fishery managed with a total allowable catch and individual transferable quotas. How these variables change is determined for three phases of the management process. Potential participants in the fishery are assumed to be heterogeneous in their catching capabilities so that almost all active fishers earn positive net profits from fishing activities. It is shown that these quasirents are reduced during any of the management phases considered here. The impact of free allocations of permanent quota rights on fishers’ welfare is also considered. This may increase the welfare of all fishers if the allocation is based on catch history. However, an example is provided where the welfare of some highliners is reduced when the allocation is based on effort history.     

Fitness consequences of body-size-dependent host species selection in a generalist ectoparasitoid

In insect parasitoids, offspring fitness is strongly influenced by the adult females choice of host, particularly in ectoparasitoids that attack non-growing host stages. We quantified the fitness consequences of size-dependent host species selection in Dirhinus giffardii, a solitary ectoparasitoid of tephritid fruit fly pupae. We first showed a positive correlation between the size of emerged D. giffardii wasps and the size of their host fruit fly species (in order of decreasing size): Bactrocera latifrons, B. cucurbitae, B. dorsalis or Ceratitis capitata. We then manipulated individual wasps to show that the parasitoid preferred to attack the largest (B. latifrons) to the smallest (C. capitata) host species when provided with a choice, and laid a greater proportion of female eggs in B. latifrons than in C. capitata. There were no differences in developmental time or offspring survival between individuals reared from these two host species. Finally, we compared the foraging efficiency of large versus small wasps (reared from B. latifrons vs C. capitata) under two different laboratory conditions: high versus low host habitat quality, given that realized fecundity in parasitoids may be influenced by either egg-limited or time-limited factors. Under both conditions, large wasps parasitized more hosts than did small ones as a consequence of high searching efficiency in the host-poor habitat, and high capacity for adjusting egg maturation in response to host availability in the host-rich habitat. Considering the flexibility of body growth, the apparent lack of cost of achieving large body size in either development or survival, and the strong dependence of realized reproductive success on a females size, we argue that body size may be a key to understanding evolution of host species selection in ectoparasitoids. We also discuss constraints upon the evolution of size-dependent host species selection in parasitoids.Communicated by D. Gwynne     

Within-brood patterns of paternity and paternal behavior in red-winged blackbirds

We video-taped male and female red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) feeding individual chicks in order to test the hypothesis that food might be differently allocated to within-pair offspring and extra-pair young. We found no evidence that paternity influenced the allocation of food by either males or females. Both males and females fed male offspring significantly more, but there was no tendency for paternity to be skewed by gender. Females fed older offspring significantly more, whereas males did not; extra-pair fertilizations, however, were not associated with lay or hatch order of the chicks. Given that males do not appear to discriminate within-pair from extra-pair offspring directly, these results are consistent with current theory on the effect of paternity on paternal behavior. We discuss briefly some of the possible reasons why discrimination might be lacking in red-winged blackbirds and in other species in which the possibility of discrimination of paternity and allocation of paternal behavior has been studied.     

Evolution of extreme polyandry in the honeybee Apis mellifera L.

A number of hypotheses have been proposed to explain the evolution of multiple mating in the honeybee queen. In particular, the consequences of reduced intracolonial relatedness provide plausible explanations for multiple mating with up to ten drones, but fail to account for the much higher mating frequencies observed in nature. In this paper, we propose an alternative mechanism which builds on non-linear relationships between intracolonial frequencies in genotypic worker specialization and colony fitness. If genes for any worker specialization confer an advantage on colony fitness only when they are rare, this would require a stable mix of sperm from a few drones which contribute that trait, and many which do not. To ensure both specific, low within-colony proportions of “rare specialist” genes, and to reduce random variation of these proportions would require mating with high numbers of drones. The quantitative implementation shows that moderate to very high numbers of matings are required to exploit colony advantages from genotypic allocation of workers to rare tasks. Extreme polyandry thus could result from colony selection dependent on the intracolonial frequency of rare genetic specialists. Received: 30 January 1998 / Accepted after revision: 7 October 1998     

PREFERENCES FOR ALLOCATING RIVER RECREATION USE1

Allocating river recreation use to commercial and private sectors on white water rivers has been highly controversial. How this process is implemented may affect not only the availability of recreation opportunities to individual users, but may also negatively impact the user's desire to escape from the pressures and stresses of everyday life. In a study of users of Idaho's Middle Fork of the Salmon River, an Even-Pool allotment technique was preferred over others by the commercial, private, and rejectee individuals sampled. A lottery technique for rationing private use permits was preferred by private users and rejectees, while commercial users preferred Advance Reservation. No relationship was found between the users' stress release/escape expectations and their preferences for the different allotment and rationing techniques studies. Such results suggest that river managers may have considerable latitude in selecting allocation techniques that do not adversely affect on-site recreation experiences.     

基于DEA的我国能源R＆D经费配置评价研究

在对我国能源R＆D强度分析的基础上,运用DEA理论的C^2R模型对我国能源产业及其5个行业2001--2010年的R＆D经费投入、产出状况进行了实证分析。研究中用R＆D经费存量值来代替当年的R＆D经费值,得到各年的R＆D经费配置的相对效率和规模收益情况,找出R＆D经费配置配置存在的问题,有利于对我国能源R＆D经费的投人产出结构进行分析,提出优化国家能源R＆D经费配置的对策和建议。     

An agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in agricultural systems of the argentine pampas

The Argentine Pampas, one of the main agricultural areas in the world, recently has undergone significant changes in land use and structural characteristics of agricultural production systems. Concerns about the environmental and societal impacts of the changes motivated development of an agent-based model (ABM) to gain insight on processes underlying recent observed patterns. The model is described following a standard protocol (ODD). Results are discussed for an initial set of simplified simulations performed to understand the processes that generated and magnified the changes in the Pampas. Changes in the structure of agricultural production and land tenure seem to be driven by differences among farmers’ ability to generate sufficient agricultural income to remain in business. In turn, as no off-farm or credit is modeled, economic sustainability is tied to initial resource endowment (area cropped). Farmers operating small areas are economically unviable and must lease out their farms to farmers operating larger areas. This leads to two patterns: (a) a concentration of production (fewer farmers operating larger areas) and, (b) an increase in the area operated by tenants. The simulations showed an increase of soybean area, linked to the higher profitability of this crop. Despite the stylized nature of initial simulations, all emerging patterns are highly consistent with changes observed in the Pampas.