塔里木河中游段治理中的牧区水利建设

塔里木河中下游地区生态环境急剧恶化,最主要的原因是中游段河水近一半21×108m3被人为的散失,造成下游河水所剩无几,致使尾闾台特玛湖干涸。解决的根本办法是将中下游段两岸的农牧民迁出,实现人为耗水为零。近期切实可行的办法是积极开展牧区水利建设,改变牧业生产方式,集中高效利用塔河水资源,发展人工草地,改良天然草场,实现牧业生产生态环境的协调发展,人与自然和谐相处。     

加快牧区水利建设步伐,为草原生态保护提供水资源保障

通过对新疆主要牧区草地资源面临的生态问题以及水资源分析,阐述了人、畜、草、水的关系,结合《新疆牧区草原生态保护水资源保障规划》,阐明了牧区水利建设在牧区草原生态保护中所起到的重要作用,提出了牧区水利建设的总体思路和布局。     

陕西佛坪、宁陕"6.9"山地自然灾害考察研究

2002年6月9日,陕西南部佛坪、宁陕等地因特大暴雨引发了极其强烈的泥石流、山洪等山地自然灾害.本文考察研究了这次泥石流、山洪等山地自然灾害产生的条件,分布与活动特点以及未来发展变化的趋势.     

旅游灾害事件成灾模型的建立及解析

在我国旅游业蓬勃发展的今天,旅游灾害事件频发已引起了相关部门的高度重视和全社会的关注.根据灾害学原理和对旅游灾害事件成灾机制的研究,建立旅游灾害事件成灾模型,将在成功防范和减轻旅游灾害事件的损失方面发挥巨大作用.该模型主要就旅游灾害事件的基础条件、旅游灾害的诱发因素、旅游灾害的承灾体、旅游灾害损失类型、以及防灾减灾有效措施等方面的问题进行了分析和探讨.     

事物安全演化过程的基本理论研究

安全状态的演化过程是事物发展变化过程的重要组成部分.事物的安全演化过程符合从量变到质变的原理,即服从"安全流变-突变"规律.基于事物"安全流变-突变"规律,建立理论模型,并分析和描述事物的安全演化过程.事物"安全流变-突变"规律的研究为揭示事物的安全本质规律奠定了基础.     

旅游开发中的区域联动战略--以安徽省"两山一湖"地区为例

阐述了旅游区域联动发展战略的内涵、类型、原则及意义,分析了安徽省"两山一湖"地区实施旅游区域联动战略的必要性、可能性和发展现状,提出了若干对策.     

大学生沉溺网络透析及防范措施

因沉溺网上聊天、交友、玩游戏、看色情而影响大学生学习、生活、身体健康,以致诱发犯罪的问题如洪水猛兽席卷而来.防止大学生沉溺网络,走向犯罪是当前社会、学校、家庭不容忽视的问题.立法、执法、管理、教育应形成合力.     

Discriminate Analysis for Dust Storm Prediction in the Gobi and Steppe Regions in Mongolia

A discriminate analysis method for probability forecast of dust storms in Mongolia has been developed. The prediction method uses data recorded at 23 meteorological stations in the Gobi and steppe regions of Mongolia, including surface air pressure and geo-potential height at the 500-hPa level on grid points, and weather maps from 1975 to 1990. Weather elements such as air temperature, pressure, geo-potential height etc, which influence the formation of dust storms, are prepared as predictors. To select the most informative/important predictors (variables), we used a mean correlation matrix of variables together with the Mahalonobis distance, and correlation coefficients between dust storms and predictors with an orthogonalization for removing correlated predictors. The most informative predictors for dust storm prediction are intensities of surface cyclones and migratory anticyclones, passage of cold fronts, the horizontal gradients of the surface air pressure in the cold frontal zone, cyclonic circulations from the ground surface up to the 500-hPa level, the geo-potential height at 500-hPa level and its temporal changes. Selected predictors are used in discriminate analysis for formulating dust storm prediction equations. Sandstorm data have been classified into three classes, viz., strong, moderate and weak dust storms, depending on their intensities, durations and areas covered. Predictions of the probabilities of dust storm occurrence use the prediction equations for each class. The prediction is made from 12 hours to 36 hours. Verification of the probability forecasts of dust storms is also shown. The accuracy of forecasts is 72.2–79.9% with the data used for developing equations (dependent variables), in contrast to 67.1–72.0% with unrelated data for deriving equations (independent variables).     

Arts as a vehicle for community building and post‐disaster development

Use of the arts in international aid is common in an ad hoc form, but it has not been systematically theorised or evaluated. The arts have the potential to be a culturally contextualised and sustainable intervention for adults and children in the aftermath of war or disaster. On the micro level, the arts are a method to enable the retrieval and reprocessing of traumatic memories that are often encoded in images rather than in words. On a macro level, they can help to reconstruct a group narrative of a disaster as well as mobilise people back into control of their lives. This paper researches a long‐term project using arts in Sri Lanka following the civil war and tsunami. A central finding is the need to understand arts within their cultural context, and their usefulness in strengthening the voices and problem‐solving capacities of the victims of the disaster.     

The role of digital data entry in participatory environmental monitoring

Many argue that monitoring conducted exclusively by scientists is insufficient to address ongoing environmental challenges. One solution entails the use of mobile digital devices in participatory monitoring (PM) programs. But how digital data entry affects programs with varying levels of stakeholder participation, from nonscientists collecting field data to nonscientists administering every step of a monitoring program, remains unclear. We reviewed the successes, in terms of management interventions and sustainability, of 107 monitoring programs described in the literature (hereafter programs) and compared these with case studies from our PM experiences in Australia, Canada, Ethiopia, Ghana, Greenland, and Vietnam (hereafter cases). Our literature review showed that participatory programs were less likely to use digital devices, and 2 of our 3 more participatory cases were also slow to adopt digital data entry. Programs that were participatory and used digital devices were more likely to report management actions, which was consistent with cases in Ethiopia, Greenland, and Australia. Programs engaging volunteers were more frequently reported as ongoing, but those involving digital data entry were less often sustained when data collectors were volunteers. For the Vietnamese and Canadian cases, sustainability was undermined by a mismatch in stakeholder objectives. In the Ghanaian case, complex field protocols diminished monitoring sustainability. Innovative technologies attract interest, but the foundation of effective participatory adaptive monitoring depends more on collaboratively defined questions, objectives, conceptual models, and monitoring approaches. When this foundation is built through effective partnerships, digital data entry can enable the collection of more data of higher quality. Without this foundation, or when implemented ineffectively or unnecessarily, digital data entry can be an additional expense that distracts from core monitoring objectives and undermines project sustainability. The appropriate role of digital data entry in PM likely depends more on the context in which it is used and less on the technology itself.